[One week strategy of top ten securities dealers] The third trend of the market is coming! Control the rhythm, stabilize the income, and meet the counter attack after the festival?

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The third trend of the market is coming under the original title of "One week strategy of top ten securities dealers"! Control the rhythm, stabilize the income, and meet the counter attack after the festival?

　　 citic securities : Strengthen value allocation and lay out the market in the fourth quarter

　　 CITIC Securities pointed out that style switching accelerated, weakened short-term game, strengthened value allocation, and arranged the market in the fourth quarter.

　　 The power and production restriction under the dual control of energy consumption is spread all over the country, suppressing the supply side expectation; Real estate credit restructuring affects real estate construction and installation investment, suppresses demand side expectations, and the market's expectations of economic growth are revised downward. Second, it is expected that the policy will respond quickly, speed up the correction of power and production restrictions, and gradually show the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, easing the fundamental expectation that the domestic economy will operate better in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. Third, macro liquidity is still at a stage of ample window. With the release of local real estate credit risk, macro liquidity will be more relaxed. It is expected that the comprehensive RRR reduction in the fourth quarter will be implemented in October. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to grasp the style switching, weaken short-term game, strengthen value allocation, lay out the high prosperity consumption and medicine segments in the value sector, and select the machinery, military industry, semiconductor and lithium batteries in the manufacturing and science and technology sectors whose third quarter reports are expected to exceed expectations.

　　 Guotai Jun'an Securities: stock holding, October market

　　 Since late July, The A-share market has not only a significant rise in the index center, but also a trillion transaction performance for 46 consecutive trading days. So far, new driving forces and paradigms are brewing:

　　 1) Domestic consumption, real estate and other data continue to weaken, and the expected direction of economic downturn has become a consensus. In particular, the pressure on the balance sheet of low-income groups will promote the transmission and diffusion of money to credit.

　　 2) In the context of dual control of energy consumption, although it is difficult to alleviate the squeeze of rising prices of raw materials on the profits of midstream and downstream enterprises in the short term, considering the boundary between stable growth and employment, the most prominent time point of production restriction policy and the contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass.

　　 3) Overseas, although the pace of the Federal Reserve Taper is approaching gradually, under the background of full expectations, the US stock market is difficult to be significantly impacted. Considering the phase difference between domestic and foreign monetary policies, the domestic equity market is more endogenous. Superimposed by the easing of Sino US relations With the G20 Summit approaching and the orderly handling of domestic risk events, the denominator side is gradually making efforts to correct expectations. It is suggested that shareholding should be over the festival and wait for the rising market in the golden autumn of October.

　　 For industry configuration, it is recommended to give priority to prosperity and recommend brokers/new energy/old energy. The risk-free interest rate declines, the secondary growth driven by wealth management, and the incremental contribution of the primary market make the securities industry more sustainable than expected. In addition, after the easing cycle started, the market's actual profits rebounded slowly, and the high boom direction was still scarce. We should pursue the tight balance between supply and demand in the three energy revolutions. To sum up, 1) the first brokerage; 2) New energy with upward industrial trend: nuclear power BIPV、 Photovoltaic; 3) Old energy sources with tight balance between supply and demand: steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum, etc.

　　 Haitong Securities : The third trend of this year is coming, and the market style will be more balanced

　　 Haitong Securities said that the market has experienced two winds this year. Now the third wind has come, the steady growth policy has been promoted, and positive signals have appeared in Sino US relations, and the big finance and infrastructure related manufacturing industries are expected to benefit. Drawing lessons from history, the bull market high point is characterized by crowdsourcing and balanced preparation: hard technology, big finance, infrastructure related manufacturing.

　　 The first nine months of this year will soon pass, during which there are two obvious changes in the market. Before the Spring Festival, the market maintained the inertia of the leading market of last year. From the end of the Spring Festival to the end of March, the market adjusted, and the main line of the market changed. From the end of March to July, the new energy vehicle sector rose the most. In July, the market adjusted again, and since the end of July, the resource stocks have led the way, which is the first two trends of this year. Looking ahead, we believe that the third trend is coming this year, and the market style will be more balanced. The policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the property policy may be improved. The wind is blowing towards the undervalued big finance and infrastructure related manufacturing. A new round of growth is on the way. It is suggested to allocate hard technology, big finance and infrastructure related manufacturing in a balanced manner.

