Wind Wande
On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that showed that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was better than expected, and many indicators were improving. China's economy continued to rebound.
// First quarter heavy data //
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP of the first quarter was 29629.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year on year and 1.6% month on month compared with the fourth quarter of last year at constant prices.
In the first quarter, the investment in real estate development nationwide was 2208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5% year on year (calculated on a comparable basis); Among them, residential investment was 1658.5 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.1% year on year; In March, the added value of industries above designated size actually increased by 4.5% year on year.
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12032.7 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3902 billion yuan, up 3.1% year on year.
In the first quarter, the whole country Investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) 1004.2 billion yuan, Year on year growth of 4.5% (calculated on a comparable basis), hitting a new high in the last 10 months , the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to February, Increase the growth rate for three consecutive months 。
Guojin Securities Zhao Wei, chief economist, predicted that, Second quarter The growth rate of fixed asset investment will further rise.
// Statistics Bureau: Reasonably view this round of real estate adjustment //
On April 16, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the first quarter of the national economy had started well and positive factors had accumulated, laying a good foundation for achieving the goals and tasks of the whole year. The policy effect continues to show, the production demand is rising steadily, the employment price is generally stable, the market confidence is growing, new achievements have been made in high-quality development, and the national economy continues to recover.
At the same time, he pointed out that the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment had increased, and the foundation for economic stability was not yet solid. In the next stage, we should actively cultivate and develop new quality productivity, increase the implementation of macro policies, effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the recovery trend of the economy, and continue to promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy.
As for the real estate market, Sheng Laiyun said that the sales area of new commercial housing in March this year was 113 million square meters, about 25 million square meters less than that in March last year, and the year-on-year growth slowed down. However, compared with the total sales of real estate in each month since June last year, the total sales of real estate in March this year are higher than the absolute level of each month in the second half of last year. "This means The decline of real estate sales in the first quarter of this year, especially in March, is really due to the high comparison base of the same period last year, and the absolute volume level is not low 。” He said.
"China's real estate market still has the supporting conditions for sustainable and healthy development, so we should take a rational view of this round of real estate adjustment." Sheng Laiyun said that, on the one hand, after 20 years of rapid expansion of the real estate industry, according to the industry growth cycle, the adjustment is normal now. The phased adjustment of real estate is conducive to the subsequent construction of new models and the realization of high-quality development; On the other hand, China's real estate market is supported Because China's urbanization has not been completed. With the improvement of people's living standards and the deepening of urbanization, China's real estate market is still in great demand for improvement and rigidity.
// Interest rate cut or postponed to the third quarter //
According to China Business News, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was better than the market expectation. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, analyzed that this benefited from the deployment of the central economic work conference actively implemented by the local government at the first meeting of the New Year, the policy was advanced, the financial sector increased its support for the real economy, and the issuance of additional treasury bonds last year was used in the first quarter of this year.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that there were three main factors behind the "good start" of the economy in the first quarter:
First, measures such as early RRR reduction and LPR interest rate reduction, as well as the recent policy launch of large-scale equipment renewal and durable consumer goods trade in, have gradually reflected the effect of boosting domestic demand. Among them, the current infrastructure investment has maintained a rapid growth, which is also a concrete manifestation of the power of the policy of stabilizing growth.
Second, with the rapid growth of service consumption and manufacturing investment as the representative, the current endogenous growth momentum of the economy is also improving.
Third, influenced by cyclical factors, overseas demand also picked up overall at the beginning of the year.
Many experts believe that the policy effect in the second quarter will be further revealed.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that the strength or margin of fiscal and financial policies in the second quarter had improved, and the effect of early policies was expected to be concentrated in the peak season of construction The implementation of "ultra long term special national debt" and "three major projects" was accelerated, and the layout of local industrial projects was accelerated to coordinate with a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in, which may Drive the growth rate of fixed asset investment to rise further.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Financial Information Research Institute, said that in view of the current complex and severe external environment and insufficient effective domestic demand, infrastructure investment still needs to maintain a certain intensity. The issuance of trillions of special treasury bonds and the possible future quasi financial instruments can provide additional financial support for infrastructure investment. This year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment can reach about 8%.
Quoted by China Securities Journal Minsheng Bank Wen Bin, the chief economist, pointed out that there is still a foundation for consumption improvement in the next stage. The growth rate of urban and rural residents' income in the first quarter was 6.2%, the highest level since 2022, and also higher than the growth rate of GDP. If residents' propensity to consume continues to increase and income growth continues to improve, it will be conducive to the recovery of consumption growth.
Wen Bin believes that if we want to stabilize the economic recovery trend, we need to maintain counter cyclical adjustment. Looking forward to the next stage, due to the low base in the second quarter of last year, If the policy effect is further manifested, the economic growth rate in the second quarter is expected to rise to more than 5.5%.
Galaxy Securities estimates that, The first quarter regular meeting of the Comprehensive Monetary Policy Committee and other information judgments, It is expected that the next step of the central bank's monetary policy will be neutral and loose. Open market operations will gradually increase the purchase and sale of government bonds. If necessary, the reserve ratio will be lowered to cooperate. The interest rate cut may be postponed to the third quarter.
It is worth noting that recently foreign institutions have raised their forecasts of China's economic growth in the first quarter and even the whole year.
Based on the strong performance of the manufacturing industry, Goldman Sachs macroeconomic team will The forecast of the annual growth rate of China's real GDP in the first quarter was revised up to 7.5% from 5.6% of the previous value Annual GDP growth forecast Upwards from 4.8% of the previous value to 5.0% 。 Citigroup China's GDP this year The growth forecast was raised to 5% from the original 4.6% 。
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