On September 27, it was reported that shipping stocks weakened in the morning. As of press release, COSCO Haifa 、 CSC Phoenix Drop limit, Zhonggu Logistics 、 COSCO Marine Control Down more than 8%, Ningbo Shipping 、 Merchant ship Wait and fall.
The macro research team of Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that, in the past 10 years, the industry has been depressed, and major container transport companies have reduced capital expenditure on a large scale, leading to a significant decline in the growth center of global container transport capacity. At the same time, the existing transport capacity is insufficient, and the new ship delivery cycle of at least two years will make the capacity of the consolidation industry almost inelastic in the next two years. The shortage of seafarers will further limit the release of maritime transport capacity due to the long training cycle and the reduced job attractiveness caused by the superimposed epidemic situation. Experience shows that the training and internship time for ordinary seafarers and senior seafarers need at least 10 months and 2 years respectively. As the epidemic has led to the loss of some seafarers, and the frequent mutation of the virus has greatly reduced the attractiveness of seafarers' work, the loss rate of global seafarers, especially senior seafarers, is high, and the gap continues to expand.
The macro research team of open-source securities said that, in general, with the large-scale promotion of vaccines, the import demand of the United States and Europe has remained high, as well as the serious shortage of new transport capacity in the industry, the seafarer gap has continued to expand, the trend of superimposed oil prices has soared, and the sea freight rate may continue to be high.
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