On the last day of November, the retail price of one item was more than 1.3 million yuan (excluding VAT) automobile The news of a 10% excise tax increase caused a stir. The policy was announced on November 30 and implemented the next day. The market was caught off guard by the high efficiency.
Super luxury of more than 1.3 million yuan automobile , almost all from the import market. "Overall, for Imported vehicle Market, especially Luxury car The market must have an impact. " automobile Xiao Zhengsan, Secretary General of the Circulation Association, told the reporter of the Huaxia Times (official account: chinatimes).
The most intuitive reality is that in recent years Imported vehicle The development of the market is not optimistic. After ten consecutive years of growth Imported vehicle The market reached its peak in 2014 and declined for the first time in ten years since 2015. "This year, our country Imported vehicle The market showed a decline in both supply and demand, and there is still a downward trend, and there is no sign of improvement next year. " State owned machinery Automobile market Wang Cun, manager of the marketing department, predicted that.
However, it is gratifying that the overall Imported vehicle Market, import new energy Both cars and parallel imported cars are going higher. Going out of the upward arc in the overall downward market also proves the current market preference and policy direction.
Policy raid
According to the notice issued by the Ministry of Finance on the official website, since December 1, 2016 automobile An additional 10% consumption tax will be levied, and the collection range is 1.3 million yuan (excluding value-added tax) and more per vehicle Vehicle And medium and light commercial Passenger car 。 According to insiders, there were disagreements about whether the threshold was set at 1.2 million yuan or 1.4 million yuan, so the policy has not been implemented, and the final setting of 1.3 million yuan was based on the views of all parties.
In Wang Cun's view, the number of models involved in this tax is not large, but because the adjustment is mainly in the retail sector, consumers will pay for it, so consumers' feelings will be very different.
According to Wang Cun's estimation, the actual retail price of models with a sales price of more than 1.3 million yuan excluding VAT should be about 1.5 million yuan. "Only 1.52 million yuan can be sold to consumers and 10% tax will be paid. This price is all Imported vehicle , mainly including two parts, one is super luxury brand products, such as Rolls-Royce 、 Bentley These cars are more than 2 million yuan, about 6000. The other part is bmw 、 Benz 、 audi High end products. In 2016, it is estimated to be 20000 vehicles, accounting for the whole Imported vehicle 2% of the specific gravity, while Imported vehicle And take up the whole product Vehicle 4% of the market, which is relatively low in general. "
In fact, similar tax adjustments were made once in 2006 and once in 2008. However, the tax revenue at that time was added to the production link, which was more reflected in manufacturer The adjustment of the guiding price, for example, the price of the model is directly raised from 1.5 million yuan to 2 million yuan, so consumers adapt quickly. "This adjustment is to keep the guiding price unchanged. Consumers pay 10% more tax when they consume, which is equivalent to taking money out of consumers' pockets. The consumption experience is very different," Wang said.
"The market share of models with more than 1.3 million yuan is very small, and the 10% tax is added to the high consumption population, which will not have a significant inhibitory effect on the market segment." Lang Xuehong, Deputy Secretary General of the Circulation Association, believes that the current car market is in a rising stage, and there is nearly a month before the end of the preferential purchase tax policy, so we should make adjustments at this time, Good timing will not have a great impact on consumer confidence.
Go down one after another
However, although the news that a 10% tax will be levied on vehicles with a price of more than 1.3 million yuan will not cause too big a disturbance in the market Imported vehicle In terms of the market, it is not good.
According to the data, during 2005-2016, automobile The import volume has rapidly climbed from 161000 vehicles to 1.423 million vehicles, the highest point in 2014, and has fallen back to about one million vehicles. From January to October this year, China automobile The number of imported vehicles was 830000, and the market size declined by 6.5% year on year; Imported vehicle The sales volume was 727000, down 3.9% year on year, in a situation of "supply and demand decline". "The market is still declining, but the decline has narrowed, but it is still difficult to achieve positive growth this year," Wang said.
