【 The back of the seemingly hot property market It is a hidden worry that house prices may plummet 】
(By Ma Yuecheng)
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the housing market in April and the first four months, whether housing prices or transaction volume, is generally rising. Therefore, people generally believe that the housing market has warmed up, and others believe that the housing market regulation cycle has begun to enter the rising channel. Is that true? In fact, not necessarily, the main reason is that the policy does not allow, China's property market is a policy city, of course, the policy is not omnipotent. However, whether the policy can be effective depends on whether it can be sustained.
Since the beginning of this year, after the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development put forward the idea of "stabilizing house prices, land prices and expectations", the real estate market has become much more stable. First of all, several small cities sensitively foresaw that developers would cut prices and acted decisively. In their eyes, the regulation was to "resolutely curb the decline of housing prices". Their basis was a policy of "stabilizing the real estate market and preventing the sharp rise and fall of housing prices".
However, the measures taken by the upper level are more sensitive to the recovery of the property market. In March, housing prices in some second tier cities rose and land prices rose. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development of the People's Republic of China (MOHURD) urgently criticized these cities. As a result, many cities have also urgently introduced further control measures. For example, Xi'an has taken measures to restrict housing purchase by provident fund in other places. Of course, the impact of this measure on the property market is almost zero. However, it is also a sworn attitude.
In fact, this year's property market has inherited the general trend of differentiation of last year. The difference is that this year's differentiation tends to decline. This trend is mainly reflected in the fact that housing prices in some key cities and hot cities are beginning to match those in Beijing and other cities. On the other hand, the third, fourth and fifth tier cities with relatively large growth rates last year are not strong enough to rise, and many cities have begun to turn around and decline.
Data shows that real estate investment from January to April increased by 11.9% year on year, 0.1 percentage point faster than last month. Some people believe that this is a sign that the property market is warming up. It should be said that this understanding is also correct. The overall scale of the property market has expanded, and the recovery is also correct. However, as far as the investment growth is concerned, there is no question whether it is a recovery or not, because the annual real estate investment is in the process of growth, which is the same as GDP. If there is no growth, it means that the economy is in trouble.
Some front-line experts said that, from the perspective of the overall fundamentals of the property market, under the general environment of "no speculation in housing", there is no possibility that housing prices will continue to rise. Relatively speaking, this year's housing prices may maintain a small shock within a relatively reasonable range. In April, the transaction area of the first tier cities decreased by 16% month on month and increased by 39% year on year; Among the four first tier cities, only Beijing's trading area increased month on month, while the other three cities' trading area decreased to varying degrees. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, second-hand house prices in the first, second and third tier cities rose 0.3%, 1.2% and 0.5% month on month in March, respectively, 0.2, 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
As an important factor in macroeconomic development, the real estate growth rate is relatively stable at present. The National Bureau of Statistics explained that, on the one hand, the new construction area has maintained a steady and rapid growth, and on the other hand, the future expectation of housing prices is relatively stable, which support the current steady trend of real estate investment. Real estate investment represents the supply of the real estate market, so it is very meaningful for the future regulation of the property market. Conversely, if the real estate investment drops, it means that the supply of the property market is insufficient, which will inevitably bring danger to the house price.
The overall performance of the real estate market this year is basically the implementation of the general principle of "one policy for each city, one policy for each city" proposed by the central government. Centering on the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations", it should be said that the real estate market is moving towards a stable and healthy development path.
According to the analysis of data reported by the media, since March this year, housing prices in hot cities, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, have shown signs of slight increase, which seems to show that housing prices continue to rise. However, we should also see that the turnover of second-hand houses and new houses, represented by popular cities such as Beijing, Xiamen, Hefei and Nanjing, both declined year on year and month on month.
The real estate market in some regions has recovered and risen due to the "Little Yangchun". However, the government immediately launched the interview mechanism, which has also made the vast number of buyers less confident about their future expectations, and has also made many potential demand turn to wait and see. The confidence in predicting future growth is not enough. According to statistics, since April, various regions, including ministries and commissions, have taken more than 60 regulatory measures against real estate, up 300% month on month, and the frequency of regulation has increased significantly.
Public data shows that throughout April, many cities including Hefei, Zunyi, Shenzhen and other land markets and real estate markets that have basically shown signs of recovery or even overheating have issued tightening control policies, including refuting rumors about the real estate market, issuing tightening control on the real estate market for the obvious signs of "recovery" Policies such as co ownership housing clarify the implementation details and the tightening policy of provident fund.
In April, the market differentiation continued to be obvious, with the price of second-hand housing falling in 12 cities, including Guangzhou, Jinan, Chengdu, Wuhan, Qingdao and other cities. More importantly, since October last year, second-hand house prices in more than 10 cities have declined month on month for seven consecutive months. This is the "back side" of the hot property market, which makes people sigh and expect more from you. [This article was released by the "Ma Yuecheng" account 20190518]
