The short-term market has not yet stabilized (reviewed on the 6th)

Today, the market opened 93 points lower, and the index fluctuated downward. The highest touch was 2986 points, the lowest touch was 2876 points, and the lowest touch was 2906 points. The market fell 171 points, or 5.58%. The volume of transactions was large, and individual stocks fell.

Weekly review analysis "On the technical side, this week's small negative and small positive indexes continued to shake and sort out in the front box area, and the double necked line position effectively broke. Funds still flowed out, and transactions continued to shrink. The MACD green column was further enlarged, and the opening of KDJ and RSI after the amplification of the dead fork continued to fall. The weekly line fell below the 5, 10 and 250 week lines, and the MACD red column continued to shorten. There is no sign of improvement in the short-term market, and the front box between 2963 and 3129 may continue to sort out next week, or rebound. ". Today, the market fluctuated downward, with huge outflows of super funds and total funds.

Today, the index jumped sharply downward and opened low. After opening low, it continued to decline. At one time, it fell more than 200 points. After losing nearly half of the market increase, it pulled up two barrels of oil, making the index rise slightly. However, the index has fallen below the 60 antenna, the lower track of the box, and the theoretical goal of double headed decline.

On the technical side, the index jumped sharply and opened down, leaving a gap of 66 points. The deal was amplified, and a huge amount of capital flowed out. The index fell below the 60 antenna and the lower track of the box. The MSCD green column is further enlarged, KDJ and RSI continue to descend, and the opening continues to enlarge. The weekly line fell below 120, and the MSCD red column further narrowed. Although the decline is close to 50%, there is still no sign of improvement. If there is no positive stimulus, there is short-term downward inertia.

During the holiday period, the external market rose on the whole, and there was no negative news. On the contrary, the central bank rarely announced the RRR reduction news before the market. However, the stock index futures of the three major indexes in the US stock market fell sharply, and the FTSE China A50 index futures opened half an hour earlier fell sharply, while A-share also jumped down nearly 100 points. Then I checked Baidu and other mainstream financial websites, but there was still no public bad news.

I once said that if there is a big negative, such as a bull market like 6124, it has also dropped more than 900 points in five days due to the continuous decline limit of the mid night cock crowing event on 5.30. Today, all the media did not report any negative news, but the three major index futures of the US stock market all fell sharply, and the FTSE China A50 index futures fell 6.4% at one time, which means that today's sharp fall of A-share is not normal for itself to fall. It's just very helpless. We don't know the reason. Of course, there are some rumors. Since there is no public information, let's not talk about it.

Not only is there no bad news on the surface, but there is also a rare good pre market RRR reduction. In addition, the overall rise of the external market during the holiday, even Baidu can not find any news impact. There is no public bad news, at least indicating that the management is unwilling to see the market go bad.

I once said that the stock market is not absolute. Even if there is a big bull market, if there is a big negative, even if there is a big bull market like 6124, it has dropped more than 900 points in five days due to the continuous drop limit of the mid night cock crowing event on 5.30. I have also said that the higher the accuracy of the trend and the longer it lasts, the greater the probability of error. Because there is no fairy in the stock market, people are bound to make mistakes. The longer you are right, the closer you are to being wrong. Therefore, I have always stressed the control of positions. The only way to deal with the most uncertain stock market is to control positions.

It is a pity that the index did not follow the probability event, or even the small probability event, but walked out of the adjustment wave that was impossible in the early bull market (although the 202 point drop today was completely due to the negative impact, not the market's own laws).

I also said that if you fall below the track, you need to re-examine the market. Whatever the reason for the adjustment wave, the result is the adjustment wave. Is there still a bull market?

Let's take a look at the current market. If we follow the two wave adjustment in the rising wave, then the normal adjustment range is 0618 times. This wave is up 848 points, 0.618 is 5243288-524=2764, and now it is down about 0.5, will there be a rebound first? Pure technology shows no signs. Some people say that if it is C wave adjustment on the way? If this wave of rise is only the rebound wave since 3587, it will be troublesome. It will hit a new low of 2440, that is, on the way to C wave, but there is no need to go through the adjustment wave to see such empty immediately.

As I said before, the reason why I saw the wide range shock is that during the previous rise, there were 13 consecutive weeks of gains, and the transaction of more than one trillion yuan, which is a bull market characteristic only seen in big bull markets. History will not simply repeat, but it must be referential. If it turns out that there is no bull market in the end, it will be more than just a bull market if there are 13 consecutive weeks of rising and more deals over trillion yuan. But so far, at least these characteristics are bull market characteristics, so it is too early to say that there is no bull market. After two waves of adjustment, three waves can still take the main wave. If the bull market is gone, let's put it aside for a while to see the rebound and see if it will reach a new high. Of course, if the bull market is still there, since today's decline is not caused by the market's own trajectory, it is not necessarily a wave of adjustment. It is necessary to make normal adjustments to the 0.618 fold decline. It is also possible to pull up and end the adjustment at any time.

Pay attention to the control of positions in operation, and those with certain positions will not be eager to add positions. I always believe that position control cannot be absolute, and it is irrational to have a full short position. No matter the rise or fall, it is not hard. The position you can easily deal with is your most reasonable position. Of course, except for those who are also suffering from ups and downs, such people should not come to the stock market.

The weekly review is exclusively released on the public account. If you need it, please follow my "Shoushan Kanpan" public account.

Solemnly declare that:

I will never take the initiative to contact strangers to discuss stock related matters. Anyone who takes the initiative to contact you in my name to say that stocks are counterfeit, so don't be fooled.