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Wen Wang Youruo
In the early trading of Monday, the trend of the three major A-share indexes diverged. As the afternoon market approached, the market plunged. As of the noon closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index had closed at 3565.94, down 1.3%; The Shenzhen Composite Index ended at 14279.38, down 0.55%; The GEM index rose 0.43% to 3221.63. Half day turnover of the two markets exceeded 950 billion yuan.
On the market side, the front line liquor stocks that had been recalled in the earlier period broke out collectively, Golden Seed Wine 、 Luzhou Laojiao And other multi share trading limits, Guizhou Moutai 、 Wuliangye First sealing plate. In addition, PetroChina It was also active, hitting a new stage high of 6.36 yuan/share in the session.
On the other hand, the upstream resources represented by coal, chemicals and non-ferrous metals did not stop the downward trend, becoming the main factor that dragged down the market.
Guizhou Moutai shares hit the ceiling
In the morning of Monday, liquor stocks rose strongly in the session, and Luzhou Laojiao rose rapidly after the opening, taking the lead in trading up and down, with its market value jumping more than 300 billion yuan. It is worth noting that, compared with the previous Shede Liquor Industry The second tier liquor stocks represented by the Chinese liquor companies led the rise in different prices. Today, all the first tier liquor brands broke out in the morning.
Guizhou Moutai, with a total market value of more than 2 trillion yuan, hit the intraday limit. As of the noon closing, it was 1855 yuan/share, up 9.5%, with a total market value of 2.33 trillion yuan.
Choice data shows that this is the first trading limit of Guizhou Moutai since 2016. In 2015, Guizhou Moutai had two trading limits and 14 trading limits in history.
Wuliangye's share price also opened high in the morning, hitting the ceiling several times in the session. As of noon closing, Gujing Gong wine Luzhou Laojiao closed the limit, and Wuliangye and Guizhou Maotai both increased by more than 9%. The overall growth rate of food and beverage sector was 6.41%, significantly ahead of the performance of all Shenyi class industries.
According to the analysis of many institutions, the upcoming National Day holiday is an important factor to boost the strength of high-end liquor.
China Merchants Securities It was pointed out that the valuation risk of the liquor sector has been released after a sharp correction. Since September, the margin of emotional repression has narrowed, and the bottoming period has gradually passed. The event catalysis represented by the positive communication signal released by the new commander in Maotai, Guizhou, is gradually coming; At the same time, the enterprise valuation has entered the switching range. High end liquor has a good business model, and the configuration cost performance ratio has become prominent.
China Merchants Securities said that low expectations are the weight of exceeding expectations. In the general environment of consumer goods in the Mid Autumn Festival, although the drinks are not very popular, the completion of leading enterprises is generally high, and the performance of the third quarter was steady or even beyond expectations.
The strategy team of Yuekai Securities also believes that the National Day holiday is coming, the traditional consumption peak season is expected to directly benefit the big consumption sector, and the big consumption sector has a high victory rate before the festival.
Cycle stocks continue to decline
The organization suggests strengthening balanced allocation
On the one hand, the traditional big consumption sector is booming, while on the other hand, the chemical industry, rare earth, coal and other cyclical sectors, as well as the early strong power stocks, fell sharply. A leading maritime transport company with a total market value of about 300 billion yuan COSCO Marine Control In the morning trading, it was closed at a limit of 19.34 yuan per share.
Chinalco 、 Shengtun Mining 、 Yongxing Materials In the early stage, strong individual stocks fell by the limit in batches. Nonferrous metal, chemical industry and steel industries led the decline of all Shenyi class industries. In addition, the defense and military industry sector also suffered a deeper decline.
citic securities The strategy team said that the current market trading is still active, but the pricing power will gradually shift from "short money" to "long money". CITIC Securities believes that, structurally, due to the temporary lack of consensus in the market, retail investors and hot money are still the main contributors to the recent active trading and investment. The A-share style rotates rapidly with a weekly or even daily frequency. It seems that the turnover has exceeded trillion yuan for 46 consecutive trading days, but the earning effect represented by the composite index is general. This is undoubtedly a rapid consumption of retail investors and hot money behind the trillion yuan transaction. It is expected that the marginal pricing ability of short-term funds on the market will gradually weaken.
Therefore, in terms of allocation, it is suggested that investors should desalinate short-term games, stay away from high volatility varieties, strengthen the allocation of value sectors, and combine prosperity and valuation to find the positive expectation difference of subdivision tracks.
CITIC Securities believes that the following three main lines are worth paying attention to: first, the consumption and medicine in the high boom in the value sector, especially the subdivided industries that are in good operating condition but have been significantly adjusted due to transaction or policy factors in the early stage; Second, the manufacturing and science and technology sectors need to pay more attention to the matching degree between valuation and earnings, and recommend highly flexible products such as machinery, military industry, semiconductor and lithium battery whose performance in the third quarter is expected to continue to exceed expectations; Third, it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of Internet leaders in Hong Kong stocks against the background that the repressive factors have improved but have not been completely eliminated.
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