Event: In 2023, the company will achieve an operating revenue of 1.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.4 billion yuan, up 25.17% year on year; The weighted ROE was 12.63%, an increase of 1.83 pct over the same period of the previous year; The basic EPS was 0.9864 yuan, up 23.96% year on year.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company realized an operating revenue of 258 million yuan, up 2.92% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.273 billion yuan, up 12.06% year on year; The weighted ROE was 3.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 pct; The basic EPS was 0.2665 yuan, up 4.65% year on year.
The power generation capacity of Tianwanhe cascade power stations has been restored, and the main power business has been steadily improved. In 2023, the company's electric power industry will achieve an operating revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, up 12.25% year on year; The operating cost was 570 million yuan, down 4.48% year on year; The gross profit was 550 million yuan, up 37.14% year on year; The gross profit rate was 49.11%, up 8.91 pct year on year. In 2023, the company's total on grid power will be 5.144 billion kWh, up 9.4% year on year.
Among them, hydropower was 4.913 billion kWh, up 6.39% year on year; PV 231 million kWh, up 175% year on year. Benefiting from the recovery of power generation capacity of Tianwanhe cascade power stations, and the merger of Guiping PV power station by Panxin Energy, the company's main power business has steadily improved.
By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of the company's shareholding reached 36.53 million kilowatts (excluding Three Gorges Energy, CGN Wind Power and CGN Huineng); In 2023, Guangxi Rong'an Yuchai New Energy Co., Ltd. will be newly controlled by 51%, and the installed capacity of new energy holdings will be newly increased by 100000 kilowatts; Winning the development right of the 1.2 million kilowatt Pingshan pumped storage project through open government preference; The holding development of Jinsha River Yinjiang Hydropower Station (390000 kW) has entered the stage of electromechanical equipment installation, and the first unit is planned to be put into operation at the end of December 2024.
Investment income continued to increase, and Yalong River hydropower contributed 91% of the total profit. In 2023, the company's investment income will be 4.813 billion yuan, an increase of 898 million yuan (+22.94%) year on year. The investment income of Yalong River Hydropower, which holds 48% of shares, is 4.154 billion yuan, an increase of 602 million yuan year-on-year, accounting for 91% of the company's total profit in 2023; The investment income of Daduhe Company, which holds 20% of shares, increased by 150 million yuan on a year-on-year basis; The investment income of CNH Huineng, which holds 6.4% shares, increased by 122 million yuan on a year-on-year basis.
The inflow of Q1 basin has improved year on year, and the main business and investment income in a single quarter have increased. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's operating revenue increased, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the revenue of subsidiaries Tianwanhe Company and Sichuan Investment Power Company. In the first quarter of 2024, the total on grid power of the company will be 770 million kilowatt hours, an increase of 10.63% year on year, and the water inflow of the basin where some of the holding hydropower enterprises are located will be better than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's investment income now stands at 1.328 billion yuan, up 6.14% year on year. Investment suggestion: the power supply and demand in Sichuan Province will continue to be in tight balance, and the construction of internal and external transmission channels will be superimposed. The company's holding of hydropower stations and its shareholding in Yalong River Hydropower and State Energy Dadu River are expected to further increase their power generation and continue to contribute to the income. It is estimated that the company will achieve operating revenue of RMB 1611 million, RMB 1.885 billion and RMB 1.938 billion in 2024-2026, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.982 billion, RMB 5.415 billion and RMB 5.703 billion, with year-on-year growth of 13.2%, 8.7% and 5.3%. The corresponding EPS is 1.02, 1.11 and 1.17 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 16.5X, 15.2X and 14.4X, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: water inflow is less than expected, electricity price drops more than expected, natural disasters, electricity demand is less than expected, uncertain risks brought by the implementation of relevant policies, and the progress of new projects is less than expected.
