PVC market shake reorganizes, and there is no planned overhaul enterprise next week

Source: Pioneer Futures Author: Pioneer Futures

Text of research report

Supply

1. Operation rate: domestic this week PVC The operating load rate of the industry increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC this week was 74.36%, up 3.02 percentage points month on month.

2. Output: 4344300 tons this week, an increase of 176700 tons month on month.

Demand

1. Downstream commencement: Most of the PVC downstream product enterprises started this week with little change, and the overall procurement was relatively low. Most downstream product enterprises started stably, the floor and daily use products started fairly well, and the real estate related products started relatively low. At present, 70% to 80% of calendering film enterprises have started work, and some large factories have started work too high; The starting rate of large factories of flooring enterprises is 7-80%, and that of small factories is slightly lower; Most of the large tube and profile factories are in the range of 40% to 70%, and most of the small factories are in the range of 30% to 40%. According to the survey, most of the major pipe manufacturers plan to have 3-5 days off during the Labor Day, some of which are longer.

2. Export: This week, the export price of domestic calcium carbide PVC continued to decline slightly, and the export order receiving was weak. As of April 25, the export transaction price of calcium carbide method type 5 FOB Tianjin was estimated at 700 dollars/ton, and the price of type 5 calcium carbide materials in Tianjin market was 5495 yuan/ton, equivalent to the cost price of FOB Tianjin of 699 dollars/ton. This week, the theoretical export arbitrage window of calcium carbide method enterprises was slightly open. Although the domestic export quotation is relatively low at present, the export freight has increased recently, and the foreign demand is general, so the overall export order reception is poor this week. The carbide process enterprises receive orders sporadically, and some ethylene process enterprises maintain a certain basic order reception volume.

Inventory

1. This week, the PVC market was in shock and consolidation, the terminal remained in firm demand, the market turnover was poor, and the overall inventory of sample warehouses in East China and South China decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East China and South China was 543300 tons, 0.55% lower than that of the previous period, 30.35% higher than that of the previous period.

Cost

1. Calcium carbide: the price center of calcium carbide market remained stable after moving down. Since last Friday, the calcium carbide market price has been reduced by 50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and has remained stable. As of the closing of April 25, the ex factory price of calcium carbide for trade in Wuhai region was 2550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last Thursday. Due to the increase in the external sales of temporary calcium carbide in Wuhai and its surrounding areas, the inventory of each calcium carbide factory has increased. In order to promote shipment, a new round of price reduction promotion plan was launched last weekend and implemented on Monday. On Tuesday, the ex factory prices and downstream purchase prices in other places have been gradually reduced. At the end of the week, some calcium carbide plants slightly relieved the pressure on shipment, and the price of raw material semicoke rose higher than expected. The market mentality tended to be cautious, and the price remained stable.

2、 caustic soda : This week, the price of caustic soda rose slightly. The weekly average price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton, up 2.43% month on month.

Profit

1. This week, the PVC production enterprises that mined calcium carbide outside reduced their losses. The profit of PVC in Shandong was - 494 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton over the previous period; The profit of PVC in Inner Mongolia was - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton over the previous period.

2. Gross profit of ethylene PVC enterprises importing VCM fell this week. The profit of East China import VCM enterprises was 44 yuan/ton, 102 yuan/ton less than that of the previous period.

3. The ex factory price and delivery price of calcium carbide fell this week, the cost of PVC of single product of calcium carbide method fell, and the cost support further weakened.

Price Difference

1. Main basis: - 378, 63 points lower than the previous period.

2. Price difference between May and September: - 181, down 43 points from the previous period.

[Viewpoint]

1. In terms of supply: there is no planned overhaul enterprise for the next week, and some enterprises under inspection will continue to resume operation. It is expected that the maintenance loss will be reduced next week, and the industry's operating load rate may be slightly increased.

2. In terms of demand: domestic demand is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation before the May Day holiday is not high. Some tubular products enterprises have a May Day holiday of 3-5 days, and some have a slightly longer holiday; In terms of export, although the current export price of domestic manufacturers has certain advantages over that of other sources of goods, the enthusiasm of foreign customers for inquiry is general. In addition to the recent increase in freight costs, it is expected that domestic exports will maintain the basic order volume in the short term, which will be difficult to achieve significant expansion.

3. Inventory: Affected by the decrease in supply, the total social inventory in East/South China continued to be destocked this week, but the change value was small. Affected by the May Day holiday next week, the social inventory or routine increase, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level year-on-year.

4. In terms of cost: calcium carbide price is expected to be stable next week. In addition, the current single PVC product has not yet made up its losses, so although the support for the cost end of the single PVC product has weakened, there is still some support at the bottom. The caustic soda price is expected to fall, and there is still some support for the integration cost.

On the whole, there is no obvious unilateral drive for PVC fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and it is suppressed by high inventory, or it continues to maintain a low shock situation.

Risk

1. Spring inspection and export.

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