Steady Recovery, Resilience, Recovery and Support -- Looking at China's Economic Trend from the Main Indicators of the Previous 8 Months

On September 15, the first eight months of this year, China's economic response was released——

The added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 3.9% year on year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7% year on year, the investment in fixed assets increased by 3.2% year on year, and the retail sales of services increased by 19.4% year on year

Against the background of downward fluctuations in the world economy and a more complex and severe external environment, the major economic indicators in the first eight months have rebounded and improved, and China's economy has shown resilience and vitality in its sustained recovery, boosting high-quality development steadily.

The national economy accelerated its recovery in August

Since the second quarter, the growth rate of some economic indicators in China has fluctuated, and public opinion at home and abroad is full of worries and doubts. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that since August, the marginal improvement of major economic indicators and the cumulative increase of positive factors have confirmed that the national economy has continued to recover in general.

"In August, the national economy accelerated its recovery, production supply increased steadily, market demand gradually improved, employment prices were generally stable, and high-quality development made new progress." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 15th.

Better than July, it is the intuitive impression of China's economic report card in August. For example, from the production supply side, in August, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 4.5% year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that of last month; The service industry production index grew 6.8% year on year, 1.1 percentage points faster than that of last month.

Consumers choose cosmetics at the tax-free store of Haikou Riyue Plaza of China Exemption Group (photographed on January 19). Photographed by Pu Xiaoxu, reporter of Xinhua News Agency

The recovery of the consumer end is more obvious. In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than that of last month; The month on month growth was 0.31%, indicating the steady expansion of domestic demand.

Thanks to the steady employment policy, the current employment situation is generally stable. In August, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The price trend reflects the change of market supply and demand. Data shows that in August, the relationship between market supply and demand was improved, and the national consumer price index (CPI) was 0.1% higher than the previous month, instead of 0.3% lower; The decline of the national producer price index (PPI) narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared with that of the previous month, and the month on month decline turned to an increase of 0.2% from a decrease of 0.2% last month, which became positive for the first time since this year.

The recent performance of goods import and export was also better than expected. In the first eight months, the import and export scale of China's goods was basically the same as that of the same period last year, with a slight decrease of 0.1% year on year, of which the export grew by 0.8%. "Influenced by the downturn in global trade, the rise of protectionism, and the high base of last year, the growth rate of goods import and export has slowed down compared with the same period of last year, but compared with relevant countries, it still shows strong resilience," said Fu Linghui.

Feng Wenmeng, a researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the main economic indicators recovered in August, which showed that short-term fluctuations did not change the long-term trend, China's economy was under pressure and the long-term fundamentals remained stable.

International capital is still optimistic about China's economic prospects

Economic data in August showed that China's economic transformation and upgrading continued, and new momentum was accumulating.

The momentum of innovation continues to grow, and the effect of green transformation appears. In August, the national production of service robots and civil aircraft increased by 73.7% and 33.3% respectively year on year, the production of new energy vehicles and charging piles increased by 13.8% and 17.4% respectively, and the added value of special equipment manufacturing and electronic device manufacturing in the electronic industry increased by 15.7% and 13% respectively.

The foreign trade structure is better. In the first eight months, China exported 8.97 trillion yuan of electromechanical products, up 3.6% year on year, accounting for 58% of the total export value. Among them, the export of automobiles and spare parts, ships and electrical equipment increased by 50.1%, 28% and 18.6% respectively, and the international market share remained stable.

This is the photo of Yantai Port International Container Terminal (UAV) in Shandong Port taken on September 7. Xinhua News Agency (Photographed by Tang Ke)

With the continuous optimization of the economic structure and the increasing agglomeration of endogenous power, the Chinese economy, which is striding forward on the high-quality development channel, is providing new development power for the world with China's big market, and more and better Chinese opportunities for the world with high-quality development.

638 projects have reached cooperation agreements with a total planned investment of 484.57 billion yuan - The 23rd China International Investment and Trade Fair, which ended on September 11, saw the number of participating institutions and the total agreed investment hit a five-year high.