This is the second consecutive year of decline. In 2015, China automobile The import volume was 1.0673 million, down 25% year on year. and Imported vehicle The market is far from bottoming out. According to the national machinery automobile Forecast, this year Imported vehicle The annual sales volume was 1.1 million, down 3% year on year. In 2017 Imported vehicle The sales volume is 1.09 million, which will continue to decline year-on-year. It also means that, Imported vehicle The market is likely to see sales decline for three consecutive years.
Under the downward market trend, Imported vehicle Although the industry inventory has eased compared with the same period last year, the pressure remains. Data shows that in October this year Imported vehicle The industry inventory is 3.61 months, which has returned to the level of 2012-2013, distributor The inventory is relatively reduced, but the industry inventory pressure still exists. Under inventory pressure, Imported vehicle The preferential range of transaction price at the market terminal is increasing. "The average sales in the industry is 8.7% off, new product Premiums are rare. " Wang Cun said.
and Imported vehicle Subtle changes have also taken place in the vehicle structure. From January to October this year, cars became Imported vehicle The only growth model in the field; SUV It dropped by 13.1%, and its share fell below 60% for the first time. In terms of emission structure, the proportion of emissions below 3.0L has slightly declined, and the greater growth comes from 1.5-2.0L. Its market share has risen from 37.5% last year to 46.9% this year, the largest range for four consecutive years.
Double highlights
However, there is no end to falling Imported vehicle The market is not without bright spots. “ Imported vehicle There are two highlights in the market, the first is import new energy Car, one is parallel Imported vehicle 。” Wang Cun said.
Since this year, we have stimulated parallel imports automobile Development policies have been issued successively, including the Opinions on Supporting the Innovative Development of Pilot Free Trade Zones issued by the Ministry of Commerce automobile Several Opinions on Parallel Import Pilot "; The Notice on Parallel Import in Free Trade Zone issued by CNCA automobile Announcement of Pilot Measures for CCC Certification Reform; Parallel Import issued by China Quality Certification Center (CQC) automobile Certification management requirements (trial) T C1 1-2016-03, etc.
Driven by a series of encouraging policies Imported vehicle On the whole Imported vehicle Under the situation of market decline, it achieved growth, accounting for more than 10% of the import market share. From January to October 2016, the import Automobile market Against the background of a year-on-year decline of 6.5% in the scale, 95397 cars were imported in parallel, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, accounting for 11.5% of the total imports. According to the estimation of Sinoma Automobile, the proportion of parallel imported vehicles in imports in the next 1-2 years Automobile market The specific gravity may reach 15%.
Not only that, as of October Imported vehicle 135 models, including 18 new models in 2016. It is estimated that the parallel import scale will be about 120000 vehicles this year. In addition, at present, there are 19 vehicle import ports in China, which will reach 26 by the end of this year. It is worth mentioning that the country has imported cars to 5 parallel companies enterprise 15 3C certificates were issued, and the certification system will be further improved in the future.
As well as parallel imported cars, imported cars are also eye-catching new energy Automobile. Data shows that from January to October this year new energy The number of cars imported was 10402, compared with 2968 in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of more than 2.5 times, new energy Automobile accounts for 1.3% of the total import volume. Among them, luxury C SUV PH of and D-class cars EV Increase product import to drive PH EV Proportion of imports new energy The share of cars increased to 40%.
Future, subject to Imported vehicle Localization and limited new products, Imported vehicle The supply will still be greatly reduced, and the market size will gradually decline and become stable. Prediction of Sinogy Automobile, 2020 Imported vehicle The market size will be about 900000 vehicles. This also means that in the future, it will meet the consumption upgrading, personalized demand and cultivate imported new energy Automobile market , will become Imported vehicle An important driving force for market supply side reform. (From Huaxia Times/Liu Shanshan)
Editor in charge: Li Xinxin
