Uneven hot and cold property markets during the "Double Festival" holiday

Reporter Sun Wei

"To my surprise, Wuhan is the best selling city for this long vacation house!" Fan Yijie, a senior analyst at the China Finger Research Institute, told reporters recently with the property market inventory data.

How did the real estate market perform during the super long "Double Festival" holiday? Is the future market trend worth looking forward to? Recently, the reporter of China Consumer Daily combed and interviewed this.

Developers actively promote

The favorable policies of the real estate market, such as "house recognition without loan recognition", were implemented and superimposed on the "double festival" holiday. All major real estates were sold with full power by taking advantage of the marketing nodes.

The person in charge of sales of a new market in Beijing Fengtai Lize Business District told the reporter that during the long holiday, the company planned many owner centered marketing activities, and the number of visitors and turnover increased. At ordinary times, the daily average number of visitors to the sales office is about 10 groups, and 20 to 30 units can be sold every month. "This holiday, the project receives more than 50 groups of house visitors on a daily basis, which is several times more than usual. Our team members do not rest for a day, and customers are mainly introduced by old owners." He said.

"Some families with housing purchase records want to buy a house, which was previously identified as a second set of housing. The bank implemented the policy of second set of housing, resulting in their insufficient down payment funds and dare not go out to see the house." The person in charge told reporters that after the implementation of the new policy, this part of customers dared to go out to see the house, because the proportion of customers visiting the new policy was up to 30%.

According to the reporter, during the National Day holiday, many new housing projects in Beijing launched discounts, concessions, special offers and other preferential activities, but the overall sales promotion was relatively small, focusing on activities such as "reducing the price immediately", "buying a house and giving away household appliances", and "buying a house and taking out mobile phones".

It is worth mentioning that although the new housing market in Beijing is hot this holiday, the project differentiation is obvious. "The new house market in Beijing is a double sky. There are projects that have achieved sales of 7.3 billion yuan in 10 minutes, and there are also projects that have not sold a single apartment. Overall, the transaction price of new houses in Beijing is relatively firm, and there are few price reduction promotions except for individual buildings that are about to be liquidated." Chen, the store manager of Xishan District, Central Plains, Beijing, told reporters.

According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, during the "Double Festival" period, 116 commercial residential units were signed in Beijing, with the average daily signing volume down 48.2% compared with the same period last year. "Due to the lag of online sign data, from the perspective of subscription, 654 new houses were subscribed in Beijing, and the average daily subscription volume was 4.0% lower than that of last year. The performance was relatively stable," Fan Yijie told reporters.

On the whole, the enthusiasm of developers around the "Double Festival" holiday has improved, and enterprises have increased project incentives. The number of project visits has increased compared with that before the festival. However, in the case of holiday travel and market confidence has not been significantly restored, the difference between cities and regions is still serious. Except for the high heat of the property market in core cities or mature regions, The overall trading volume was average. According to the data of the China Index, the average daily transaction area of 35 representative cities during the "Double Festival" holiday decreased by about 20% compared with that of last year and the same period of 2019.

The transaction data in Wuhan is striking

During the "Double Festival" holiday, the performance of the property market in different places was different. Wuhan, Shanghai and Guangzhou, driven by favorable policies and the supply side of real estate, saw a rapid recovery of real estate sentiment.

According to Gao Yuansheng, Executive Deputy General Manager of East China of China Index Research Institute, the number of new houses in Shanghai has increased significantly, and the proportion of hot properties has increased. During the long holiday, there were a total of 12 sets of evidence collection subscriptions, of which 5 sets triggered the point system, and the subscription proportion was more than 200%, most of which were hot plate projects. The subscription performance of other suburban projects was poor, and the popularity continued to differentiate.

Guangzhou's purchase restriction optimization policy is favorable and superimposed on the "double section" marketing node. Developers are very active in pushing goods. More than 20 buildings have launched various marketing activities, focusing on project promotion and promotion. Individual buildings have adopted centralized opening. From the perspective of the market as a whole, the popularity of the market and the number of visitors increased significantly, especially in Panyu and Huangpu, where the purchase restriction policy was liberalized, attracting many consumers to come to see the house. The overall atmosphere has improved significantly compared with that before the policy optimization. However, the market transaction differentiation is still in progress, and the transaction in Zengcheng, Conghua and other peripheral areas, which were not limited to purchase, was relatively quiet.

Wuhan became the city with the most striking transaction data this holiday. Statistics show that 1895 new houses were sold in Wuhan during the "Double Festival" holiday, and 237 new houses were sold daily. The "Double Festival" holiday coincided with the introduction of the "Ten Rules of the Han Dynasty" and the 41st Housing Trade Fair. All major properties were vigorously promoted. At the same time, some regional affordable housing centralized online signings were superimposed, with a significant increase of 251% and 113% compared with the National Day holiday in 2022 and 2021.

In Shenzhen, only a few online red houses are popular, and most of the sales offices have a general atmosphere. According to the monitoring of the China Index, from September 29 to October 6, 34500 square meters of new residential buildings were sold in Shenzhen, down 46% from the same period last year, and 41% from the week before the festival. The market is still in a wait-and-see mood.

The market is expected to recover moderately

The "golden nine, silver ten" is the traditional sales season of the property market. At the end of August, several ministries and commissions jointly issued a document to include the "house recognition, no loan recognition" into the "one city, one policy" toolbox, and at the same time, the lower limit of the down payment ratio of commercial loans for the first and second sets of housing in China was reduced to 20% and 30%. Since then, all regions have grasped the "golden nine, silver ten" window period, and constantly accelerated the pace of policy implementation. A series of policies have been issued intensively, which has positively driven the sentiment of the real estate market. In September, the market activity in core cities improved, and the policy effect began to show, but the national market sales scale was still low. According to the data of the China Index, the area of newly built commercial residential buildings in key 100 cities increased by more than 10% month on month in September, down by about 20% year on year, but the absolute scale is still at a low level in recent years.

Then, facing the "Silver Ten" and the arrival of the fourth quarter of this year, what is the future trend of the real estate market?

Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research of China Index Research Institute, believes that in the short term, there is room for optimization of demand side and supply side policies in the future, such as reducing down payment ratio in core cities, relaxing purchase restrictions, optimizing the standard of ordinary housing, and the supply side supports real estate enterprises to revitalize existing assets, revitalize existing idle plots, and support urban village reconstruction in megacities. She believes that this round of market recovery will take longer, the repair process is slow and gentle, and reasonable expectations need to be maintained. It is expected that the decline in transaction volume in the fourth quarter is expected to gradually narrow, and the sales area of commercial housing nationwide may be less than 1.3 billion square meters in 2023; If the short-term policy optimization is in place, and the series of measures for urban village reconstruction are implemented quickly, it is expected that the market will be bottomed out in the first half of 2024.

Guo Yi, the chief analyst of Heshuo, told reporters that the number of domestic tourists during the "Double Festival" holiday reached a record high, and people used the holiday to achieve the purpose of travel and leisure, reducing the consumption of house purchase. This shows that people are more cautious and rational about mass consumption, and are willing to spend more time and cost on entertainment consumption. The change of consumption mode will create certain negative effects on the property market for a long time in the future.

Guo Yi further pointed out that since the introduction of the policy of "buy houses but not buy loans", the effectiveness of the policy has gradually faded. At present, the turnover of new and second-hand houses in Beijing has returned to the level before the policy. If the follow-up property market does not continue to follow more easing policies, the turnover may remain at a low level.

key word: Property market a new house Double knot policy properties for sale