Suddenly, 80000 people burst their positions! Female stock god, "rollover"

　　 In recent days, Bitcoin has lost several passes!

　　 In the early morning of this morning, the price of Bitcoin even fell by more than 5% and fell below the $60000 mark, a new low in more than a month. By the time of press release, the price of Bitcoin had risen a lot, and now reported $62000, the decline narrowed to 0.3%. The sharp fluctuation of prices made the virtual money market cry again. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 80000 people broke positions, with the amount reaching 247 million dollars, equivalent to about 1.8 billion yuan.

　　 It is worth noting that in the near future, the share prices of Tesla, an electric vehicle giant, and Coinbase, a well-known cryptocurrency trading platform, have been falling as fast as those of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin. In the past four trading days (from last Friday to this Wednesday), Tesla and Coinbase have fallen by 11% and 19% in total - these two companies are respectively the first and second heavy position stocks of Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) under Kathy Wood, the "female stock god" of Wall Street. Therefore, ARKK was also dragged down, falling 13.5% in four days.

Since the beginning of the year (as of April 17), although Coinbase has risen by nearly 23%, Tesla has dropped by more than 37%. Affected by this, ARKK has also fallen by nearly 18%. Although Tesla's share price kept falling, Kathy Wood continued to increase his position on bargain hunting. In the public, there are more doubts about Kathy Wood, and a lot of funds have flowed out of Kathy Wood's funds. Since this year, more than $1.8 billion (about 13 billion yuan) has flowed out of Kathy Wood's flagship fund.

On the evening of April 18, Beijing time, after the opening of the U.S. stock market, Tesla's share price continued to fall. As of the press release, the company fell 3.22% to $150.45, with its total market value shrinking to $479.2 billion. Since last Friday, in five trading days, Tesla's market value has evaporated by 76.8 billion dollars, equivalent to about 556 billion yuan.

More than 80000 people burst positions

　　 In recent days, affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and other factors, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fall, falling behind the threshold of $65000, $64000, $63000 and $61000. In the early morning of April 18, Bitcoin once fell below the $60000 threshold, reaching a minimum of $59800.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped by more than 5% at its highest, Doggie Coin dropped by nearly 9%, and Solana dropped by more than 5%. Subsequently, the price of the virtual currency mentioned above rose again, and the current decline has narrowed a lot.

However, the violent fluctuation of the price makes the virtual money market a river of blood. At present, 81893 people have burst their positions, with the amount reaching 247 million dollars.

　　 Recently, Bitcoin has staged "ups and downs" for many times. On March 14, the price of Bitcoin once soared above $73000, hitting a record high for four consecutive days, then fell sharply below $61000 in a few days, and rose again above $70000 at the end of March. Since April, the price of Bitcoin has still fluctuated significantly. On April 12 and 13, the price of Bitcoin plunged again, from $71000 to $61000. In two days, the whole network broke positions of $1.83 billion, with hundreds of thousands of people breaking positions.

For a long time, the event of halving Bitcoin has been touted as one of the core factors to stimulate the significant upward trend of this cryptocurrency. However, due to the sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East, some investors tend to avoid risks, and cryptocurrencies have experienced a sharp decline. Investors began to worry about whether Bitcoin's previously record high price had absorbed the positive impact of halving against the backdrop of the expected ebb of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the rising risk aversion caused by geopolitical factors. Therefore, the risks in the cryptocurrency market declined sharply.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, a crypto analysis institution, said that risky assets represented by stocks and cryptocurrencies were on the verge of substantial price adjustment. The main incentive is unexpected and sustained inflation. At present, the bond market is expected to cut interest rates less than three times, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will exceed 4.5%. The market may have reached the critical point of risk assets. Therefore, 10X Research has cleared all positions.

　　 This Friday, Bitcoin may be halved for the fourth time since its birth 15 years ago. The so-called "halving" is to halve the rewards that miners get from mining. Whenever the Bitcoin blockchain generates 210000 blocks, the Bitcoin blockchain rewards will be halved. At present, the winning miners in the mining competition will receive 6.25 Bitcoin rewards, which will be reduced to 3.125 after halving.

Some analysts pointed out that the cryptocurrency market often undergoes a round of adjustment before bitcoin is halved, and a large number of bitcoins will be transferred to exchanges for profit taking, which will also lead to a gradual decline in the price of bitcoin. After the "halving" event is completed, the mining power of Bitcoin will be weakened, which will promote the price of Bitcoin to rise. Some market participants said that as the high leverage factor of cryptocurrency was washed away in the recent collapse, the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, driven by the spot ETF of Bitcoin, were still bullish.

