Futures Daily
Yesterday, domestic crude oil The main futures contract 2406 (SC2406) closed sharply down 3.15%. The previous day, New York crude oil futures fell 3.13%, the largest decline in three months, erasing all gains in the month. During the night trading period, the crude oil futures continued to decline. As of the closing, the sulfur was low fuel oil (LU), fuel oil fell nearly 1%.
On the news side, data from Vortexa, a data company, showed that Iran sold 1.56 million barrels of oil every day in the first three months of this year, the highest level since the third quarter of 2018.
It is reported that the United States and the European Union are preparing to impose new sanctions on Iran, partly to dissuade Israel from escalating its conflict with Iran through retaliatory attacks. US Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged this week that Iran "obviously" continued to export oil and that "more work needs to be done" to curb such trade.
Armen Azizian, senior analyst of Vortexa, said that the United States recently began to target individual tankers suspected of carrying Iranian crude oil. In February, it imposed sanctions on two tankers, and in April, it imposed sanctions on 13 tankers. However, he said that so far, the impact on Iran's oil exports was "negligible". In the past year, Iran's fleet for transporting oil has increased by one fifth to 253 ships, and the number of supertankers carrying 2 million barrels of oil has doubled since 2021.
Iran's oil minister said last month that the country's oil exports "created more than 35 billion dollars" last year. On another occasion, he said that although Iran's enemies wanted to prevent its exports, today Iran can export oil to any place it wants at a very low price.
Since this year, domestic crude oil futures prices have risen by 16.97% this year. Yang Jiaming, an analyst of CITIC Futures, told the reporter of Futures Daily that the oil price continued to rise, mainly due to the larger than expected macro demand and supply side data. On the macro side, China US PMI returned to the expansion range in March, boosting crude oil demand expectations. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia raised the official oil price discount in early April, Mexico National Petroleum Corporation planned to cut crude oil exports by at least 330000 barrels per day in May, and the IEA monthly report in April estimated that Russia's crude oil processing capacity of about 500000 to 600000 barrels per day in this quarter may be in a shutdown state, On April 14, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel, which caused the market to worry about the interruption of crude oil supply caused by the direct conflict between Iran and Israel. The geographical premium of crude oil continued to rise, and the market was optimistic.
"Recently, under the influence of geopolitics, Brent's price once exceeded the threshold of $90/barrel. Looking at the price difference, we can see that the current diesel cracking is weak and the monthly difference has weakened slightly. We believe that the geo premium of crude oil has been overestimated, the fundamental margin has weakened, and there is a demand for the oil price to be adjusted to squeeze out the geo premium. In terms of geography, although the current geopolitical crisis still exists and has no sign of ending, from the perspective of the current international situation, as long as it does not affect the Strait of Hormuz, and does not materially affect Iran's docks, refineries, and pipelines, the geopolitical risk will not have a real impact on crude oil supply in a short time. Recently, the crude oil market still revolves around the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran. After Iran's large-scale attack on Israel, western powers have condemned Iran's attack, and called on Israel and Iran to exercise restraint and avoid any action that would escalate the situation. It is reported that the United States has considered accepting Israel's attack on Rafah in exchange for not carrying out a large-scale military counterattack against Iran. In the short term, there is a possibility of gradual easing of the geopolitical situation. " He Han, a researcher of Hengli Futures on crude oil and refined oil, said.
Looking at the fundamentals, according to Yang Jiaming, In terms of supply, the EIA monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in March increased by 0.18 million barrels per day month on month, and the production reduction agreement did not bring about a month on month decline in output. At the same time, the monthly drilling report released by the EIA on April 15 predicted that the crude oil production of the seven major shale oil producing regions in the United States in May would reach 9.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 16500 barrels per day month on month, an increase of 408000 barrels per day year on year, Reverse the expectation that shale oil production will continue to decline month on month and the year-on-year growth rate will fall back. In terms of geography, Iran said that it had no plans to carry out military operations at present, and a spokesman of the US Department of Defense said that the United States did not seek conflict with Iran. Israel's goal is to strike Iran without triggering a full-scale war. Israel hopes to coordinate actions with the United States against Iran. The geopolitical situation is still unclear, but on the premise that there is no large-scale Israeli attack on Iran, the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices may be temporarily limited, and the market is also waiting for the next Israeli action. In the macro aspect, In March, the annual rate of CPI in the United States hit a new half year high of 3.5%. The CPI data led to the postponement of interest rate cut for at least one month. The postponement of interest rate cut is expected to drive the yield of US bonds, the strength of the US dollar and the fall of US stocks, putting pressure on commodity prices.
Looking ahead, Yang Jiaming said that, After the geopolitical situation pushed up the oil price, the inflation pressure led to the postponement of interest rate reduction expectations. If the geopolitical situation does not further escalate, the supply will gradually return or a high probability event will gradually reflect the pressure on the oil price. American Manufacturing P Under the background of delayed interest rate cuts and tighter financial liquidity, the downward pressure on MI has increased. Although short-term macro and supply side support for oil prices will still exist, the accumulation pressure has gradually increased. In particular, the IEA monthly report shows that the global offshore oil inventory continues to accumulate to a high level. It is necessary to pay close attention to the next dollar trend and the progress of the geopolitical situation. In the near future, the exchange rate of the dollar and the yen has continued to rise. It is also necessary to pay attention to the statement of the Bank of Japan on the exchange rate and the Federal Reserve on the expectation of interest rate reduction. Once the dollar continues to rise, downward pressure on crude oil prices will increase.
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