Topic: A-share is expected to stabilize and continue to rebound in the second quarter. New quality productivity is the key to maintaining medium and high growth
Global financial media last night and this morning Headlines of common concern mainly include:
1、 Societe Generale estimates that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2024, the euro will fall below $1.05
2、 Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve: Keeping interest rates unchanged helps reduce inflation
3 、 The surge of green power led to the shutdown of European nuclear power plants
4 、 ESG Daily: UBS Group said that according to the Swiss plan, UBS Group would face a loss of 20 billion US dollars
5 、 The latest bet on AI Microsoft turns its eyes to the Middle East
6、 Lagarde: Unless there is a major accident, the interest rate will be cut soon
Societe Generale estimates that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2024, the euro will fall below $1.05
France Industrial Bank Olivier Korber, a strategist, said that the basic prediction made by the researchers of Societe Generale that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates in 2024 might make the euro fall below $1.05.
The unexpected rise of American inflation has prompted our American economists to no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2024, "Korber wrote in a report to clients.
"Although the market has digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start to relax policy later than the European Central Bank, there is still further room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which indicates that there is still room for further decline of the euro/dollar“
Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve: Keeping interest rates unchanged will help reduce inflation
Philip Jefferson, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that while interest rates remained at the current level, it was expected that inflation would continue to slow down, but if inflation pressure continued, it was necessary to maintain interest rates at a high level.
Jefferson said on Tuesday that although considerable progress has been made in reducing inflation, the task of the Federal Reserve to make the inflation rate reach the target of 2% continuously is "not yet completed".
These comments further strengthened the market's view that Fed policymakers are not eager to cut interest rates. Jefferson did not directly mention the timing of interest rate cuts or the prospect of interest rate cuts this year in his speech.
The surge of green power led to the shutdown of European nuclear power plants
Efforts to promote renewable energy have put pressure on the European nuclear energy industry. Although the urgency of producing fossil free power is unprecedented, the surge in renewable energy and the sharp drop in electricity prices are destroying the operating basis of nuclear power plants. Nuclear power is still the cornerstone of part of the European continent's power grid.
There are signs that nuclear power plants will face a difficult period. Since the energy crisis, the demand has not yet fully recovered, and the wind energy and solar energy Power generation has hit new highs, eating into the share of nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants transmitted to the national grid.
ESG Daily: UBS Group said that according to the Swiss plan, UBS Group would face a loss of 20 billion US dollars
According to the reform proposed after the collapse of Credit Suisse, UBS Group is faced with the requirement of increasing regulatory capital, which may reach about $20 billion.
Karin Keller Sutter, the Swiss Finance Minister, aims to enable systemically important banks to provide full capital support for their overseas subsidiaries.
Analysts estimate that for UBS, these changes may lead to capital losses of $15 billion to $25 billion.
A UBS spokesman declined to comment.
The latest bet on AI Microsoft turns its eyes to the Middle East
Microsoft will invest $1.5 billion in Abu Dhabi's artificial intelligence group G42. The two companies will cooperate in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure, which marks the first expansion of Microsoft's artificial intelligence empire to the Middle East.
This may lead to strict review by regulators. G42 and Microsoft said that as part of their partnership, they are committed to complying with US and international trade rules.
Lagarde: Unless there is a major accident, the interest rate will be cut soon
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank would still cut interest rates in the short term, provided that no major accident occurred. She said: "We just need to build more confidence in the process of anti inflation. If it develops as expected, if it does not suffer a major impact in the development, we will move towards a time when we must ease the restrictive monetary policy." "If there is no new impact, it is time to ease the restrictive monetary policy in a reasonable short term."
When asked about the central bank's confidence in the continued decline of inflation after the rise of commodity prices, especially when oil prices soared in geopolitical tensions, Lagarde replied: "All commodity prices have an impact, and we must pay close attention to these changes."
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