Core viewpoints
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the operation of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country from January to March 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, the operating revenue of enterprises above designated size nationwide will reach 309640.9 billion yuan, up 2.3% year on year; The total profit was 1505.53 billion yuan, up 4.3% year on year. The production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water achieved an operating revenue of 3133.86 billion yuan, up 5.8% year on year; The total profit was 192.12 billion yuan, up 40.0% year on year. Among them, the total profit of power and heat production and supply industries was 164.47 billion yuan, up 47.5% year on year; The profit of gas production and supply industry was 19.54 billion yuan, down 2% year on year; The profit of water production and supply industry was 8.11 billion yuan, up 42% year on year. We believe that in 2024Q1, the profit of China's power and heating industry has significantly increased, mainly due to the impact of factors such as the continuous downward trend of coal prices, the improvement of water and electricity supply, and the high increase of power consumption in the whole society since 2024. At present, the supply and demand structure of steam coal tends to be loose. We expect that the rebound space of coal price is effective, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to continue to improve.
Industry dynamic information
Market review: From April 19 to April 26, the power sector (882528. WI) fell 1.27%, the CSI 300 index rose 1.20%, and the power sector underperformed the market by 2.47 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2024, the power sector has risen by 10.9 percentage points, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 4.46% over the same period. The power sector has outperformed the market by 6.44 percentage points since the beginning of the year. In terms of molecular plate, the changes of thermal power, hydropower and gas (CITIC index) from April 19 to April 26 were -0.32%, -1.08% and -0.73% respectively.
The spot price of steam coal decreased by 1.19% month on month, 17.82% year on year. On April 26, the spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal in Qinhuangdao was 830 yuan/ton, 1.19% month on month, 17.82% year on year. In terms of imported coal, the price of 5500 kcal Indonesian coal in Guangzhou Port was 964 yuan/ton on April 27, an increase of 0.63% month on month and a decrease of 13.77% year on year. On April 24, the comprehensive average price of the Bohai Rim Steam Coal Index 5500 kcal was 712.00 yuan/ton, flat month on month, down 2.73% year on year.
Qinhuangdao Port inventory decreased by 2.52% month on month and 0.79% year on year
In terms of coal inventory, as of April 27, Qingang had 5.02 million tons of inventory, down 130000 tons month on month, down 2.52%, and 30000 tons year on year, down 0.79%. The inventory of Guangzhou Port on April 26 was 2.954 million tons, an increase of 94000 tons month on month, or 3.29%, and an increase of about 91000 tons year on year, or 3.18%.
Investment advice
In terms of power, we are still optimistic about the targets of new energy operation for thermal power transformation, including Shenneng, Shanghai Electric Power, Huadian International, Huaneng International, Funeng, Datang Power Generation, Wanneng Power, China Resources Power, and recommended China Nuclear Power, Three Gorges Energy, and Zhongmin Energy for the robustness target. In addition, we also recommend Wubai Hydropower Station to inject Yangtze River Power, a hydropower leader that improves the profitability of the company, and Huaneng Hydropower, which benefits from the continuous improvement of market price in the province.
