Amazon's share price has set a new high in cloud computing and hopes to achieve high growth
In the US stock market, Amazon has risen 67% from its low point in February this year, with a total market value of US $382 billion, ranking fourth among US listed companies. In recent years, Amazon's e-commerce business has maintained a steady growth, and AWS, the cloud computing business, is more prominent. AWS revenue in the second quarter of this year increased 58% year on year
In addition, Alibaba Cloud's revenue has maintained three digit year-on-year growth since the second quarter of last year. Cloud computing is the foundation of the information economy. Driven by the government and enterprises, demand is entering an explosive period. The upgrade of broadband network speed will help the development of cloud services, and the information security strategy will also promote the cooperation between foreign cloud computing giants and domestic enterprises, bringing opportunities to domestic enterprises.
Gartner believes that the cloud service market will grow from 52.2 billion dollars in 2015 to 143.5 billion dollars in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 22 percent
Relevant Concept Unit:
Halo New Network: cooperation with AWS begins, and cloud computing business becomes the future performance explosion point
After the consolidated statement of CICC Cloud, IDC and value-added service revenue increased 32.78% year on year. The gross profit margin increased slightly. At present, IDC and its value-added service business are still the main source of the company's revenue, accounting for 37.09% of the revenue and 63.42% of the operating profit. According to the company's interim report, IDC and value-added service business grew steadily in the first half of the year, and after the consolidated statement of CICC Cloud, it realized 302 million revenue, The year-on-year growth was 32.78%, and the gross profit margin increased by 1 point compared with the report data of last year; The company is currently building three new data centers, which are respectively implemented by the company's three wholly-owned subsidiaries, Halo Cloud Valley, Halo New Network (Shanghai) and Dexin Zhiyuan. After the completion of the fund-raising project, the scale of the company's IDC data center will be further expanded, and the customer service ability will be further improved; The main customer groups of the company are Amazon, Dangdang and other Internet customers. Through the acquisition of Zhongjin Cloud, the company has obtained a batch of stable and high-quality high-end customers in the financial industry, and the industry strength has been further consolidated.
The biggest focus in the future is to cooperate with AWS and lay out the whole cloud computing industry chain: in the first half of the year, the company's IaaS cloud computing service revenue reached 41.13 million yuan, with a significant increase in scale, gross margin of 95.72%, and gross margin of 38.84% year-on-year
The cooperation between AWS and the company has solved the problem of limited operation of AWS in China. In the future, the company will pay Amazon according to the agreement of both parties, and Amazon will provide technical services, support and authorization to the company. The combination of AWS's leading technology and the company's operating ability accumulated in China for many years, customer service ability, and the broad space of China's cloud computing market in the future will provide a strong guarantee for the rapid growth of the company's performance. AWS contributed $7.88 billion in global revenue to Amazon in 2015, up nearly 70% year on year
If AWS maintains a growth rate of more than 60% in the next three years, its global revenue in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will reach 126.08/20173/32276 billion dollars. Under the condition of limited operation, AWS's revenue scale in China in 2015 was about 156 million yuan, its market share in China's public cloud IAAS was only about 2%, and it only accounted for 0.3% of AWS's global revenue (roughly estimated by the value of 1 dollar=6 yuan). Assuming that AWS China's revenue share in the global revenue will increase in the next three years after the operation problems in China are solved, Conservative forecasts are 4%, 6% and 8%. At present, the operating rights of Halo New Network and AWS in Beijing are signed. Assuming that the future revenue of Beijing will account for 50% of the revenue of China, the operating revenue of AWS in Beijing will reach about 1.513 billion yuan, 3.63 billion yuan and 7.746 billion yuan in the next three years. The company can share part of the operating revenue, assuming 10%, The company's revenue from AWS cooperation in 2016-2018 will probably reach 151/363/774 million yuan.
Valuation: It is estimated that the growth rate of the company's operating revenue in 2016~18 will be 175.40%, 50.99%, 49.15%, and the growth rate of net profit will be 101.99%, 77.34%, 87.83%; The net profit is RMB 229 million, 406 million and 763 million respectively. It is predicted that PE will be 120 times, 100 times and 70 times in 2016, 2017 and 2018, corresponding to the target stock price of 38.01 yuan, 56.17 yuan and 73.86 yuan. There is still room to double the stock price in the future.
