Stable prices and continuous recovery of consumption - focus on CPI and PPI data in September

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th, in September, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat from a year earlier, up 0.2% month on month; The national producer price index (PPI) fell 2.5% year on year, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, and domestic prices remained stable.

"In September, the consumer market continued to recover, and CPI continued to rise month on month. However, affected by the higher base of comparison in the same period of last year, the year-on-year growth turned flat." Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.

In China's CPI "basket" of goods, food accounts for a relatively high proportion. It was mainly affected by the higher food prices compared with the same period last year. In September, food prices fell by 3.2% year on year, 1.5 percentage points more than that of last month.

On a month on month basis, the market was well supplied before the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day this year. In September, the increase in food prices was slightly lower than the historical average over the same period. According to Dong Lijuan's analysis, the overlapping double festivals of the beginning of the school season are approaching, and the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs are up 3.3% and 3.2% month on month respectively; The prices of pork, fresh fruit, poultry and other food products were basically stable.

Pork prices account for a high proportion in food prices and have an important impact on CPI operation. Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the fourth quarter is the peak season for pork consumption. As the weather turns cold, consumption demand such as curing will effectively support pig prices. Pork prices may show seasonal fluctuations and narrow fluctuations as a whole, but the average prices in the autumn and winter of this year will be lower than the level of the same period last year.

Statistics show that in September, non food prices rose 0.7% year on year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; It rose 0.2% month on month, the same increase as last month. Dong Lijuan analyzed that domestic gasoline prices rose 2.4% month on month due to the upward impact of international oil prices; The autumn clothes were renewed in the new season, and the clothing price rose 0.9% month on month.

It is estimated that in September, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year on year, the same increase as last month. "Since this year, the year-on-year growth of China's core CPI has been fluctuating at about 1%, which shows that China's consumer prices have remained stable despite structural differentiation," said Wang Likun, associate researcher of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Since this year, domestic prices have generally been running at a low level, with CPI rising 0.4% year on year in the first three quarters. However, there were positive changes in the price operation in the third quarter. In August, CPI increased 0.1% from 0.3% lower than the previous month. In September, mainly due to the high base of last year, CPI increased from 0.3% lower than the previous month. On a month on month basis, CPI kept rising from July to September.

Cong Liang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that attention should be paid to the low price operation, but judging from the price level, demand recovery, economic growth, money supply and other factors, there is no so-called deflation in China's economy, and there will be no deflation later.

From the perspective of industrial producer prices, the year-on-year decline of PPI has continued to expand since this year due to the decline of international commodity prices, insufficient domestic demand and higher base compared with the same period last year. However, with the improvement of market supply and demand, the decline of PPI in July narrowed for the first time, the decline of PPI in August continued to narrow, and the decline of PPI in September further narrowed.

On a month on month basis, PPI kept rising in September, rising 0.4% month on month, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the international crude oil price continued to rise, driving the price of domestic oil and natural gas exploitation industry to rise by 4.1%, and the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry to rise by 3.1%. Improved demand and tight supply pushed up the prices of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries by 1.2%, and coal mining and washing industries by 1.1%.

PPI is directly related to enterprise benefits. Recently, PPI has continued to rise, which helps improve the production and operation of enterprises and boost their confidence in development. In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rebounded for four consecutive months, rising to the expansion range for the first time since April; The expected index of production and business activities is 55.5%, which continues to be in a high boom zone.

"With the implementation of policies and measures to promote the development of industrial economy, the production and operation of enterprises have been steadily promoted, the demand for industrial products has gradually recovered, the superimposed base effect has weakened, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to narrow." Wang Likun said.

In the past Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the consumer market was very popular and energetic, which will strongly support the stable operation of prices in the later period.

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