However, JPMorgan doesn't think so. The well-known investment bank said that prices are more likely to fall after the "halving" event. JPMorgan Chase said that the price of Bitcoin may weaken after the upcoming "halving" event. Half reduction is expected to occur between April 19 and 20. JPMorgan Chase's analysis shows that after halving, the price of Bitcoin may fall because the market is still overbought. The bank also pointed out that the current price of cryptocurrency is about $61200, which is still higher than the bank's estimate of $45000 for Bitcoin, which is the price compared with gold after volatility adjustment. After halving, the estimated production cost of Bitcoin is $42000. It should be noted that the production cost of Bitcoin has always been considered as the lower limit of the price of Bitcoin. JPMorgan also pointed out that despite the recent recovery of the encryption market, venture capital financing is still sluggish.

"Female stock god" fell off the altar?

　　 On Wednesday local time, Tesla and Coinbase fell 1.06% and 2.31% respectively. In the past four trading days, Tesla and Coinbase fell by 11% and 19% in total. Tesla and Coinbase are the first and second heavy position stocks of Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) under Kathy Wood, the "female stock god". As of April 17, the market value of ARKK's positions in Tesla and Coinbase were US $645 million (about 4.6 billion yuan) and US $570 million (about 4.1 billion yuan), respectively, accounting for 9.94% and 8.79% of their positions. ARKK also fell 13.5% in the past four trading days (from last Friday to this Wednesday). It is understood that the total size of various funds under Kathy Wood exceeded 50 billion dollars at the peak, and the current size has shrunk significantly, estimated to be about 20 billion dollars.

At present, Coinbase is the second largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the world. Coinbase, founded in 2012, is a global digital currency trading platform. Its main businesses include digital currency exchanges, digital currency wallets and e-commerce. In 2021, Coinbase will land on NASDAQ, becoming the world's first listed digital currency exchange. In 2023, the stock price of Coinbase will increase by nearly 400%; During the period from January 1 to March 25, 2024, Coinbase's share price rose by more than 60%, and its market value was once close to $68 billion. Recently, with the decline of the price of Bitcoin, Coinbase's share price has also continued to adjust.

Since this year, Tesla's share price has continued to decline, with a decline of more than 37% so far. As a result of this drag, ARKK has also fallen by nearly 18% year to date, and its market value has fallen below $500 billion. Due to the expected slowdown in the demand for electric vehicles, many institutions recently lowered the target price of Tesla. Among them, Deutsche Bank lowered the rating of Tesla from buy to hold, and the target price was lowered from $189 to $123. Barclays cut Tesla's target share price by 20% from $225 to $180. Barclays believes that Tesla's upcoming first quarter results will be a negative catalyst for the stock.

　　 Although Tesla fell all the way, Kathy Wood was still adding to his position. Cathy Wood's Ark Investment bought more than $10 million worth of Tesla shares on Wednesday after buying $3.25 million worth of Tesla shares on Tuesday.

Kathy Wood recently said in an interview with the media that because Tesla robot The project is dominant, and she is still firmly optimistic about the long-term prospects of this electric vehicle manufacturer. She said, "Tesla is carrying out the world's largest artificial intelligence project through autonomous driving, which has more real driving data than other companies. We believe that before 2030, the entire ecosystem of autonomous taxis will generate 8 trillion to 10 trillion dollars of revenue, and platform suppliers like Tesla will get half of the revenue."

Kathy Wood also mentioned Tesla's potential in humanoid robots. She pointed out that Tesla will become one of the leaders in the field of humanoid robots with Optimus. Many jobs in automobile factories need to carry out quite precise operations on bolts and nuts. At present, robots cannot do this. But when humanoid robots are ready, they will help automobile factories expand their scale at a faster speed.

　　 Kathy Wood was once known as the "female Buffett". In 2020, Kathy Wood became the number one fund manager on Wall Street through her heavy position in Tesla. In that year, five of the seven ETFs under Ark Investment (founded by Kathy Wood) had an average return of 141%, and three of the five ETFs had the best performance among all funds in the United States, which made ARKK Fund famous. During the peak period, the asset scale of Ark Investment Management exceeded 60 billion US dollars.

In 2021 and 2022, with the selling tide of technology stocks brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, the former "female stock god" also suffered huge losses for two consecutive years. During the period, Ark Investment's flagship fund ARKK fell 23% and 67% respectively. In 2023, with the rebound of technology stocks, ARKK recorded a 68% performance return.

Since 2024, ARKK has dropped 17.85%, and its total capital outflow has exceeded 1.8 billion dollars. Morningstar strategist Robby Greengold pointed out earlier this month that the theme of ARKK's investment - artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, gene technology, energy storage and robots - is "eye-catching", but the strategist questioned Fang Zhou's ability to find winners and losers in these fields.

　　 Most of the funds in the Ark Fund series managed by Kathy Wood are biased towards industries that make investors willing to pay higher valuations in anticipation of explosive growth in the future. However, this strategy is under pressure at present, because in the environment of high interest rates, those companies with high valuation that fail to achieve profitability are losing their attractiveness.

With more and more funds flowing out of ARKK, many market participants have begun to question whether the "online celebrity" fund manager who missed the great rise of Nvidia during the year but bought more and more from Tesla can afford the reputation of "female stock god"?

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