Short term or repeated shocks in the original box (reviewed on the 29th)

Today, the market opened 4 points higher, and the index fluctuated and fell. The highest touch was 3107 points, the lowest touch was 3050 points, and it closed at 3062 points, down 23 points, down 0.77%. The deal was slightly enlarged, and the stock fell more than it rose less.

Weekly review analysis "On the technical side, the index continued to fall this week, falling below 5, 10, 20 and 30 antennas, falling below the double necked line of 3153, and also falling below the original box of 3129 on the track. On Friday, it also made up for the upward gap above 3093. Funds continued to flow out significantly, and the deal shrank. The MACD green column continued to expand, and the opening of KDJ and RSI continued to expand after the dead fork. The weekly line is drawn out of the long negative line and falls below the 5 weekly line and 250 weekly line. The short-term market has not yet stabilized, and the front box between 2963 and 3129 may be sorted out next week. ".

Today, the market fluctuated downward, and super funds and total funds continued to flow out in large quantities.

The index bottomed out three times after its high opening this morning, but it also rebounded three times and turned red. In the afternoon, driven by the rise of 50 index stocks, it rose 21 points. In fact, it was still a volatile market in general, but only a volatile downward trend in the late afternoon.

On the technical side, the index did not recover the neck line level of 3153 today after filling the gap down last Friday, even the original box of 3129 was not touched on the track, and it still fell before the closing. Funds continued to flow out in large quantities, and the transaction was enlarged. The MSCD green column is further enlarged, and the KDJ and RSI openings are continuously enlarged. The double neckline position is effectively broken, and the short-term market will vibrate repeatedly in the original box between 2963 and 3129.

The 3288 callback said that there are three possibilities. One is that the front box upper rail 3129 and 3288 oscillate repeatedly, with the highest probability. The other is that the 3129 is broken instantly to make up the gap above 3093 and then pulled back to the 3129 to continue the oscillation. Third, the original box oscillated repeatedly between 3129 and 2963 in extreme cases, which is a small probability event.

Last Thursday, it fell below the double neck level of 3153, and also fell below the upper rail of the original box of 3129. On Friday, the gap above 3093 was filled again. Today, it continues to decline, getting farther and farther away from the neck line of 3153. Technically, it has effectively broken through the double neckline, and the theoretical decline has doubled. That is, 3288-3153=1353153-135=3018, and the theoretical target is 3018 points.

The three possibilities given when 3288 went down are obviously unrealistic in the short term. That is to say, the first trend of probability rate has disappeared, and the second trend of probability rate has not been brought back immediately after filling. Then the rest is the shock of the original box that fell back between 2963-3129. The small probability event originally analyzed has become the probability event.

At present, this short-term trend analysis is not satisfactory, and the large probability of judgment has not been realized, but the stock market is not absolute, and it is common to take a small probability. It's normal even if you are completely wrong. Where does the immortal come from? At least so far, there are still three predicted trend ranges.

According to historical experience, it is not wrong to analyze the typical bull market feature that the previous 13 weeks of record rising, and the trading volume repeatedly breaking trillion yuan. As for the midline market, it is still too early to define it. The market of 6124 and 5178 has also been adjusted to near the 60 antenna. There are also times when the number of transactions has shrunk from 800 billion to 220 billion unilaterally in Shanghai. At least the current number of transactions has only shrunk from more than 500 billion to less than 300 billion, and there are still more than 800 billion in the two cities (not to mention that the current market is larger than in the past, I specially wrote that in the past, the number of transactions has shrunk from 800 billion to 220 billion, and the current number of transactions has only shrunk from more than 500 billion to less than 300 billion).

There is no sign of stabilizing and rebounding in the short-term market, and the index will fluctuate repeatedly in the original box of 3129-2963. The first target double head target is 3018, that is, near the 60 antenna, and the second target box is off the rail near 2963.

What if someone said that the original box of 2963 was broken off the rail? In that case, it can only be said that we need to re-examine the market. It's not time to change your mind.

In operation, the position shall be controlled. If the light position falls back to the relevant technical position, the position can be added. I always believe that position control cannot be absolute, and it is irrational to have a full short position. No matter the rise or fall, it is not hard. The position you can easily deal with is your most reasonable position. Of course, except for those who are also suffering from ups and downs, such people should not come to the stock market.

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