"The Chinese market has an increasingly strong demand for innovative products." Yin Zheng, executive vice president of Schneider Electric, who signed a new contract at the CIFIT, said that the company is deciding to increase capital and expand production, and plans to build a Schneider Electric (Xiamen) Industrial Park project to further strengthen innovative research and development and high-end manufacturing in China.

In Shanghai, it is more than a month before the opening of the sixth China International Expo, and the number of the world's top 500 and industry leading enterprises that signed up to participate in the Expo has exceeded that of last year. Many exhibitors will continue to launch the world premiere. For example, Hikscon will display the latest industrial Internet platform, and SGS will launch three new products, namely, gold label certification, hydrogen label, and online monitoring service for quality, intelligence, Runwei oil.

Under the general downturn of global transnational investment, foreign capital has actively laid out high-end industries and emerging fields in China, and is optimistic about the high-quality development prospects of China's economy.

"China is the 'stabilizer' of the world economy and the 'accelerator' of the global consumer market, and investing in China is investing in the future," said Jean Paul Angong, chairman of L'Oreal Group.

Fu Linghui said that China adheres to mutual benefit and win-win results, actively expands economic and trade exchanges with countries around the world, and promotes high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road". In the first eight months, China's import and export to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.6% year on year, including 9.4% export growth.

"Although the current international economic situation is complex, China has comparative advantages in market potential, manufacturing supporting capacity, digital infrastructure, business environment and other aspects, and China is still a hot spot to attract foreign investment." Chen Wenling, chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said.

Macro policies continue to show significant effects, helping the economy recover

On September 14, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the reserve ratio, which is the second reduction in the year, and is expected to release medium and long-term liquidity of more than 500 billion yuan. This RRR reduction will help to increase the long-term stable capital sources of financial institutions and boost market confidence and expectations.

"China's economy is characterized by strong resilience, great potential and sufficient vitality. The endogenous growth momentum of the economy is gradually increasing. With the gradual effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and measures, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve," said Fu Linghui.

Insufficient aggregate demand is a prominent contradiction facing the current economic operation. Several measures have been introduced to promote consumption in key areas such as household appliances, automobiles and electronic products; Focusing on key areas, improving the security mechanism, creating a good environment, introducing measures to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, and focusing on public promotion of key projects to attract private capital participation... Recently, a series of policy measures targeted at the blocking points, to promote the continuous release of domestic demand potential.

"In the coming period, as China moves into the ranks of high-income countries, the income level of residents will continue to increase, and the huge consumption potential will continue to be released," said Wang Changlin, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

In the face of sluggish global trade growth, China's policy of stabilizing foreign trade continued to strengthen. The Ministry of Commerce will continue to make efforts in facilitating cross-border business personnel exchanges and supporting enterprises to participate in exhibitions and marketing at home and abroad; The General Administration of Customs will further expand the "single window" function of international trade at the national and local levels, establish and improve the regular communication and exchange mechanism with enterprises, and further enhance the drive of foreign trade enterprises.

Foreign trade enterprises take the initiative to expand the development space of foreign trade. Jiang Wei, Deputy General Manager of Beibu Gulf Port Co., Ltd., said that the port cargo throughput is expected to continue to grow steadily by seizing the opportunities such as accelerating the construction of the new land and sea corridor in the west, and continuing to release the policy dividend of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).

Private economy is an important foundation for promoting high-quality development. Recently, the Central Organization Office officially approved the establishment of the Private Economy Development Bureau within the National Development and Reform Commission, as a special working agency to promote the development and growth of the private economy, to promote the early implementation of major measures and see the results.

Since the second half of this year, a series of measures to promote the development and growth of the private economy have been issued intensively, further stimulating the vitality of the private economy. In August, the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises rebounded for three consecutive months, and the confidence in enterprise development accelerated.

Starbucks and McDonald's accelerated the opening of branches in China, Tesla upgraded and expanded the super factory in Shanghai, AstraZeneca signed an investment cooperation agreement with Qingdao High tech Industrial Development Zone, BMW's sixth generation power battery project started in Shenyang, Airbus built a second production line in Tianjin... A series of investment trends in China fully demonstrate the resilience of the Chinese market.

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