European stock markets and US stock index futures rose, and gold prices stabilized. The whole Wall Street will pay close attention to the April non farm employment report to further observe wage changes, which may change the expectations of inflation background and interest rates.
As of press release, Dow futures rose 0.7%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.7%.
Germany's DAX index rose 0.4%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.5%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.5%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.5%.
WTI crude oil rose 0.32% to US $79.20/barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.41% to USD 84.01/barrel.
The market pays close attention to the non farm employment report in April, Dow Jones Economists surveyed expect an increase of 240000 jobs, slower than the 303000 increase in March; At the same time, the average hourly salary is expected to increase by 4% year on year; The unemployment rate will stabilize at 3.8%.
The PMI final value of service industry and the PMI of ISM service industry will be released later, which are expected to be 50.9 and 52.0 respectively, providing clues for insight into the performance of the service industry and broader economic trends.
At present, the bet in the option market has shown that the US stock market may fluctuate significantly after the US nonfarm employment report is released later.
Traders expect that the report will more clearly show how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. stock trading strategy at Citigroup, said that according to the cost calculation of in price put options and call options expiring on Friday, the fluctuation of the S&P 500 index may reach 1.2% after the release of tonight's non-agricultural report.
Despite Thursday's rebound, the major stock indexes will still be in a negative area at the end of this week. The S&P 500 index has fallen 0.7% so far this week; The Nasdaq fell nearly 0.6%; The Dow fell 0.04%.
At the end of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday, Powell seemed to rule out the possibility of the central bank's next action, but this does not necessarily mean that traders should start hoping to cut interest rates in the near future.
Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist of Carson Group, said: "Although inflation is still high, it is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, the obstacles to raising interest rates are really high. The continued strength of the labor market has also reduced the urgency of interest rate cuts, but the current potential interest rate ceiling and a strong economy are beneficial to the stock market."
"Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst": If the job market weakens, sell American stocks quickly!
The US April non farm employment report will be released at 20:30 tonight Beijing time. Prior to this, Michael Hartnett, who is known as the "most quasi strategist on Wall Street", issued a report warning that the weak employment report will be a sign of stagflation, which will increase the possibility of the stock market being sold off.
If the report of the Labor Department on Friday showed that the number of new jobs in the United States in April was less than 125000, and the average hourly wage increased by more than 0.4% compared with the previous month, it would be a report reminding "stagflation risk aversion".
On the other hand, Hartnett wrote in the report that if the number of employees increases by more than 225000 and the average hourly wage increases by less than 0.2%, this will be interpreted as "Goldilocks, risk regression". At present, the market generally expects that the number of non farm employment in the United States will increase by 240000 in April, and the average hourly wage may increase by 0.3% compared with last month.
Options traders did not believe Powell and still predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates before the end of the year.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said it was "unlikely" to raise interest rates, option traders were still predicting the possibility that the central bank might raise borrowing costs by the end of this year.
According to Ben Emons, senior portfolio manager and fixed income director of NewEdge Wealth, New York, as of Thursday, options related to overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) showed that the probability of interest rate increase in September or December was about 18% and more than 20% respectively.
Emons also pointed out that option traders believe that the possibility of interest rate increase in June is 3.1%. The overnight guaranteed financing rate is a broad measure of overnight borrowing costs guaranteed by national debt. SOFR is the successor of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor). Option traders have been guarding against the risk of interest rate hikes and multiple interest rate cuts.
Hedge funds seek refuge in volatile markets, and defensive stocks have become a new favorite.
Due to geopolitical uncertainty, interest rate changes and poor stock market performance, the investment community is becoming more cautious. Goldman Sachs According to the data provided by the Group's prime brokerage business department, hedge funds increased their defensive stock positions in their portfolios at the fastest rate in eight months in April, and became net sellers of global stocks, ending the previous four consecutive months of buying.
In this process, healthcare stocks attracted the most capital inflows, while consumer discretionary stocks suffered the largest net selling in seven months.
Keith Lerner, co chief investment officer of Truist Wealth, believes that it is reasonable for hedge funds to take a more defensive stance. He pointed out that despite the strong performance of the market in the first quarter, the volatility of interest rates and inflation has increased, which undoubtedly brought pressure to the market.
Focus stocks
Apple It rose nearly 6% before the session and announced a record US $110 billion buyback.
Amgen It rose by more than 14% before the session, and the mid-term trial of new weight-loss drugs obtained positive data. novo nordisk It fell 2.4% before the session.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Guo Mingyu
