The statistical data on the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2019 released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the month on month increase in the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in the first, second and third tier cities has fallen. In October, according to preliminary estimates, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities rose 0.1% month on month, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, Beijing and Guangzhou decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively; Shanghai and Shenzhen both rose 0.4%, 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing rose 0.1% month on month, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou decreased by 0.6%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively; Shenzhen rose 1.0%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 31 second tier cities rose 0.5% and 0.1% month on month respectively, with the growth rate falling 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 35 third tier cities rose by 0.6% and 0.5% month on month, respectively, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month.

【 In 2019, the state-owned legislative plan did not mention property tax Think again 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

What is the most sensitive issue in the property market? It's not a purchase restriction, because it hasn't changed much for a while, nor is it a loan restriction, because it's useless to relax. People are most concerned about the property tax. When will the property tax be levied? Are there any exemption items? What is the exemption range? The key is, will the real estate tax be levied? Although there was a clear answer to this question at the two sessions in March, many experts believe that the property tax is inappropriate and has no possibility of introduction.

Some time ago, the Ministry of Finance issued a document on the relevant legislative work. Everyone saw that the lack of property tax content caused a sensation. Later, it was explained in many ways before it subsided.

The Office of the State Council recently issued a notice on the 2019 legislative work plan, many of which are directly related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, causing widespread concern in the society. This time, It is no accident that the absence of the real estate tax law in the 2019 legislative plan immediately aroused people's attention. As for the work related to the property tax law, in fact, there has been an early safety

【 Leading the rise after being named by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development What's the policy of Xi'an 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

After Xiaoyangchun in March this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development named and criticized more than 20 cities, including those with rapidly rising house prices and those with rapidly rising land prices. The house price in Xi'an rose by 24.4% year on year. As the leader of the country in nearly a year, it naturally became the number one on the spending list of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development.

Of course, it was a private roll call. People may not have seen the report, but who can hide this matter? In the last year, the exposure rate of Xi'an is too high, and you can see it clearly. Since this year, a new feature of property market regulation has emerged, that is, when problems arise, we should urgently fill the gap and introduce new policies in time. In view of the regulation policy of "taking measures according to the city", the policies issued by different places are also different. It is said that nearly 200 regulation measures have been issued by all cities in China by April.

On April 23, Xi'an issued the Notice on Launching the First Level Response to the Prevention and Control of Capital Liquidity Risk, tightening the local housing provident fund policy, which will be officially implemented on May 13 this year. The Notice pointed out that

【 There are still 4500 yuan houses in the suburbs of Beijing Listen to what the local people say 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

Seeing this topic, many people may not believe it, and some people will say that it is deceptive. How can there be more than 4000 yuan houses in Beijing? Is the small property right not so low? Yes, the houses with small property rights in the outer suburbs are more than 10000 yuan, and the houses in the most remote counties are more than 30000 yuan. However, there are thousands of yuan worth of affordable houses in these suburban districts and counties.

The year before last, a friend was assigned a house like this. I was a little disbelieving at that time, because the affordable houses in several new cities in Beijing all cost more than 20000 yuan. However, after people queued up and passed the examination, they bought such a house. If you don't believe it, what should I do?

Today, I was talking about a friend whose village planning was adjusted and the whole village was to be relocated. It seems to mean that villages should be removed and towns merged, because the nature of relocation is to transform shantytowns, and there is no talk about building railways or development zones. The friend's yard is 260 square meters, and 1.8 million yuan was compensated. This also subverts

【 The current policy trend is downward The possibility of housing price rebound is zero 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

After watching an episode of "Malang Pai", Ma confidently said that three years ago, I said that the house price in the second half of 2017 was the highest. At that time, I told everyone that the house could be sold in the second half of 2017, which was the highest point of the house price, and I would regret it if I waited. Looking back, the housing prices in major cities were the highest at that time.

The boss surrenders himself to the largest real estate enterprise in Hebei and pushes down another domino in the property market

(By Ma Yuecheng)

Zhuoda is not the first developer who has bankrupted a real estate enterprise due to the break of the capital chain. A few days ago, another developer in Fujian announced that it had applied for bankruptcy due to the break of the capital chain. Who says buying a house must make money? The reality is always more colorful and cruel than imagination. In the real estate industry, there are not many people who don't know about Zhuoda. First, Zhuoda is the largest real estate enterprise in Hebei. The project is flourishing not only in Hebei, but also in Beijing, Shandong, Tianjin and other places. Second, Zhuoda also launched many new development concepts in the early years, such as the concept of super large project development to build a characteristic town, which also started from Zhuoda. Third, Zhuoda had a high-profile boss named Yang Zhuoshu. Chairman Yang started from Hebei Daily in his early years, so he was very clear about publicity.

