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Reporter Liu Yingjie
Since February, the tire sector has continued to rise. Wind data shows that as of April 18, the Wande Tire and Rubber Index has soared by 33.87%, with 28 of the 45 trading days rising. Within this range, half of the index constituent stocks rose more than 30%.
Industry insiders said that the demand of the tire industry is relatively rigid compared with that of the downstream automobile industry. Thanks to the trade in policy and the steady growth of car ownership, long-term demand is supported. In the context of overseas consumption degradation, terminal consumers have strong demand for Chinese tires with high cost performance ratio, and China's tire advantage is expected to remain.
Raise the tide of price rise
In order to cope with the cost pressure Linglong tire 、 Racing tyre A number of tire enterprises have issued price increase letters. According to incomplete statistics, in March, about 60 enterprises issued price increase notices. Among them, about 50 enterprises have implemented price increases since April 1, covering product series such as passenger car tires (PCR), truck tires (TBR), light tires (LTR) and industrial tires (OTR), forklift tires, and motorcycle tires, with price increases ranging from 2% to 5%.
According to the price increase letter issued by tire enterprises, the continuous rise in the prices of major raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black is the core factor driving the price increase of tire products. According to the data from the business community, the prices of natural rubber and carbon black in the first quarter showed an overall upward trend, with the highest price of natural rubber breaking through 15800 yuan/ton. Since April, the spot price of natural rubber in China has fluctuated widely. As of April 17, the spot price of natural rubber in China was about 13820 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from 13860 yuan/ton on April 1.
Guojin Securities Chen Yi, chief analyst of basic chemical industry, said that with the recovery of demand in the consumer market, the prosperity of the tire industry continues to improve. At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials is relatively low due to factors such as the supply and demand relationship and the low price of bulk materials, which has played a positive role in controlling the cost of raw materials procurement and maintaining stable and good operations for enterprises.
Export growth
In 2023, with the steady recovery of domestic and foreign demand in the tire industry, the destocking of foreign dealers, and the reduction of raw material prices and shipping costs, the tire industry will usher in a better development opportunity.
According to the statistics of China Rubber Industry Association, in 2023, the total output of automobile tires in China will be 786 million, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%. The output of radial tires was 751 million, up 18.3% year on year. The output of all steel tires was 145 million, up 16.9% year on year; The output of semi steel tires was 606 million, up 18.6% year on year.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of this year, the cumulative export volume and export amount of tires maintained a high growth trend, with the cumulative export volume reaching 1.33 million tons, up 9.7% year on year; The export value was about 23.622 billion yuan, up 10.3% year on year.
Everbright Securities (Rights protection) Liu Kai, Chief Analyst of Electronic Communication Industry (Analyst Jin Qilin) According to the analysis, driven by the demand of overseas enterprises for cost reduction and consumption degradation, China's tire export has a prominent cost performance advantage, bringing new export opportunities to China's tires.
Guohai Securities Li Yonglei, chief analyst of chemical industry and new material industry (Analyst Jin Qilin) It is believed that the prosperity of the global chemical industry will bottom out in 2024. Looking at the global chemical industry, the profits of some European enterprises will decline significantly, the domestic backward production capacity will also reach the break even line, and the cycle of the chemical industry has bottomed out. "From the perspective of the global competition pattern, the cost and efficiency advantages of China's competitive enterprises have been very obvious and stable. China's competitive enterprises are still expanding capacity, and their increase in global market share is expected to bring long-term performance upward."
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