Special topic: Zhang Deqin, Chairman of Moutai Group, was recommended as the candidate for Chairman of Guizhou Moutai Group
Source: Beijing Business Daily
At the early stage of the May Day holiday, the market did not wait for the news that the price of Feitian Moutai was rising, but a personnel change information affected the market sentiment. On the evening of April 29, Guizhou Moutai It was announced that according to the relevant documents of the People's Government of Guizhou Province, Ding Xiongjun was recommended not to serve as the chairman and director of the company.
The recommended successor is Zhang Deqin, a veteran of Moutai and former chairman of Xi Jiu. To some extent, it is also a signal of the return of the former Maotai management system. However, Zhang Deqin is not only confronted with the current situation of the unstable stock price of Moutai and the fluctuation of the market price of Moutai liquor, but also the problems of channels and Moutai's international strategy.
Capital price stabilization and product price control
For the new chairman Zhang Deqin, the first thing he faced after taking office was the price problem, that is, the price decline of Feitian Moutai terminal market and the fluctuation of stock prices in the capital market.
Recently, reporters from Beijing Business Daily visited several cigarette hotels in Xicheng, Chaoyang and Dongcheng of Beijing, and found that the transaction price of 53 degree Feitian Moutai bulk bottles in the terminal market is 2700-2800 yuan/bottle. At the tobacco hotel near Anzhen Bridge, Chaoyang District, the clerk told the reporter that there is sufficient supply at present, with 2800 yuan for bulk bottles and 2750 yuan for non invoicing; The price of the original box is 3100 yuan, and the non invoiced price is 3000 yuan. "At present, the transaction price of Feitian Moutai in Beijing market is generally more than 2700 yuan/bottle, which is lower than that of last year, but it rarely falls below 2500 yuan or 2600 yuan." The clerk of the store said frankly.
For Feitian Moutai, 2600 yuan/bottle seems to be the psychological defense line of the terminal market. Both channel and terminal businesses have to raise the spirit of twelve cents below this price to prevent the products recovered at a high price from "losing money and making calls".
Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the beverage industry, told the Beijing Business Daily that the fall in the approval price of Feitian Moutai lies in the fact that the market demand for Feitian Moutai has been affected and the retail price of the market has declined by increasing the investment of non-standard Moutai (100ml and 375ml).
The fluctuation of product price is like a stone thrown into the water, which ripples in the terminal market and even in the capital market. The decline in the terminal transaction price and the rating price of Feitian Moutai not only put pressure on the Guizhou Moutai market and channels, but also gradually put pressure on the capital market.
Since August 2023, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai has fluctuated and declined. In 78 trading days since January 1, Guizhou Moutai hit the lowest price of 1555.55 yuan/share and the highest price of 1749.1 yuan/share on January 18 and March 12, respectively. Among them, the lowest intraday price of 1555.55/share in Guizhou Moutai this year is also the lowest price since December 2022.
Based on this terminal market environment and the current situation of the capital market, the reporter of Beijing Business Daily interviewed the relevant departments in Maotai, Guizhou Province, about whether the company's strategy would be adjusted after the new chairman took office, but no reply was received as of press release.
It is understood that during his tenure in liquor learning, Zhang Deqin made a series of actions on terminal price control in response to the fluctuations in the price of liquor learning market. Looking at the price of terminal liquor products, price inversion and high terminal inventory have long been the problems that perplex liquor. In response, Xi Jiu sent a Letter of Notice to individual dealers, saying that because the dealer's inventory rate was higher than the red line, Xi Jiu suspended the company's product supply in the second quarter.
Shen Meng, director of Xiangsong Capital, pointed out that after the new chairman took office, it was first necessary to stabilize the consumer market and the capital market. Among them, the underlying logic behind the price of Feitian Moutai still needs to be clarified. If it is because of the decline in demand, then the value logic of Moutai may be adjusted. If it is traditional dealers who use this expression to vigorously promote the self owned distribution of Moutai, then it is only a short-term problem.
Channel balancing technique
If the fluctuation of capital market performance and the downward exploration of terminal market price are only questions for Zhang Deqin from the product side, then how to balance the proprietary channel and the traditional channel becomes a problem for Zhang Deqin from the channel side.
According to the 2023 financial report data, Guizhou Moutai Wholesale Agency and direct sales channels respectively achieved operating revenue of 79.986 billion yuan and 67.233 billion yuan, up 7.52% and 36.16% year on year; The gross profit margin was 89.29% and 95.46% respectively, up 0.07% and -0.74% year on year.