　　 CICC : The market style will still be tangled, the key is to control the pace and stabilize the income, and the more balanced allocation is still applicable

　　 On the whole, CICC believes that the market is still in a "tangle period", and the overall performance may be flat. Structurally, it may still be difficult for the market to show a clear direction in the short term: the growth sector may need to control the pace after a sustained rise since April; The consumption related sector is in a stable period after an early decline, but the consumption data is weak or suppresses the overall performance; The raw material plate, supported by the production restriction factor, rose sharply in the early stage and was also expected to overdraw more. Recently, it also experienced a large-scale decline due to the impact of regulatory expectations and other factors. Before the policy direction is clear, we believe that the market style may still be tangled, and controlling the pace and stabilizing the income may be the current focus.

　　 Configuration suggestion: Balanced configuration in leading and lagging sectors. 1) High prosperity, competitive or growing industry chain in China: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, scientific and technological hardware and software, semiconductor, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. The valuation tends to be higher, and short-term fluctuations increase, so it is advisable to be patient and choose the opportunity to take advantage of bargain hunting; 2) Pan consumer industry: in the fields of daily necessities, household appliances, automobiles and spare parts, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, light industry and household appliances, etc., select stocks from bottom to top in combination with decline and valuation; 3) Some cycles with reasonable valuation, good pattern or growth potential: pay attention to the risk of excessive overdraft of raw material stock price related to production restriction, and focus on industries expected to benefit from stable growth, such as cement, as well as financial leaders that benefit from wealth and asset management. Pay attention to some "old white horses" with more callbacks and attractive valuations.

　　 Essence Securities: The market is likely to fluctuate upwards, and "carbon neutrality" is still the core theme

　　 Essence Securities said that the Evergrande event will not reverse the structural bull under the asset shortage. The financial risk has been under the control of the policy level, and the leading state-owned real estate companies will face opportunities. After the Mid Autumn Festival, it is a good opportunity to layout a new round of market. At the current time point, we remain optimistic about the market: short-term Sino US relations frequently release improvement signals to boost market risk appetite; After the FOMC meeting in September, Taper's expectation gradually became clear, providing a favorable time window for domestic monetary policy operation. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to improve, and the market probability continued to fluctuate upward.

　　 Structurally, carbon neutrality is still the core theme. The double control of energy consumption and power shortage actually point to the same core problem: the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure is still insufficient, and the new energy power generation system (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, grid supporting, and new energy operation) will continue to be improved and vigorously promoted. The prosperity of photovoltaic wind power sector is still high, and there is still room for improvement in the valuation of new energy operation sector, which has recently performed well.

　　 In terms of allocation, it is suggested to continue to grasp the volatile upward market and hold shares for festivals, And continue to focus on the core line of "carbon neutrality". Industry focus: securities companies, photovoltaic, wind power, new energy operation, new energy vehicle chain, state-owned enterprise real estate, etc. The theme focuses on Huawei's concept and export chain.

　　 industrial securities : After experiencing ups and downs, sci-tech innovation has reached a time point worthy of bottom-up layout and excavation

　　 There is no systemic risk in the market, and positive signals are emerging. At the structural level, after experiencing the turbulence of "bottom top", scientific and technological innovation has reached a time point that is worthy of bottom-up layout and bottom excavation.

　　 In addition to scientific and technological innovation, there are also two directions for the left side of the fourth quarter. 1) Consumption: After a substantial adjustment since the beginning of the year, the valuation of the consumption sector has reached a relatively reasonable range. The end of the year will also usher in a valuation switch, and the industry's policy risk is expected to ease before the end of the year. In addition, the gradual easing of Sino US relations and the return of foreign capital will also support the consumption sector. Therefore, the consumer sector is expected to be repaired. 2) New infrastructure: With the rapid economic downturn, increasing pressure on stable growth, and the gradual landing of physical workload at the end of the year, new infrastructure represented by 5G base stations, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, big data centers, ultra-high voltage, charging piles, and intercity rail transit is expected to become the direction of financial focus.

　　 Investment strategy: embrace the long-term, embrace the general direction, and fight the short with the long. Continue to seek bargains, with the core line of high-quality growth represented by "specialty, specialty, novelty" and "small giant" of scientific innovation. 1) High end manufacturing (semiconductor industry chain, military industry chain, etc.), 2) new energy chain (new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, new energy vehicle industry chain, intelligent driving, etc.), 3) AIoT (computers, communications, electronics), 4) life sciences (biomedicine, medical devices, medical services, seeds, etc.).

　　 Tianfeng Securities : Take advantage of trade friction to ease up, and meet the layout opportunity of hard technology track again

　　 Through the unremitting efforts of the Chinese government, Meng Wanzhou, Vice Chairman of Huawei, who was illegally detained by Canada for 1028 days, returned home on a chartered plane by the Chinese government. Tianfeng Securities believes that with the return of Meng Wanzhou, the market's expectation of easing Sino US trade friction is expected to rise again. Once there is a relaxation, the industries and individual stocks that have been greatly impacted by trade frictions in the past will benefit first.

