David Brady said in the latest "Thorough Money" podcast that the S&P 500 index is expected to plummet from more than 5000 points to a low of 3500 points in 18 months.
Brady is a fund manager, a former foreign exchange trader, and the author of the FIPEST Report, which analyzes metals and miners. He believed that the stock was seriously overvalued, and investors faced much greater downside risks than potential upside risks It seems to be a foregone conclusion 。
However, he predicted that the Federal Reserve would step in to reverse the coming decline by lowering interest rates and increasing the balance sheet - especially because the Biden administration hopes to have a strong stock market and economy in the November elections.
However, he warned that the rebound would not be sustained in view of the continued pressure on the economy at home and abroad.
Brady said, mine viewpoint Is short-term Internal meeting 20-30% down, but the Federal Reserve meeting Respond as always, then The market rose. After the election, equity market Will receive to attack 。
He's talking His office "I expect the stock market will fall because of the events happening in the economy and other parts of the world," said the expected post election decline.
Brady's list of concerns includes that the inflation rate has climbed to 3.5% in the past two months, which means that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates for a longer time. He also pointed out that bankruptcy and auto loan default led to an increase in auto recovery rate, credit card delinquency rate and a decline in house prices.
He said, for me, these are all economic Stagnation And added that a number of foreign wars and pressure on the banking industry had created a gloomy background.
Brady said, I believe that the market has also stagnated. I am follow Some signals ， They will tell me ， It's time Withdrew from it 。 He pointed out that these signals include S&P falling below 5000 points or yield curve reversal.
He's talking about countless resistance He said that they would eventually destroy The most overvalued stock market since the Great Depression.
As for Brady's prediction after the election, he said that S&P might plummet to about 1000 points, erasing the increase of the index for more than 14 years and restoring it to the level of 2010.
He said, I really see that we can get at least 80% of the corrections this time.
Brady is not the only one Prophetic pessimism People. Michael Burry of The Big Short, Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder of GMO, and Gary Shilling, the famous forecaster, all issued terrible warnings about the future of the market and economy.
Nevertheless, it is worth emphasizing that the U.S. economy and stocks are to a large extent Counterattack The opponents. Earlier this year, the stock market hit a record high, while inflation dropped sharply, and the unemployment rate was still close to a historical low, Economics Strong growth.
When the stock market recovers, open an account first! Intelligent fixed investment, condition sheet, individual stock radar... for you>>
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Yang Chunduan