However, on the one hand, Zhuoda has developed rapidly, on the other hand, its reputation has been poor. The main reason is that there is a big gap between Zhuoda's propaganda and the actual situation. This is not the main reason, because the high pitch can not be used as food. The main problem is that Zhuoda's financial situation has always made people uneasy

【 The back of the seemingly hot property market It is a hidden worry that house prices may plummet 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the housing market in April and the first four months, whether housing prices or transaction volume, is generally rising. Therefore, people generally believe that the housing market has warmed up, and others believe that the housing market regulation cycle has begun to enter the rising channel. Is that true? In fact, not necessarily, the main reason is that the policy does not allow, China's property market is a policy city, of course, the policy is not omnipotent. However, whether the policy can be effective depends on whether it can be sustained.

Since the beginning of this year, after the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development put forward the idea of "stabilizing house prices, land prices and expectations", the real estate market has become much more stable. First of all, several small cities sensitively foresaw that developers would cut prices and acted decisively. In their eyes, the regulation was to "resolutely curb the decline of housing prices". Their basis was a policy of "stabilizing the real estate market and preventing the sharp rise and fall of housing prices".

However, the measures taken by the upper level are more sensitive to the recovery of the property market. In March, housing prices in some second tier cities rose and land prices rose, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development was tight

【 Institutional adjustment of housing starts It's finally on the right track 】

(By Ma Yuecheng)

China's housing system reform has gone through 20 years of twists and turns. Why did it need to be reformed at the beginning? The main problem is that there is no way to solve the people's living difficulties. They all rely on the power of the government. At that time, the per capita living area was only a few square meters. Brothers and sisters lived in upper and lower bunks, and a large family lived in a tube building. Therefore, the reform is to change the government led housing rationing system into a market-oriented monetization system.

Monetization of housing distribution, in fact, is to let everyone go to the market to buy their own houses. But for ordinary workers, their wages are still very low. What should we do? As a result, there are a variety of welfare housing purchase policies to ensure that low-income groups can purchase housing conditionally. The first was affordable housing. The price gap between the first affordable housing and commercial housing was not very large. However, due to the low income at that time, the price of housing was not very high, about 2000 yuan for large buildings. If the price gap was several hundred yuan, it would not be a fraction.

At that time, the affordable housing was applied for by individuals, and only one piece was needed

The asset liability ratio of a large number of real estate enterprises is close to 90%. How to support the market becomes a problem

(By Ma Yuecheng)

One of the reference data for people to judge whether the property market is good or bad is that the developer's financing ability, if the developer's financing ability is strong, the land market will be more popular. On the contrary, if the developer enters into debt repayment, the developer's ability to take land will be reduced, and the property market will enter a downturn. If the property market is depressed, the price of the whole market will be threatened. The decline of house prices means that the assets of real estate enterprises will shrink.

The developers' assets shrink, which means that the developers' assets are not hard currency, but variable. To be more frank, many of the developers' assets are bubbles. However, the developer's debt is a real loan, which cannot be underestimated. Therefore, when the developer's debt remains unchanged, the developer's debt ratio will rise in a straight line as long as the property market bubbles.

In order to prevent this from happening, developers always seek financing channels. In this regard, the government is also actively cooperating. In fact, the goal of stabilizing housing prices is also something that many people do not understand

【 1、 Second tier property market starts to recover? Truth or illusion? 】

Spring is a charming season, and it is also a season of cold and warm uncertainty. The spring breeze kisses my face, warm and cold. The boys and girls who saw the short sleeved dresses on the street yesterday, and the people who are wrapped in coats and scarves today are walking around.

The same is true of the real estate market. The situation across the country is very strange. Under the same blue sky, the difference between cold and warm is too great. The house price in some third and fourth tier cities has been rising again. Recently, the house price in Hegang boycotted the price of buying a new house for 10000 yuan, which smashed people's eyes. They all said that they did not expect this situation. Just now, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March.

The month on month increase in the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in the first and second tier cities declined slightly, but that in the third tier cities increased. On the whole, the price of new commercial residential buildings in 65 cities rose month on month in March, with Dandong leading the way with 1.9%. It is worth noting that after 9 months, Dandong once again led the country.

The sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities rose and fell with each other