According to the division of Guizhou Moutai, direct sales channels include franchised stores and I Moutai; Wholesale agency channels include social dealers, supermarkets, e-commerce, etc. Guizhou Moutai has been looking for a balance point between direct sales channels and wholesale agency channels. At that time, Ding Xiongjun pointed out at the shareholders' meeting that the channel issue should be studied from the perspective of "ecology", and each channel should maintain an optimal balance point to give full play to the value of different channels and maximize the ability of each channel to resist risks and create value.
In fact, it is not easy to find the channel balance point. In 2016, the sales revenue of each channel was disclosed in the financial report for the first time. At that time, the direct sales channel and wholesale agency channel of Guizhou Moutai realized 3.485 billion yuan and 35.356 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the direct sales channel accounts for 8.97% of the total revenue.
In less than ten years, Maotai's direct marketing channel has not only broken the monopoly position of wholesale agency channel, but also directly changed the channel structure of Guizhou Maotai. At the same time, as Guizhou Moutai continues to build its own direct sales channels, the balance that once tended to social dealers is slowly returning.
With the launch of iMoutai App, the revenue of direct sales channels has also been rising. According to the data collected by the reporter of Beijing Business Daily, from 2018 to 2022, the direct sales channel revenue of Guizhou Moutai accounted for 5.94%, 8.49%, 13.93%, 22.63% and 39.79% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, this figure has risen to 42.2%.
Xiao Zhuqing, an alcoholic marketer, said that the traditional distributors of Moutai have made great contributions to the public awareness and psychological price expectations of Moutai. The traditional dealers in Moutai all over the country have highly cohesive and high-quality circle resources and social influence, which have contributed greatly to maintaining the price and market order of Moutai. Now, the proportion of sales performance of the direct marketing system in Guizhou Moutai is close to 50%, and further improving the proportion of direct marketing performance may lead to the traditional channel partners of Moutai slacking off, resisting or carrying high net worth private domain traffic resources to change their business, which will affect the foundation of the channel of Moutai.
In fact, Zhang Deqin seems to have already "previewed" the channel problem. Zhang Deqin launched the "Junpinhui" App in September 2023 when he was in charge of Guizhou wine learning. Different from iMoutai App, in addition to product and cultural and creative sales, Junpinhui App also sells local featured products in Guizhou.
While promoting e-commerce channels, Zhang Deqin also frequently threw olive branches to dealers. At the 2024 national dealer conference of Guizhou Xijiu, Zhang Deqin once called the dealers the benefactor of Xijiu, and issued a "10-year agreement" to the dealers.
In this regard, Shen Meng pointed out that the proportion of Guizhou Moutai's own channels increased rapidly, but the role of traditional dealers should not be underestimated. If the current consumption situation is weak, overemphasizing their own channels may lead to more opposition with traditional dealers, which will not help the stability of Moutai itself.
Where to go for internationalization
2024 is the key year for the internationalization of Moutai. Further strengthening the efforts to build an international market and accelerating the pace of international market construction are the top priorities of Moutai's market work in 2024.
According to the financial report data, in 2023, Guizhou Moutai will achieve an operating revenue of 4.35 billion yuan in the international market, up 2.61% year on year, accounting for 2.95% of the total revenue, with a gross margin of 92.18%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the gross margin in the domestic market. By the end of 2023, the number of dealers in the foreign market of Guizhou Moutai has reached 106, with a net increase of 1.
According to the Beijing Business Daily reporter, up to now, the international market of Moutai has covered 64 countries and regions around the world. There are 106 international channels, 44 franchised stores and 3 Moutai cultural experience halls. At the same time, Guizhou Moutai plans to not only achieve a significant increase in overseas market revenue by 2027, but also expand the scope of overseas markets and layout more countries and regions.
However, it is not easy for both Guizhou Moutai and the whole liquor circuit to enter the overseas liquor market and gain a place. Ouyang Qianli pointed out that the internationalization of Chinese liquor is a long process and also faces many challenges, but "although the road is far away, it will come, although things are difficult to do, they will be successful". In the future, liquor enterprises should not only embrace the habits of overseas audiences, but also keep their own characteristics. In addition, it is necessary to maximize the "spokesperson effect", broaden the popularity and influence of products, strengthen cooperation with local businessmen or enterprises, and forge strong alliances to strategically expand overseas markets.
In this regard, Xiao Zhuqing pointed out that on the one hand, the just launched internationalization of Moutai needs to expand the influence of the international capital market and attract international capital investors to hold Moutai in Guizhou for a long time; on the other hand, it needs to make Moutai's influence and consumption coverage break through the Chinese circle, and how to make the mainstream of the mainstream of the world's developed economies fall in love with Moutai, It will test the wisdom of the new decision-making layer of Moutai Group.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Yibo Feng Ruonan
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