Every reporter Mao Jinnan
WISCO with an exercise value of up to 7 billion yuan
CWB1 (580013, closing price: 0.004 yuan), plummeted all the way before the exercise, and finally ended the transaction of nearly two years at the price of 0.004 yuan. And the positive shares Wuhan Iron & Steel (600005, closing price: 7.3 yuan) In the early stage, the market rumors stimulated the soaring, but in recent trading days, it suddenly plummeted.
Yesterday was the first exercise day of WISCO CWB1. Due to the suspension of WISCO CWB1, the regular shares of WISCO became the focus of the market. The trend of WISCO shares is very strange. Against the background of a 64.35 point sharp rise in the market and a new closing high in this round of rebound, WISCO shares fell against the trend, with a decline of 1.22%, ranking first in the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Is it possible for WISCO CWB1 to exercise its rights? If not, WISCO is willing to see the huge capital of 7 billion yuan vanish? If the exercise is not possible, why did the closing price on the last trading day not return to zero, but 0.004 yuan?
Although WISCO CWB1 has stopped trading, its journey of life is not over. All speculation surrounding the exercise of power may be lifted next week.
[Mystery 1]
Who will take the responsibility behind the scenes if the warrant does not return to zero
This Thursday is the last trading day of WISCO CWB1. As the doomsday round, the warrant is almost a piece of waste paper, but the closing price of WISCO CWB1, which plummeted all the way throughout the day, did not return to zero. The closing price was 0.004 yuan, three times higher than 0.001 yuan!
From the following buying volume, at the last second of the trading day, the total number of buying orders at the lower three prices reached 7426422 million, which has exceeded the whole plate of WISCO CWB1. Among them, at the price of 0.001 yuan, there are as many as 654220.7 million huge purchases, which can buy about 90% of all chips of WISCO CWB1.
What's more surprising is that, as a huge warrant with a circulation of 727.5 million shares, the sales orders were not very large at the last time of the transaction. At the closing, only 15349.63 million shares of total sales orders were hung on the plate. This also means that about 600 million warrant holders do not seem to intend to sell warrants on the last trading day. The only reasonable explanation is that most of the chips of WISCO CWB1 have been locked.
Several other signs seem to indicate that the chips of WISCO CWB1 have been locked in advance.
On the same day, the lowest price of WISCO CWB1 was only 0.002 yuan, and did not reach the zero price of 0.001 yuan. It should be said that as a large market warrant with more than 700 million shares in circulation, it did not return to zero on the last trading day, and the lowest price of the whole day did not touch the zero price, which means that on the way of the sharp decline, there was funds to actively bargain for most of the chips. In addition, on the last trading day, the total market value of WISCO CWB1 was only 2.91 million yuan based on the closing price of 0.004 yuan, which also means that the price paid for undertaking WISCO CWB1 funds has dropped significantly compared with the previous trading days.
So, who will take advantage of the chaos in the crash? Is it fund or hot money? What is their purpose?
[Mystery 2]
The sudden defection of the fund was premeditated or the alliance collapsed
"I heard the news that WISCO CWB1 was going to exercise its rights in mid March," a private equity fund official told reporters. At that time, the share price of WISCO was over 6 yuan. He heard from the fund that the fund has already negotiated with the listed company to cooperate with the expiration exercise of WISCO CWB1, and the fund will work together to increase the price of WISCO shares to above the exercise price of 9.58 yuan.
From the middle of March, a big play called the joint director of funds and listed companies by the market began to be staged. Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., the protagonist of the drama, rose all the way. By the beginning of April, the stock price had risen to 8.76 yuan at the highest level. In just half a month, the stock price had risen by 50% at the highest level.
However, just one step away from the exercise price of 9.58 yuan, when the exercise seems to be free of suspense, there are sudden changes. On April 7, the fund suddenly backhand short, and WISCO shares began to plummet. On the same day, WISCO fell 8.23%. A large number of 419923200 shares were traded in a single day, and the turnover rate exceeded 10%.
The public information of the day showed that the institutional seats of the Fund were being short wantonly. A news came from within the fund that a large fund company significantly reduced its position on the same day, but the reason for the reduction was not clear.
