DB: It is expected that the US stock market will fall sharply in the next three months _ Sina Finance

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The chief US equity strategist of Deutsche Bank predicted that the US stock market would fall sharply in the next three months as the US macroeconomic growth index reached its peak this summer.

Binky Chadha warned clients in a report released on Monday that he predicted that with the slowdown of economic growth, the stock market would experience "major consolidation", with a decline of 6% to 10%.

His report uses the ISM manufacturing index to measure cyclical macroeconomic growth.

Chadha wrote that the growth of ISM data "usually reaches its peak about one year (10-11 months) after the end of the recession, and we think it will reach this level at present". Historically, "the median sell-off of the S&P 500 index near the growth peak of the data was - 8.4%; even when the ISM data tended to stabilize rather than decline, the median decline of the S&P 500 reached 5.9%."

Under the support of the strongest orders and production data in 17 years, the US manufacturing industry recorded the fastest expansion rate since 1983 in March.

According to the data released by ISM last Thursday, the US corporate activity index rose to 64.7 from 60.8 a month ago. This result exceeded the predictions of all economists surveyed.

The growth rate of service industry activity in the United States in March also hit the highest level since records. The latest data released on Monday showed that the ISM service industry index rose to 63.7 from a nine month low of 55.3, the strongest since records began in 1997.

In addition, according to Goldman Sachs According to SoberLoook, when the US ISM manufacturing index is higher than 60 (for example, at present), the forward return of the S&P 500 index for 3-6 months is negative.