Special topic: favorable policies and economic recovery form a resonance market, which is expected to open the second wave of upward trend
In the early morning of the 19th Beijing time, the US stock market closed up and down at different levels on Thursday, and the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq closed down for the fifth consecutive trading day. The data on initial claims for unemployment benefits last week shows that the labor market is still tense. The governor of the New York Federal Reserve said that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates or even raise them JPMorgan Chase The president predicted that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates at all this year.
The Dow rose 24.90 points, or 0.06%, to 37778.21; The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 81.87 points, or 0.52%, to 15601.50; The S&P 500 index fell 11.00 points, or 0.22%, to 5011.21.
The prospect of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the focus of the market.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Williams John Williams said on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to lower interest rates, and economic data will determine the timing. He said interest rates could even be raised this year.
Williams said: "The monetary policy is in a good position. The current interest rate level is gradually pushing us to achieve our goals. So I don't think there is any urgency to cut interest rates at all. I think the monetary policy is playing exactly the role we want to see."
A key inflation indicator in the United States in March exceeded economists' expectations for three consecutive months, raising concerns that progress in cooling inflation has stalled.
The implied expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates fell further this week, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that policymakers would wait longer than previously expected. Powell pointed out that there was insufficient progress in inflation, and said that if the price pressure continued, the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates stable "for a long time".
Just last month, investors also bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times. In the forecast released after the Federal Reserve's meeting in March, policymakers made roughly the same forecast.
Williams also said that the interest rate increase is not his basic expectation, but if the economic data supports this approach to achieve the Fed's inflation target, Then it is possible to raise interest rates 。
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he was willing to keep interest rates stable and cut interest rates should wait until the end of the year. He said that he still believed that the inflation rate was moving towards the central bank's target of 2%, but it might be slower than people's expectations. Bostic previously said that it is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.
Bostick said: "Inflation is high, too high. We need to make it reach the 2% target. I am willing to be patient.". Bostik has the right to vote on monetary policy this year, and he said he will continue to pay attention to employment growth Long and Inflation adjusted wage increases.
After the new round of inflation led to the soaring of treasury bond yield to the peak in 2024, traders generally bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year from September.
Daniel Pinto, President of JPMorgan Chase, said that in view of the high inflation level, The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates at all this year 。 He said at an event in Washington: "The Federal Reserve may have to wait a longer time to cut interest rates, but the possibility of raising interest rates is very, very low.". He believes that the Federal Reserve will not act in a hurry now, because cutting interest rates too soon will bring painful results and may lead to economic recession.
Recent economic data show that inflation in the United States is still higher than many people expected earlier this year, making it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates quickly.
Pinto's view is consistent with that of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who wrote in a letter to shareholders earlier this month that stubborn inflation pressure may lead to higher interest rates than market expectations. JPMorgan Chase is ready for interest rates of 2% - 8% or even higher.
Investors continue to focus on the just started US stock earnings season.
Equifax, a credit bureau, saw its share price fall sharply because of the disappointing guidance for the second fiscal quarter. House builder D R. Horton announced better than expected results.
So far, more than 11% of companies in the S&P 500 index have announced their financial reports, which are generally positive. According to the data of FactSet, more than 72% of the S&P 500 companies that have published financial reports have exceeded Wall Street's expectations.
Recently, the US stock market experienced a correction, continuing the difficult start of the second quarter. So far in April, the trend of the three major stock indexes of the US stock market has remained sluggish, in sharp contrast to the stronger than expected market performance in the first quarter. at present Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ The indexes have closed below their 50 day moving average.
Jason Hunter, director of technical strategy of JPMorgan Chase, said: "The initial support level of the S&P index is 5000 points, or a little lower. The question now is: will the rebound begin to brew from there? If so, will it be able to return to above the breakdown level - the 50 day moving average, that is, the area where it jumps?"
Jason Hunter said that he was paying attention to the key resistance level between 5150 and 5200 of the S&P 500 index.
Chris Vermeulen, chief investment officer of Technical Traders, warned that the US stock market has been in a long-term bull market, but there are signs that it will eventually lose momentum, and then inevitably usher in a bear market and a difficult "reset".
He predicted that the US stock market may enter another bear market similar to the Internet bubble and the financial crisis in 2008, which may eventually bring painful stock losses to investors. People's wealth will shrink by 30% - 50% at most in the next year.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist of Evercore ISI, said that after falling back from the historical high of last month, the stock market is witnessing the beginning of a decline that will last until the rest of 2024.
Emanuel reiterated the target of the S&P 500 index falling to 4750 points by the end of the year, which means that the S&P 500 index will fall 6% from the closing price of 5022 points on Wednesday.