Under the sharp reduction of fund holdings, the market's shareholding confidence collapsed. On April 8, WISCO shares fell further. On the same day, the stock fell by a wide margin of 8.59%, reaching 435.0369 million shares, and 13.88% changed hands in a single day.
For two consecutive days, WISCO shares fell sharply, and the distance between WISCO shares and the exercise price of warrants was getting farther and farther. As of this Friday, WISCO shares closed at 7.3 yuan, 30% away from the exercise price.
"If it were not for the sudden reversal of the fund, maybe the result would be completely different." Mr. Zhao, who suffered heavy losses on the CWB1 of WISCO, was ready to cry. He believed in the rumor of exercise and lost 200000 yuan on CWB1 of WISCO.
Why did the fund suddenly reverse? The fund is indeed the culprit of the sharp fall of WISCO shares this week! But it is impossible to get the answer from open channels.
It is said that some funds withdrew ahead of schedule due to their negative outlook on the future market, which led to the internal disintegration of the multi fund alliance and the continuous profit taking of funds, which ultimately led to the avalanche of WISCO shares this week.
Another theory is that the fund actually set up a plan in advance, and after the sharp rise, the stock price is close to the exercise price. At this time, the news that WISCO CWB1 must exercise is released through various channels, so as to make a profit at a high level and escape.
Whether the selling of funds was premeditated or the collapse of the long trade alliance is still unknown. However, with the market hitting a new closing high since its rebound on Friday, institutions have regained confidence in the future market. Will funds and other institutions backhand long trade next week?
These answers will be announced next week.
[Mystery 3]
Whether Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. needs 7 billion yuan of exercise value
The time for exercising power is passing by minute by minute. This Friday, the first exercise date of WISCO CWB1 has passed, and there are still four exercise days left for the holders of WISCO CWB1.
Whether the right can be exercised has only two results. The stock price of regular shares of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. rises sharply, and when it approaches and breaks through the exercise price, it comes back from the dead; If there is no significant improvement in the regular shares of WISCO warrants, the warrant holders will fall into the abyss completely. However, the most important thing is the listed company of WISCO.
Compared with WISCO CWB1, the market value is less than 3 million yuan. If all the 727.5 million warrants are exercised, WISCO will get about 7 billion yuan in cash. Under the global financial crisis, it is believed that the senior management of WISCO has a clear understanding of what 7 billion yuan of cash means for a periodically listed company.
Judging from the current situation, the opportunity for WISCO to exercise its rights seems slim. As of the close of this Friday, the regular shares of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. had closed at 7.3 yuan, 9.58 yuan away from the exercise price, and it needs to rise 31.23% to make the warrants valuable. There are only four trading days left for the exercise period, which means that in the first four trading days next week, WISCO shares need to rise by about 7% every day.
For WISCO, a large cap stock, it is very difficult.
At the beginning, it was reported in the market that Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. would launch two major advantages: first, in the annual report to be disclosed, it would launch a high stock dividend plan of 12 shares for every 10 shares to help the fund drive up the share price; Second, WISCO Group will increase its shareholding in the secondary market. According to the announcement on September 11, 2008, WISCO Group plans to increase its shareholding in the company from the secondary market by no more than 2% of the issued shares in the next 12 months. At that time, it had already increased its shareholding by 1.64 million shares.
Judging from the current situation, whether the news of high stock dividend is true or not, it has little impact on short-term stock prices. According to the scheduled disclosure time of annual report of WISCO, it will be announced on April 27, half a month later.
"Far water can't save near fire. Unless WISCO discloses its annual report in advance, it may stimulate short-term stock prices," said Wu Han, a senior analyst at Jiangnan Securities.
The increase of WISCO's shareholding will greatly boost the confidence of the market. After all, the major shareholders have promised to increase their holdings. At present, it is a critical stage for the exercise of rights, and the market has become stronger again. The move at this time is likely to significantly increase the share price of WISCO.
There will be four trading days next week, which will determine whether WISCO can obtain 7 billion yuan of cash for warrant exercise and the fate of all warrant holders.
The warrant of 2.91 million yuan disappeared? Or does WISCO wish to get 7 billion yuan in cash? Will miracles happen?
Sina statement: This news is reprinted from Sina's cooperative media. The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, which does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
