Monthly power data:
Market review in March: CS power and utilities sector rose 4.32% in March, and the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, 3.71 percentage points higher than the market, ranking 8/29. In CITIC's three-level industry classification sector, thermal power rose 8.68%, hydropower rose 1.20%, other power generation rose 2.27%, and power grid rose 0.98%.
Power consumption end: from January to March, the power consumption of the whole society and sub sectors achieved rapid growth. From January to March, the total power consumption of the whole society reached 2337.3 billion kWh, up 9.8% year on year, 6.20 pct higher than that of the same period last year. In March, the power consumption of the whole society reached 794.2 billion kWh, up 7.4% year on year, 1.48 pct higher than that of the same period last year. From January to March, the power consumption of all departments maintained a rapid growth, and the growth rate of residential power consumption in March was further improved. From January to March, the cumulative electricity consumption of primary, secondary and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents were 288, 15056, 423.5 and 379.4 billion kilowatt hours respectively, up 9.7%, 8.0%, 14.3% and 12.0% year on year; The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents in March was 96 billion kWh, 5421 billion kWh, 1365 billion kWh and 106 billion kWh respectively, up 7.0%, 4.9%, 11.6% and 15.8% year on year.
Power generation: power generation from January to March exceeded expectations, and thermal power grew steadily; Wind power generation increased significantly in March.
From January to March, the cumulative generating capacity of power plants above designated size was 2237.2 billion kWh, up 6.7% year on year,; Among them, thermal power, hydropower, wind power, nuclear power and photovoltaic power generation increased by 6.6%, 2.2%, 11.0% and 0.6% 17.5% year on year. In March, the cumulative power generation of power plants above designated size was 747.7 billion kWh, up 2.8% year on year, 2.3 pct lower than that of the same period last year; Among them, thermal power reached 520.1 billion kWh, up 0.5% year on year,; 71.2 billion kWh of hydropower, up 16.8% year on year; 90.5 billion kWh of wind power, up 16.8% year on year,; Nuclear power 34.8 billion kWh, down 4.8% year on year; PV 31.1 billion kWh, up 15.8% year on year.
From January to March, the utilization efficiency of thermal power and hydropower generation equipment increased year on year. From January to March, the growth rate of new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power was remarkable, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaic accounted for 65.9%. From January to March, the newly increased installed capacity of power in China reached 69.43 million kilowatt hours, and the newly increased total installed capacity in March was 16.71 million kilowatt hours, including 780000 kilowatt hours of hydropower, 1.31 million kilowatt hours of thermal power, 5.61 million kilowatt hours of wind power, and 9.02 million kilowatt hours of photovoltaic power. PV accounted for 65.9% of the new installed capacity from January to March, while thermal power, hydropower and wind power accounted for 9.2%, 2.6% and 22.3% respectively. From January to March, the overall power investment increased steadily, and the power grid investment grew rapidly. The investment in national power construction projects was 136.5 billion yuan, up 7.7% year on year; The investment in power grid construction was 76.6 billion yuan, up 14.7% year on year.
High frequency tracking: In March, the cost of thermal power was improved, and the water inflow was generally low.
Comments and investment suggestions:
The electricity consumption is expected to continue to grow, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to further improve. On the power consumption side, from January to March 2024, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society and sub sectors will maintain a high growth trend, and the proportion of three industries will further increase.
The future development of new quality productivity and the trend of electric energy substitution will be determined, and the demand for electricity consumption will be further improved. According to the guidelines of China Electricity Council, the power consumption of the whole society is expected to increase by 6% in 2024. On the power generation side, from January to March, the equipment utilization rate of thermal power enterprises improved overall, benefiting from the improved performance growth on the cost side; In the long run, after the implementation of the coal power capacity price mechanism, the two-part price will continue to support the stable profitability of thermal power enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the early layout of new quality productivity and the relatively high scale of Yangtze River Delta Thermal Power [Waneng Power], [Sheneng Shares] and [Zheneng Shares]; The implementation of capacity electricity price and the support of electricity demand are expected to benefit national thermal power plants such as [Huadian International] and [Huaneng International].
Risk warning: Electricity market transactions cause fluctuations in grid price; The price of steam coal rises; Power demand is less than expected; The decrease of precipitation led to the unexpected water inflow.
