When the premium rate of Dong'e Ejiao warrants is more than 15%, it can be considered to sell

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　　 Essence Securities: When the premium rate of Dong'e Ejiao's equity warrant is more than 15%, it can be considered to sell

On July 18, Essence Securities released its investment report. When the premium rate of Dong'e Ejiao Equity Warrant (031007. SZ) is above 15%, it can be considered to sell.

Since 2008, the annual volatility of Dong'e Ejiao (6000423. SZ) in the monthly range has been stable. According to Essence Securities, after the listing and circulation of Dong'e Ejiao Equity Warrant (031007. SZ), the six-month interval annual volatility of regular shares remained at 50-60%.

From the initial performance of the listing of comparable warrants, within three months after the listing, they can obtain a higher premium, and then gradually decline; Since the second half of 2007 Yuntianhua CWB1 (580012. SH), Steel Vanadium GFC1 (031002. SZ), Masteel CWB1 (580010. SH), Wuhan Iron and Steel CWB1 (580013. SH) were mostly subscribed at a negative premium. Analysis of the trend of premium rate shows that investors are not optimistic about the later performance of positive shares and believe that the intrinsic value will decrease when the rights are exercised at maturity; Since May 2008, the deep decline of steel shares has led to a decrease in the degree of the corresponding warrant price, and the steel subscription premium rate has risen significantly beyond zero.

At the beginning of the listing of Dong'e Ejiao equity warrants, the premium rate will be around 10%. The main reasons are as follows: 1. The issuance volume of warrants is 131 million, and its theoretical price is high, which belongs to the large market warrant with steel subscription; High transaction price and large market value are two factors that restrict speculation of speculative funds. II Wuliangye The equity warrant is highly comparable with Dong'e Ejiao equity warrant. From the relationship between the inside and outside price of Wuliang's subscription and the premium rate, the deep inside price determines the low premium level. Therefore, in combination with the current market environment, it is expected that the premium rate of the listing positioning of Dong'e Ejiao Equity Warrants can remain in the range of 10-20%, and the premium rate will move down appropriately in the later period, which may reach a negative premium state.

Based on the closing price of Dong'e Ejiao A shares of 21.41 yuan/share on July 17, the warrant market price corresponding to the 20% premium rate is 20.19 yuan/share. Being optimistic about the trend of positive shares, it can be used as a substitute for positive shares, with a certain leverage effect; If the stock price trend is not optimistic in the later period, consider selling when the premium rate is above 15% in the first few trading days of listing and circulation trading.