　　 From late July to August, the turnover rate of several hard technology tracks reached a very high level, and began to fall back, corresponding to the phased callback and internal differentiation of several tracks. Compared with the empirical rule of resumption, the adjustment range of energy storage, semiconductor, photovoltaic, military industry and new energy has little room for further sharp decline. If Sino US trade frictions ease and market sentiment recovers, the hard technology track on the global industrial chain will also benefit first. At the same time, the calendar effect shows that in the fourth quarter of each year, the market will advance the direction of high prosperity. To sum up, the opportunity of hard technology track re layout may have emerged.

　　 Guohai Securities : Focus on consumption, big finance and big infrastructure when style switching is in progress

　　 Since July, the economy has started to decline rapidly. In the third quarter, it has entered the downward cycle of profitability at a probable rate, which is reflected in the marked decline of profit growth, ROE (TTM) peaked and fell back. It should be noted that due to changes in the policy environment, the market still has some structural opportunities in the downward earnings cycle.

　　 From the perspective of style, the dominant industries after the earnings enter the downward period tend to appear in finance, growth and consumption. The dominant style often has the comparative advantage of performance. The continuous deduction of the technology industry cycle and event catalysis are the necessary conditions for growth dominance. The stability of consumption and financial performance is better, and it is possible to achieve phased excess returns. Back to the present, the market style rotation since the third quarter of this year has experienced a growth period from May to July and a cycle from August to September. The cycle plate is becoming more sensitive to changes in demand, more passive to changes in supply, and the cost performance ratio is gradually decreasing, The direction of subsequent rotation can focus on the consumption with relatively stable profitability, the big finance that benefits from the policy of stable growth, and the counter cyclical big infrastructure.

　　 Shanxi Securities : The technology industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, and there is still room for consumer themes to recover

　　 This week, the upstream sector ended its strong performance, and the consumer sector rebounded. In addition, the trading volume has shrunk this week, and the funds in the market are gradually transferring to the new main line. From the perspective of the overall valuation of A-shares, the overall PEG level of A-shares is at the historical median level, and the cost performance ratio is still high. In the medium and long term, the technology industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, and there is still room for consumer themes to recover, The overall fundamental support of A-share is strong, and the long-term volatility of the index continues to move upward.

　　 This week, the cycle plate and the consumption plate take turns, and the plate fluctuates greatly. The P/B ratio of the raw materials sector is at a historical high, and the sector lacks long-term growth logic. Coal, steel and other bulk commodities are subject to dual control and multiple geographical restrictions. Downstream demand is cut, and the risk of future sector adjustment is large, so investors are advised to avoid it. The valuation of consumption growth sectors such as medicine, food and beverage, electronics and communications has been at a short-term low, and there is limited room for further adjustment. After consolidation at a low level, relevant sectors will usher in expectations and valuation improvement with the macroeconomic recovery. In the new week, it is suggested to focus on medicine and military industry. In the medium and long term, it is suggested to focus on information technology.

　　 Guosheng Securities: The market is likely to rest before the festival, and is expected to welcome a counter attack after the festival

　　 After the return of the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic market was not in danger. The stock market fluctuated widely, and the bond market also recovered. Near the long holiday, the recent transaction activity has cooled, and the focus of the market has also begun to shift to the fourth quarter. Since late September, there has been an obvious deviation between going north and financing, which actually reflects the differences between internal and external funds on risk pricing. At the same time, the trend of Hong Kong shares and A-shares has also diverged, which is essentially caused by the different understanding of domestic and foreign funds, including real estate credit risks and policy trends.

　　 In the near future, the "dual control" of energy consumption aggravates the pressure of economic stagflation, but there is no need to worry about the market pricing stagflation. In combination with the historical calendar effect, the market is likely to take a rest before the National Day holiday, and is expected to welcome a counter attack after the holiday; From the perspective of earnings characteristics, the performance of the third quarter report has a strong explanatory power for the rise and fall of companies after the festival.

　　 In the context of continued price flexibility and obvious relative performance advantages, we continue to be optimistic about the performance of upstream varieties, with the focus on coal, chemicals, aluminum/small metals, natural gas and shipping; The trend of unilateral dominance in growth has turned. For the suggestion of maintaining a gradual increase in holdings of value stocks, undervalued recommendations are: securities companies, construction, power, consumer core assets and Hong Kong stock Internet leaders suggest the layout on the left; Focus on the direction of new infrastructure development. In addition, we can focus on the beneficial industries under the Sino US trade easing.

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