Special topic: There is still room for allocation of A-share market going out of Shenzhen V dividend strategy
In the early morning of the 24th Beijing time, the US stock market closed higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1.6%, and the main stock index rose for the second consecutive trading day. This week, the market focused on many financial reports including a number of technology giants and PCE inflation indicators in March. The manufacturing PMI index released on Tuesday was weak, and the market was optimistic that it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more quickly.
The Dow rose 263.71 points, or 0.69%, to 38503.69; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 245.33 points, or 1.59%, to 15696.64; The S&P 500 index rose 59.95 points, or 1.20%, to 5070.55.
On the economic data side on Tuesday, the initial value of the S&P global comprehensive purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed that the U.S. manufacturing activity index fell to 49.9 in March, hitting a four month low. A reading below 50 indicates that economic activity is contracting.
Analysts believe that the slowdown in manufacturing activity will prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts this year, because lower borrowing costs usually stimulate economic growth.
The financial report is the focus of investors this week. About 180 companies in the S&P 500 index will announce their results this week. Their market capitalization accounts for more than 40% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 index.
include Tesla 、 Meta Platforms、 Microsoft and Google Including Alphabet, the parent company of the company, most of the so-called Big Seven will release their financial statements this week. Tesla is scheduled to announce its results after the closing of Tuesday, followed by Meta Platforms. Google's parent company Alphabet and Microsoft released their financial statements on Thursday.
According to industry research data, the profits of the "Big Seven" are expected to grow 38% year on year in the first quarter, dwarfing the expected 2.4% year on year growth of the S&P 500 index as a whole.
cover Goldman Sachs Nvidia, the trading department of the Group called "the most important stock on earth", will not release its financial report until another month. At present, the average market expectation is that its expected net profit growth will drop to 23%.
UBS Monday will Apple 、 Amazon , Google Meta、 Microsoft and Nvidia were downgraded to neutral from overweight. The bank warned that the profit growth momentum of these six technology stocks could "collapse" in the coming quarters.
Citigroup strategists Mihir Tirodkar and Beata Manhey wrote in a report: "We are still focusing on the current financial reporting season, which may make investors focus on solid fundamentals again. We will regard the recent pullback as a buying opportunity."
Express giant UPS reported better than expected quarterly earnings. Pepsi Cola The company reported a better than expected profit. GE GE Aerospace also reported earnings that exceeded expectations.
On Monday, US stocks closed higher, led by technology stocks. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended their sixth consecutive decline. Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager of Wealth Enhancement Group, said: "The short-term rebound of the market is very meaningful here, because we had a hard week and a half before. Now we see some rebound in the field of technology stocks."
JPMorgan Chase Marko Kolanovic, the chief market strategist, said that the decline of the US stock market in the past three weeks was the beginning of the sell-off. With the increase of macroeconomic risks such as the rise of US bond yields, the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of oil prices, the sell-off may intensify.
Scott Rubner, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, warned that the US stock market could fall further. When answering the question whether the recent pullback of US stocks means that the reduction of positions last week is enough, Rubner said, "My answer is no.". He pointed out that Goldman Sachs clients had been reducing their exposure when the stock market rose.
Goldman Sachs' trading department estimates that no matter what the market trend is, CTA will sell stocks in the next week according to the model.
In addition, the demand for institutional put options and hedging exceeded the volatility selling strategy for the first time this year, indicating that large investors are scrambling to prepare for the further decline of the stock market. This is also reflected in the VIX index, which soared to more than 20 points last week and is still far above the average level in 2024.
There are also some important economic data in the second half of this week, including Thursday's GDP data and Friday's March personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE). The US Department of Commerce will release important PCE inflation data on Friday, which is the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve.
The market is still paying close attention to the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year. Traders now expect that the Federal Reserve is most likely to cut interest rates for the first time in September by only 40 basis points, while the expectation at the beginning of the year is to cut interest rates by 150 basis points.
Shane Oliver, chief economist of AMP, said: "The corporate financial reports we will see in the next few weeks are likely to be positive, but obviously there are still problems about what action the Federal Reserve will take next. It is too early to say that the tension in the Middle East has disappeared."
While the US financial market was arguing about the timing of interest rate cut, the founder of the "Black Swan Fund", one of the most pessimistic hedge fund managers on Wall Street and good at profiting from tail risk, warned that investors should make full use of this optimism during the recent period of economic optimism, because turning to interest rate cut would indicate a sharp collapse of the market.
Focus stocks
Tesla is about to release its financial report, and the market expects its operating profit to drop by 40% year on year.
The notice shows that Tesla will lay off more than 3000 employees in California. The company also plans to open a layoff plan in Germany to reduce 400 employees in Germany.
At present, the market forecasts that Tesla's adjusted earnings per share will be 52 dollars and its operating income will be 22.31 billion dollars. This will be Tesla's first revenue decline in four years. In terms of profitability, Tesla is expected to achieve an operating profit of $1.49 billion, down 40% from the same period last year. Based on non GAAP indicators, Wall Street expects adjusted net profit of $1.79 billion and EBITDA of $3.32 billion. According to 20 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha, Wall Street expects that the gross profit rate of cars not included in the policy credit is 15.2%.
Meta Platforms plans to cooperate with Microsoft to jointly release the limited edition Quest header display. According to Meta, the head apparition launched by both parties came from Xbox, but it did not disclose more details about the head apparition.
