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On April 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Relevant leaders of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange responded to the hot issues highly concerned by the market.
// Talking about the future: There is still room for monetary policy //
Zhu Hexin, Vice President of the Central Bank and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that, on the whole, a series of monetary policy measures introduced earlier are gradually playing a role, and the national economy has continued to recover with a good start. There is still room for monetary policy in the future. We will closely observe the policy effect, economic recovery and the achievement of goals, and make good use of reserve tools at the right time.
// On exchange rate: Firmly prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot //
The exchange rates of Asian countries have fluctuated greatly in recent days Zhu Hexin introduced the performance of RMB exchange rate in the short term, The economy got off to a good start in the first quarter , marginal improvement in multiple fields, The increase of positive factors will help hedge external disturbance factors and support the RMB exchange rate; More supporting factors in the medium and long term 。 China's economy will enter a stage of high-quality development, and the balance of payments will be self balanced. The depth and breadth of the foreign exchange market will be further expanded, and the risk neutral awareness of market participants will be significantly enhanced.
Zhu Hexin said that the People's Bank of China and the Administration of Foreign Exchange will focus on China, give consideration to internal and external balance, adhere to the regulated and managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, and refer to a basket of currencies. They will not only focus on the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates, but also continue to implement comprehensive policies, stabilize expectations, and pay close attention to changes in the foreign exchange market situation, We will resolutely correct procyclical behavior, prevent the market from forming unilateral expectations and self strengthening, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
// On foreign capital: Overall balance of cross-border capital flow //
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said:
Since this year, the operation of the foreign exchange market has shown strong resilience, cross-border capital flows have been generally balanced, and market expectations and transactions have remained rational and orderly.
In the first quarter, the foreign income of bank agents was 1658.6 billion US dollars, the foreign payment was 1655.5 billion US dollars, and the foreign payment surplus was 3.1 billion US dollars; From the data of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, bank foreign exchange settlement is 542.2 billion dollars, foreign exchange sales is 567 billion dollars, and foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit is 24.8 billion dollars.
In recent years, the scale of overseas institutions' investment in domestic bonds has rebounded significantly, with a net increase of 23 billion US dollars last year Net increase in holdings in the first quarter has reached 41.6 billion US dollars 。
// On price: It is expected to recover at a low level //
Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that the People's Bank of China has taken maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate recovery of prices as an important consideration to grasp monetary policy, and has paid close attention to the characteristics and trends of inflation indicators. On the one hand, China's economy continues to improve, the total demand is expanding, and the price recovery has a foundation and conditions; On the other hand, some agriculture products When the price reaches the inflection point of adjustment, the travel will be more active, and these factors will help the price to recover. In general, Prices are expected to rise from a low level and real interest rates will change accordingly.
// On interest rate: Prevent the interest rate from being too low, leading to intensified internal competition //
Zou Lan also said that in the future, the People's Bank of China will continue to closely observe the situation of economic recovery and economic transformation. We should not only maintain the nominal interest rate at a reasonable level to consolidate the trend of economic recovery, but also fully consider the need for high-quality development to avoid cutting the momentum of structural adjustment, To prevent too low interest rates from leading to intensified internal competition and capital idling, which will further reduce prices ， They form bad circulation with each other.
// On M2 balance exceeding 300 trillion yuan: Strengthen fund idle monitoring //
Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said that the M2 balance of broad money at the end of March exceeded 300 trillion yuan
This is a reflection of the continuous financial support for the development of the real economy over the past years. In general, The current stock of money is indeed not low.
At present, China's economic restructuring is accelerating, the economy is more light, credit demand is weaker than before, and the credit structure is optimized and upgraded. However, all parties have a process of understanding and adapting to the change. Some banks still have "scale plot" in their internal assessment, which exceeds the effective financing needs of the real economy; Some enterprises rely on their advantageous position, Using low-cost loans to finance financing to buy wealth management or lend to other enterprises, the main business does not make money but finance becomes the main business, which is easy to form idling and capital precipitation, reducing the efficiency of capital use 。
Relevant departments will Strengthen the monitoring of fund idling and improve the management assessment mechanism 。 In the future, with the economic transformation and upgrading, the demand for effective financing will recover, social expectations will improve, and the phenomenon of idle capital precipitation will also be alleviated. At present, the growth of the huge amount of money may slow down, and there will be disturbances in the data, so it is not appropriate to make a simple comparison over the same period.
(Wind Comprehensive China Securities, Securities Times, etc.)
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