Dai Huanhuan of Soochow Securities
Before the expiration of SAIC CWB1 at the end of the year, the positive share price is more likely to move above the exercise price. Investors can pay close attention to the positive shares and the band trading opportunities brought by the rise of the positive shares of SAIC CWB1.
Due to the poor performance of A-share market, the stock market maintained a narrow range of volatility yesterday. Due to the expiration of Shengao CWB1 and the continued suspension of Guodian CWB1, only 8 warrants are currently traded in the warrant market. Jiangxi Copper CWB1 ended up at 0.89%, ranking first among the gainers, under the influence of the strong rise in futures prices. In addition, SAIC CWB1 benefited from the concept of Expo and the improvement of auto consumption, up 0.27%. But Baosteel CWB1 rose slightly due to the victory of Baosteel's anti-dumping case. The other five warrants were all green, and the biggest decline was petrochemical CWB1, down 1.72%. Yesterday, a total of 14.76 billion yuan was transacted in the warrant market, a sharp drop of 10% compared with the previous trading day, showing a slight downturn.
As of last Friday, the average premium rate of the warrant market has dropped from 169.6% at the beginning of the year to 56.36% at present. The valuation level of the warrant market has further moved down, and the risk has been released to some extent. At present, Jiangxi Copper CWB1 is still at a discount, and the safety margin is prominent. and Baosteel CWB1 The premium rate of Jiangxi Guangdong CWB1 and Petrochemical CWB1 is still over 80%, and the value is significantly overestimated. From the inside and outside price level, only Gezhou CWB1 and Jiangxi Copper CWB1 are in the price warrants (that is, the exercise price is less than the current stock price, with exercise value). However, Baosteel CWB1 and Sinopec CWB1 are still out of the deep price. In the future, if the positive shares do not perform well, the warrants will have no value.
The scarcity of warrants will inevitably lead to the continuous pursuit of funds, and the warrant market has never lacked opportunities to benefit. With the continuous downward movement of the premium rate of warrants, the investment value of some warrants began to emerge gradually. In the medium and long term, we should still choose the varieties with good performance and relatively low valuation level of warrants for investment. It is suggested to gradually build warehouse Jiangtong CWB1 and Changhong CWB1 。 In the short term, we can focus on the positive equity investment opportunities and the band trading opportunities of warrants brought by the willingness to exercise, and it is recommended to pay attention to SAIC CWB1 。 In addition, Gezhou CWB1, ZTE ZXC1 and Baosteel CWB1 also deserve investors' short-term attention.
The last trading day of SAIC CWB1 is December 30, and there is 18.65% room between the current positive share price and the exercise price of 26.91 yuan. The Company has a strong desire to exercise. Before the expiration of warrants at the end of the year, the positive share price is very likely to move above the exercise price. SAIC Motor The performance growth in the third quarter of this year is outstanding. In addition, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones is expected to be deepened in the near future. Investors can pay close attention to the short-term trading opportunities brought by the willingness to exercise rights in the regular stocks, and grasp the band opportunities generated by the rise of the regular stocks in SAIC CWB1.
The last trading day of Gezhou CWB1 was December 31. Recently, Gezhou CWB1 was in the status of shrinking platform consolidation, showing signs of upward breakthrough. As of yesterday's closing, the premium rate of the warrant was only 28.36%, slightly higher than that of Jiangxi Copper CWB1, and it was still an in price warrant. As the last trading day at the end of the year approached, the in price end warrant could not avoid being hyped by funds.
At present, the premium rate of Jiangxi Copper CWB1 is -9.16%, and the margin of safety is relatively high. Investors can conduct medium - and long-term configuration, as well as band operation. Recently, the copper price continues to rise, which brings some trading opportunities to Jiangxi Copper CWB1. In terms of short-term performance, Jiangxi Copper CWB1 has a high correlation with the price trend of copper futures. At present, the focus of the copper market is on the optimistic prospect of economic recovery and worries about future inflation. Although the current copper supply and demand is relatively loose, which leads to a weak willingness of spot prices to follow the rise, this does not hinder the pace of copper market growth. Investors can actively seize the trading opportunities of Jiangxi Copper CWB1, which has the highest actual leverage among all warrants, which will share more opportunities brought by the rise of positive shares.
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