Meta said that it cooperated with Xbox last year to bring Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta) to Meta Quest head display users, so that users can play Xbox games on the 2D virtual large screen of mixed reality.
Microsoft released a cost-effective small language AI model on Tuesday, which can create social media posts and other tasks while using less data. Microsoft stated that the AI model is called "Phi-3-mini", and its performance in a series of benchmark tests such as evaluating language, coding and mathematical ability can even surpass those AI models whose volume is twice as large.
Eric Boyd, vice president of Microsoft Azure AI platform enterprises, said, The capability of Phi-3-mini is comparable to that of GPT-3.5, but its size is smaller.
Statistics show that the sales of iPhone series of consumer electronics giant Apple fell by 19% in the Chinese market in the first quarter up to March, which is the worst performance of Apple's iPhone in the Chinese market in a single quarter since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic around 2020.
This data shows that Apple continues to hand over its market share in China to its local competitors, and the company is trying to deal with the uncertainty of its flagship products.
It is also reported that, Wedbush said that Apple's upcoming global WWDC in June will be a "critical moment" for the technology giant's AI ambition. It is expected that Apple will realize the historic leap of AI smartphones through the iPhone 16 scheduled to be launched in September this year.
Google said on April 23 that it would invest 600 million euros to build a new data center in Groningen, the Netherlands, to create 125 direct jobs. Since 2014, Google's investment in data centers and related digital infrastructure in the Netherlands has exceeded 3.8 billion euros.
It is also reported that Google fired at least 20 employees who protested that the company provided technology to the Israeli government during the Gaza War on Tuesday, bringing the total number of employees dismissed by the company to more than 50.
This is the latest sign of the internal turmoil of the technology giant. The core of this protest is the "Nimbus Project". In 2021, Google and Amazon jointly signed this project contract worth 1.2 billion dollars to provide cloud computing and artificial intelligence services to the Israeli government.
PepsiCo's sales growth in the first fiscal quarter was better than expected, thanks to the strong demand of its international division, while the sales in North America declined. The company's revenue in the first fiscal quarter was US $18.25 billion, up 2.3% year on year, US $140 million higher than the market expectation.
PepsiCo's organic growth in the first fiscal quarter was 2.7%, which exceeded the analysts' average expectation of 2.3%. The net profit was 2.042 billion US dollars, up by 57% year on year; Diluted earnings per share were $1.48, compared with $1.40 a year earlier.
United Health The group said on Monday that in February this year, the company may have leaked a large number of private information of American customers in a serious network attack, which may constitute one of the largest medical care data leakage incidents in history.
In this attack, United Health Group has paid a ransom, and a company spokesman said in an email that this is one of the measures to protect patient data from further disclosure.
Change Healthcare, a subsidiary of United Health Group, was targeted in this hacker attack. Before the hacker attack, the company handled 2 trillion dollars of health claims every year, involving about 15 billion transactions. The disclosure of this event may lead to greater political pressure, prompting the company to explain the cause of the attack and its countermeasures.
United Parcel Service On Tuesday, the company announced its first quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, because the company's strategic plans such as employee management and distribution route restructuring began to achieve results. As a result, the stock once rose more than 4%.
Data shows that the adjusted earnings per share of the world's largest package delivery company by market value in the first quarter was $1.43, down 35% year on year, but higher than the analyst's expectation of $1.30. Revenue was $21.71 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of $21.86 billion.
Car manufacturer Strantis laid off 199 full-time workers Monday at an assembly plant in suburban Detroit that produces Ram 1500 models.
In March this year, Strandis laid off 341 people in another assembly plant responsible for producing Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator. The company also laid off 239 workers at its Detroit parts factory. Last month, it cut about 2% of American engineering, technology and software jobs, totaling about 400 people.
general motors In the first fiscal quarter, the revenue increased to $43 billion, almost all from the North American market. After a strong first quarter, GM's management expected a more optimistic profit for the whole year, mainly because strong truck sales in the U.S. market prompted the automaker to increase its revenue guidance by about $500 million in 2024.
Novartis Pharmaceutical's first fiscal quarter performance exceeded expectations, and the annual profit guidance was raised.
SAP In the first fiscal quarter, cloud revenue increased by 25% year on year. The total revenue in the first fiscal quarter was 8.04 billion euros, up 8% year on year; Non GAAP earned 0.81 euros per share.
Spotify's total revenue increased by 20% in the first fiscal quarter, and the year-on-year growth of paid users was 14%, which exceeded expectations. Total revenue in the first fiscal quarter increased by 20% to 3.6 billion euros (3.8 billion dollars). The adjusted operating profit was 168 million euros, which exceeded analysts' expectations compared with the loss a year ago.
In other markets, spot gold prices barely changed after hitting the lowest level since April 5 on Tuesday morning, and reported at $2327.50 per ounce. The rebound from March to April pushed it up nearly $400, and the spot gold price reached an all-time high of $2431.29 on April 12.
The settlement price of gold futures in New York fell 0.2% on Tuesday to close at US $2342.10 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.46, or 1.78%, to close at $83.36 a barrel. So far this year, WTI crude oil in the United States has risen by more than 16%.
Europe Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $1.42, or 1.63%, to close at $88.42 per barrel. So far this year, Brent crude oil has risen by nearly 15%.
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