Overview: The Palestine Israel conflict continues to escalate, and the fluctuation of international oil price intensifies

Overview: The Palestine Israel conflict continues to escalate, and the fluctuation of international oil price intensifies

The new round of Palestine Israel conflict has lasted for more than a week, pushing the international crude oil price into an upward channel. The oil price in New York rose significantly on the 13th, and the price of New York light crude oil futures for November delivery rose $4.78 to close at $87.69 per barrel. The future trend of oil prices has become the focus of attention.

The Middle East is rich in oil reserves, accounting for more than one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade. The sharp rise in geopolitical risks has made the crude oil market "on pins and needles".

On the 13th, the Israeli military demanded that millions of residents in the north of the Palestinian Gaza Strip withdraw to the south, saying that the Israeli military would launch "major" operations in Gaza City in the next few days. Crude oil prices rose sharply on the day.

The monthly report on the crude oil market in October released by the International Energy Agency shows that although the current international crude oil supply is not directly affected by the Palestinian Israeli conflict, as the conflict continues, the market fear may intensify.

Analysts pointed out that at present, the oil market is facing many positive factors, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia extending the period of voluntary production reduction to the end of the year, as well as negative factors, such as lower than expected global macroeconomic indicators and the decline of gasoline delivery in the United States to a two-year low. These factors will have an important impact on the future trend of oil prices.

At the same time, in the fourth quarter of this year, oil demand will face a decrease in tourism and an increase in seasonal inventories. The monthly report of the International Energy Agency on the crude oil market in October shows that the crude oil supply is expected to remain relatively short in the fourth quarter, but if the Saudi Arabia and Russia's production reduction measures are cancelled in January next year, the crude oil supply may eventually be surplus.

The impact of the Palestine Israel conflict on the surrounding important oil producing countries and the response measures of these countries have become the focus of the market. Analysts pointed out that in the context of the continued escalation of the Palestinian Israeli conflict, the regional spillover effect is gradually emerging, which will also become the biggest uncertainty affecting the trend of international oil prices in the future.

Lin Boqiang, president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, said that without the participation of other countries, the impact of conflict on oil prices is limited; But if Iran is involved, oil prices may rise sharply.

Alan Gerd, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Consulting, a British energy research company, believes that if the conflict expands, the most direct market impact may be that the United States takes stricter sanctions on Iran's exports.

Bob McNally, president of the US Lapidain Energy Consulting Company, said in an interview with the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) that if Iran was involved in the conflict, the oil price might rise by $5 to $10.

key word: Palestine Israel conflict International energy Oil price fluctuation Oil price may Crude oil supply