Original title: The bank shares are all in the red. When will the bank go out of the full break?
Many stock prices continued to hit new highs.
On April 17, amid the "boom" in the A-share market, the banking sector strengthened all over the board at the end of the day. All 42 listed banks were in the red, and the stock prices of many banks continued to hit new highs, CITIC Bank The trading limit is closed in the afternoon. The last time the bank stock limit rose was in February, and LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market) was significantly lowered the next day, Ping An Bank In the big financial sector continued to strengthen the trading limit.
As of the closing of the 17th day, China Securities Bank Index It closed up 1.78%, up 3.69% in three trading days since this week, nearly 2 percentage points higher than the market. In terms of individual stocks, except CITIC Bank, which led the rise with 9.98%, Bank of Ningbo Up 4.58%, Bank of Xi'an , Ping An Bank Lanzhou Bank 、 Qingnong Commercial Bank The increase was also more than 3%, and 19 shares rose more than 2% in total on the same day. The first stocks that rose were stock banks and urban agricultural commercial banks.
Thanks to the strong performance since last year, Bank of China 、 agricultural bank On Wednesday, the share price continued to hit a new historical high, and the share prices of several other major state-owned banks also continued to hit new periodic highs. Among joint-stock banks, CITIC Bank China Merchants Bank It also reached a new high in recent months.
Just last Friday (April 12), the four major banks of industry, agriculture, China and construction disclosed the increase in holdings of Central Huijin since last October. In total, they increased their holdings of nearly 1.1 billion shares in the four major banks in half a year. During this period, the four major banks achieved double-digit increases in stock prices, with a total increase of more than 650 billion yuan in market value, including an increase of more than 520 billion yuan in the total market value of A-shares. On the whole, as of last Friday, the total market value of the six major banks had increased by about 666.7 billion yuan compared with six months ago, of which the total market value of A-shares had increased by about 527.3 billion yuan.
Since last year, bank shares have become an important support in the market's risk aversion. Among them, the shares of Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, which have hit new highs, have risen 63.18% and 56.49% respectively Bank of Communications Followed by 54.36% and 52.33% respectively.
Looking back from the periodic bottoming of the China Securities Bank Index on December 11 last year, CITIC Bank continued to lead the rise, up nearly 37% so far, Bank of Nanjing 、 Bank of Chengdu The increase was also close to 30%, followed by Bank of Beijing 、 Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Agricultural Bank of China Bank of Jiangsu , China Merchants Bank Changsha Bank 、 Bank of Hangzhou And the growth rate was more than 20%.
However, from the perspective of the price to book ratio, the overall situation of the industry has not changed. As of the latest closing date, China Merchants Bank's PB (P/B ratio) has rebounded to more than 0.9 times, and more than 0.8 times of P/B ratio has rebounded to 4 stocks, but there are still Huaxia Bank 、 Bank of Guiyang 、 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 、 Minsheng Bank PB is below 0.4 times.
In the view of many institutional personages, undervaluation, high dividends, etc. are important factors for funds to be optimistic about bank stocks. Especially in the environment of declining interest rates and strong risk aversion, the defensive characteristics of the banking sector are obvious. Under the requirements of the new "National Ninth Article", some institutions believe that the high dividend advantage of bank shares may be more favored.
Judging from the dividend plan disclosed in last year's annual report, the banking sector, especially the big state-owned banks, is still the most generous (see the report "Last year's big dividend of 550 billion, can the high dividend rate of bank shares be sustained?"). In addition, from the perspective of dividend yield, according to the data of Huachuang Securities, although the overall PB of the banking sector has risen to 0.48 times from the previous low point, it is still at a low quantile level of 8.22% in history. The dividend yield is still 5.24%, and the dividend yield of most individual stocks is more than 5%, which has long-term allocation value.
"Bank positions are still at a low level, and dividends and provisions provide a safety pad for bank stock investment." From the perspective of the analysis team of Huachuang Securities Bank, after 1-2 years of adjustment, the current valuation of various types of banks within the banking sector has fallen to historical lows, with limited space for further decline. In the short term, large state-owned banks with sound fundamentals and high-quality regional city commercial banks with high dividends are still attractive to capital. In the long term, the business model of various banks will be tested.
From the disclosed performance in 2023, the overall asset quality of the banking industry continues to improve. However, due to the narrowing of interest margin, lower than expected middle income and other factors, the profit pressure is still not small, and the provision feedback effect is still in place. At the same time, risks in real estate, local urban investment and other fields are still the main concern.
As the stock price of bank stocks rose against the trend, the divergence on whether the high dividend market could be sustained intensified. gf securities Ni Jun, a banking analyst, believes that under the pressure of interest margin and asset quality, the banking industry is reducing its demand for scale and seeking high-quality development. Investors can appropriately reduce their absolute income expectations and look at banking stock investment from a longer-term perspective.
"Recently, due to the fluctuation adjustment in the market due to the data release, bank stocks have run out of relative returns, but high dividends have become increasingly weak. It is expected that the best investment stage of absolute returns of banks in the year has passed, and the future will enter a flat period. It is recommended that investors reduce the absolute return forecast and view bank stock investment from the perspective of position allocation." Ni Jun said in the research paper.
At the 2023 performance conference, senior executives of several major banks and joint-stock banks mentioned their demands for scale reduction in the future. Ni Jun believed that this meant that the low price and low efficiency of credit supply would be reduced, supply and demand would remain relatively balanced, and the downward speed of the weighted interest rate of the industry's overall loans would slow down.
In addition, the amount of low price credit transmitted to the liability side of small and medium-sized banks through large enterprises with high credit will be reduced, which means that the amount of small and medium-sized banks obtaining cheap debt will be squeezed, the difficulty of obtaining general deposits of small and medium-sized banks will increase, and the difficulty of balancing assets and liabilities of small and medium-sized banks pursuing excessive scale growth will also increase, Unless small and medium-sized banks also follow the trend to reduce the expansion speed of risk assets. "The high-quality development of banks also means that the speed of credit expansion that has broken away from the growth rate of capital retention in the past few years will return to the reasonable hub."
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Editor in charge: Li Linlin