On the economic data side on Thursday, the US Labor Department reported that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time had stabilized at 212000 as of the week of April 13, indicating that enterprises were still unwilling to lay off workers.
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week was slightly lower than the 215000 estimated by Dow Jones, reflecting that although the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 23 years, the labor market was still tense.
The number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 6 increased by 2000 to 1.81 million, in line with the estimate of FactSet.
The index measuring manufacturing activity in Philadelphia unexpectedly increased sharply in April, largely due to the soaring inflation index.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index rose to 15.5 in April, up more than 12 points from March, better than the 2.5 expected by Dow Jones. The index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion and contraction, so any indicator above zero is positive.
Most of the increase came from three categories: payment price, which soared nearly 20 points to 23 points; New orders increased by nearly 7 points to 12.2; Shipments increased by nearly 8 points to 19.1.
The employment index dropped slightly to - 10.7, and the average weekly working hours dropped sharply to - 18.7, down 18.5 points.
Focus stocks
Evercore ISI released a report this week that although Nvidia's share price has soared by more than 200% in the past year, it still has great potential for growth. The bank rated Nvidia's stock as "outperforming the market", with a target price of $1160, a potential upside of 36% compared with the current level.
Evercore believes that under the bull market scenario, Nvidia's share price may soar to $1540 next year, up 81% from the current level; The reason for setting such a high target price is that Nvidia is not only a chip company, although most investors still think so.
In an email sent to employees on the 17th local time, Musk admitted that the severance pay for some laid-off employees was "too low" and said that it would correct this error.
as report goes, Tesla CEO Musk said in a short email sent to employees on Wednesday (April 17, 2024), "In the process of restructuring Tesla, I noticed that some severance payments were wrongly lowered", "I apologize for this mistake. It is being corrected immediately."
According to the report, it is unclear how many laid-off employees have been affected.
On the 15th local time, the news that "Tesla, the largest electric vehicle company in the United States, will start layoffs" caused a sensation in the public opinion of the United States. It is reported that the company will cut more than 10% of its employees this time, which means 14000 people will lose their jobs. The media have stressed that the latest layoff scale is "the largest in the history" of the company.
On the day when the layoff news was released, Tesla's share price fell by more than 5% and its market value evaporated by more than 30 billion dollars. The market generally believes that the main reason for Tesla's layoff is the slowdown or even decline of its sales volume. Media comments said that Tesla's sales decline reflected the sluggish demand of the overall American electric vehicle market.
According to the document disclosed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 17, AMD Papermaster Mark D, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President of the Company, sold 16200 ordinary shares at an average price of $164.25 per share on April 15, with a value of about $2.6609 million.
In addition, Su Zifeng, Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of AMD, held the 10th session on April 18 association "Lenovo is an important partner of Ryzen Al. We are working closely to develop hardware and software to bring the best AI PC to the market," said Tech World at the Innovation and Technology Conference
according to Apple A statement issued by the company on Wednesday (April 17) said that the company planned to invest more than 250 million dollars to expand its park and business in Hongmaoqiao, Singapore.
More than half of this week, after Apple CEO Tim Cook ended his visit to Vietnam and Indonesia, media sources said that Cook would then go to Singapore. At this time, Apple's official website issued a statement saying that it would expand the scale of its parks in Singapore and expand its business. The US technology giant pointed out in the statement that this expansion will provide space for the growth and new roles of artificial intelligence (AI) and other key functional areas.
TSMC The consolidated revenue in the first fiscal quarter was 132.455 billion yuan, up 16.5% year on year and down 5.3% month on month; Net profit was 50.397 billion yuan, up 8.9% year on year and 5.5% month on month. The operating profit in the first fiscal quarter was 55.656 billion yuan, up 7.7% year on year, with an estimated 53.834 billion yuan; The gross profit rate in the first quarter was 53.1%, estimated to be 53%.
stay Google The company fired 28 employees after protests over its cloud contract with the Israeli government. This decision was made after nine employees were initially suspended and then arrested. The employees were fired after participating in sit ins at Google's offices in New York and California. In a memo sent to all employees, Chris Rackow, Google's global security director, said that such behavior would not be tolerated or tolerated in the workplace. He also warned that the company would take further action if necessary.
Alcoa's revenue in the first fiscal quarter exceeded expectations, and its annual guidance was relatively positive.
Meguiar It is expected to obtain more than 6 billion dollars of chip bill funding.
TSMC's revenue and net profit in the first fiscal quarter exceeded expectations.
UBS It said that Ctrip's performance in the first fiscal quarter may grow steadily by 29%.
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