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The residential inventory in Baicheng increased significantly for the first time in 45 months and rebounded for the first time in 9 months on month. Market institutions are expected to return to the upstream channel in the fourth quarter. Recently, according to the latest data released by E-House Research Institute, as of the end of September 2018, the total inventory of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities under monitoring was 434.88 million square meters, an increase of 2.9% month on month and a decrease of 5.5% year on year.
Data shows that since January 2015, the inventory scale of 100 cities across the country has shown a continuous downward trend. Although some months in the middle have rebounded, the downward trend has not changed. In September this year, the inventory scale increased significantly and climbed significantly.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think-tank center of E-House Research Institute, believes that "this also means that the inventory trend is at an inflection point and will return to the upward channel in the fourth quarter".
Yan Yuejin said: "From the year-on-year growth data, after 34 consecutive months of year-on-year decline in inventory in first tier cities, there was a positive year-on-year growth trend in June for the first time. From July to September, there continued to be positive year-on-year growth, which means that first tier cities are entering the stage of replenishing inventory. While second tier cities and third and fourth tier cities continue to decline year-on-year, the decline is continuing to narrow."
In September 2018, 38 of the 100 cities saw year-on-year inventory growth. Among them, Hefei, Huizhou and Zhenjiang saw a large increase in inventory, with year-on-year growth rates of 78%, 48% and 47% respectively. At the same time, the inventory of 62 of the 100 cities declined year on year, with Dalian, Anqing and Shenzhen falling by 43%, 35% and 35% respectively.
It is worth mentioning that, by horizontal comparison, the inventory sales ratio of the third and fourth tier cities has declined significantly this year. Yan Yuejin pointed out in his analysis that "based on the comprehensive historical data, in the second half of 2018, the strategies of the third and fourth tier cities to change from shantytowns to housing estates have been adjusted, especially the cities with insufficient inventory of commercial residential buildings and great pressure on the rise of housing prices will face more adjustments. Based on such policy judgments, it can be believed that the bottom of the inventory sales ratio of the third and fourth tier cities has been basically completed, and the fourth quarter will face the possibility of rebound".
"In September 2018, the inventory data of 100 cities across the country rose, indicating that the supply scale is large, but the market deconstruction effect is average. The inventory trend also increases the marketing pressure of real estate enterprises, which will further rely on the strategy of exchanging price for quantity.". In Yan Yuejin's view, "the increase of inventory scale has also solved the current situation of insufficient inventory and out of stock in cities to some extent, and has also increased the bargaining space for buyers". The opinion of this article only represents the author himself. If the source of the article is a network reprint, this website is an information publishing platform. If there is infringement, please contact this website to delete it in time.
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