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Source: China Fund News
China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei
On April 16, more than 700 individual shares in the A-share market closed at the closing limit, and the 3000 point Shanghai Index faced another test.
After hours, the reporter interviewed several fund companies to interpret the market. The respondent believes that the adjustment of A-shares is affected by multiple factors, such as capital panic caused by the new delisting regulations and overseas liquidity shock.
Looking forward to the future market, A-share may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but in the medium term, domestic policies are active, which is expected to drive the domestic economy to recover moderately and support the fundamentals of A-share.
Adjustment of A-share due to multiple factors
On April 16, 2024, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 1.65% and the GEM Index fell 1.97%.
It is worth noting that micro cap stocks have become the worst hit areas, and the Wande micro cap index closed down 10.55% sharply, while the decline of large cap stocks was generally small.
When it comes to the factors of market changes, the Macro Strategy Department of China Southern Fund believes that, first, the strengthening of the US dollar index will disturb the capital going north, affecting the liquidity and sentiment of the stock market.
Second, the new delisting regulations have raised concerns about the pressure on small enterprises to delist, but in fact, from the perspective of the policy itself, the starting point of the policy is to accurately clean up the listed companies with poor performance, which will help improve the overall quality of A-share listed companies; And the new delisting regulations set a transition period, which will not have a substantial impact on the market in the short term.
Third, after entering the financial report disclosure quarter, the operating quality of listed companies has become the focus of the market, which needs to focus more on the subdivisions and targets with high performance fulfillment and continuous exceeding expectations.
According to the analysis of Bosera Fund, the US retail data for March released on Monday local time was higher than the market expectation, which showed that the US economy still had strong resilience. In addition, the US inflation stickiness in March was strong, and the labor market was still hot. The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June was further cooled, and overseas liquidity was tightening.
At present, the sentiment of A-share market is cautious. The economic data for March released today did not exceed the market expectation. With the disturbance of overseas uncertainties, A-share market declined collectively today.
Cinda Australia Asia Fund said that from the perspective of market performance, due to the continued upward trend of US bond interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar index, today's market continued yesterday's adjustment, with a net outflow of more than 5 billion yuan from the northward capital at one time. At the same time, as they expected, the adjustment of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks intensified.
Yongying Fund believes that the market has suffered a large decline today, especially since the State Council issued the new "National Ninth Rule" and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised several existing rules, the market is generally worried about the potential delisting and the subject of ST, and has greatly suppressed the style of micro and small stocks.
A-share may fluctuate in the short term
Yongying Fund said that looking back, the risk probability of sharp callback in the market for a period of time under the support of policy funds is low. In the medium term, with the introduction of internal medium - and long-term favorable policies, economic stability and repair, and the implementation of the external Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction logic, the judgment on A shares remained neutral and optimistic.
Yongying Fund listed the following reasons: First, the release of the new "National Nine Rules", which helps the high-quality development of the capital market in the medium and long term; Second, the economy is expected to recover moderately from a low base in the second quarter; Second, although the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been pushed back again and again, the logic of the denominator will finally be realized.
Bosera Fund said that since April, the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has increased, and the northward capital has also shown a fluctuating trend, which has gradually weakened the driving force for the upward movement of A-shares. In April, A-share listed companies intensively disclosed their performance reports. The focus of the short-term market will return to the performance fundamentals. The performance of listed companies will become an important factor affecting the trend of A-share. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, or it may be appropriate to focus on the opportunities of industry sectors with relatively high performance certainty.
The Macro Strategy Department of China Southern Fund judged that, on the whole, the short-term market has entered a period of shock after a rapid rebound, and investors will pay more attention to the performance disclosure. They need to focus more on the subdivisions and targets with high performance fulfillment and continued to exceed expectations. In addition, they need to pay attention to the possible short-term disturbance to the market caused by the escalation of tension in the Middle East.
In the medium term, the two previous "National Nine Rules" have played a significant role in boosting market performance in the future. The domestic policies are active, which is expected to drive the domestic economy to recover moderately and support the A-share fundamentals.
In terms of market style, the Macro Strategy Department of China Southern Fund is optimistic about the leading performance index represented by CSI A50/CSI 300/market growth. In terms of industry configuration, we can focus on three directions: related fields of "new quality productivity"; The field of trade in of consumer goods and equipment renewal; In the field of going to sea, the corresponding industries are mainly TMT, machinery, medicine, electric equipment, automobiles, household appliances, textiles and clothing, etc.
Cinda Australia Asia Fund maintains its previous view that market differentiation is expected to continue, and high dividend assets with high dividends and stable profits are expected to continue to be popular.
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