Analysts' recommendation
[Dongxing Automobile] Zoomlion Shares (301397. SZ): revenue continues to grow at a high rate, and new products and projects are expected to boost profitability (20240425)
Recently, the company released its 2023 annual report: during the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 1010520000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 150755000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%. Comments are as follows:
Revenue continued to grow at a high rate. In 2023, the company's revenue will grow by 19.0%, higher than that in 2022 (17%).
The revenue of 2023Q4 was 332287600 yuan, up 16.28% year on year, the highest quarterly revenue since 2021. In 2023, the sales volume of the company's main product automotive fluid pipeline assembly will reach 37.5375 million, up 37.67% year on year, mainly due to the significant increase in the sales volume of fuel and evaporative emission pipelines and thermal management pipelines for new energy vehicles. In 2023, the company's new energy vehicle revenue will be about 435 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of more than 28%. The growth of new energy business has become the main driving force of the company's revenue growth.
Due to the decline of product prices, the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the period expense rate has increased. In 2023, the Company's comprehensive gross profit margin will be 28.11%, lower than 32.72% in 2022. Quarterly, the gross profit rate is 22.28% in 2023Q4, 28.55% in 2023Q3, and 32.54% in 2022Q4. The decrease in gross profit margin is obviously related to the decrease in the unit price of the company's products. The unit price of the product is calculated according to the revenue, growth rate and sales volume of the automobile fluid pipeline and assembly business disclosed by the company in 2023. The unit price of the business product is 23.46 yuan/piece in 2023 and 27.82 yuan/piece in 2022, with a 15.7% decrease in the unit price (regardless of the impact of the product structure). The company's period expense rate (sales+management+R&D expense rate) will be 13.78% in 2023 and 11.88% in 2022, which will be improved by the completion of listing, market promotion and new product R&D in 2023.
New products and projects are expected to boost the company's profitability. According to the company's 2023 annual report, the company has added a large number of high-quality automobile and non automobile customers in 2023. As TIER1, the company has obtained supplier certifications including Ideals, Hezhong, Dongfeng Nissan, etc; As TIER2, the company has obtained the supplier system certification of Japan Sanying, Bosch Group and INERGY, and completed the customer layout of the world's top three fuel tank enterprises (INERGY, Cortex and Yapu); As a non automotive field, the company has completed the formal review of the domestic energy storage system integrators Hibostron and Cairi Energy, and turned to the stage of comprehensive business cooperation. In 2023, the company will add more than 1000 product fixed-point projects, with a total of more than 2000 projects under development in the early stage. We believe that with the landing of new projects and new customers, new products are better than mature products in terms of product price and profitability, and the landing of new products is expected to boost the company's profitability.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: The company has strong R&D strength and market development capabilities in the nylon pipeline field. We are optimistic about the company's medium and long-term development. We expect the company's net profit from 2024-2026 to be 170 million yuan, 210 million yuan and 247 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 1.7 million yuan, 2.10 million yuan and 2.47 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE value of the current stock price is 19, 16 and 13 times respectively. Maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: The promotion of the company's new energy vehicle related products was less than expected, the development of the new energy vehicle industry was less than expected, and the prosperity of the automobile industry was less than expected.
