The analysis of technical indicators is based on certain mathematical theorystatistical method, use some complex calculation formulas to judge the quantitative analysis method of exchange rate trend.MainlyMomentum index、Relative strength index, random index, etc.Since the above analysis often requires the support of certain computer software, investors in personal firm offer trading are only regarded as general knowledge.However, it is worth mentioning that the analysis of technical indicators is internationalforeign exchange marketCareer onForeign exchange traderVery dependent exchange rate analysis andForecasting tools。
KD is developed on the basis of WMS, so KD has some features of WMS.When reflecting the changes of stock market prices, WMS is the fastest, K is the second, and D is the slowest.in useKD indexWe often call K indicator as fast indicator and D indicator as slow indicator.K indicator responds quickly, but is prone to errors, while D indicator responds slowly, but is stable and reliable.
usage method
1. Considering the value of KD, the value above 80 isoverbought Below 20 is an oversold area. If KD exceeds 80, you should consider selling. If KD is below 20, you should consider buying.
2. Considering the intersection of KD indicators, the K above the D is a golden fork. As a buying signal, the golden fork should be at a lower position, which is in the oversold area. The lower the better.The number of cross turns twice is the minimum, the more the better.
3. Deviation considerations of KD indicators
(1) When KD is at a high level and two downward peaks are formed, the shares are still rising at this time. This is called top deviation, and it is a signal of selling.
(2) When KD is at a low level, and the bottom is higher than the bottom, and the stock price continues to fall, this constitutesBottom deviation, is a buying signal.
4. If the value of J index exceeds 100 or is lower than 0, it belongs to the abnormal area of price. If it is greater than 100, it is overbought, and if it is less than 0, it is oversold,J valueThe signal of is unlikely to appear frequently. Once it appears, the reliability is quite high.
Use experience
1. The stock price fluctuates violently in the short term or the instantaneous range is too largeLarge time, usingKD valueIn cross signal trading, the dilemma of buying at a high point and selling at a low point often occurs. At this time, it is necessary to give up the use of KD random indicators and use CCI, ROC, BOLLINGER BANDS... and other indicators.However, if the fluctuation range is large enough, and there is still profit after deducting the handling fee between the purchase and sale, at this time, turn the screen into a five minute or fifteen minute graph, and then buy and sell with KD indicator cross signal, you can still earn a little profit.
2. Extremely strong or weak market will cause the index to wander up and down in the overbought or oversold area, and the K value will also be issued in this case, which should refer to VRROC index, observe whether the share price exceedsNormal distributionOnce the range is determined to be extremely strong or weak, the super buying and selling function of K value will lose its effect.
3. Substituting the value of D for the value of K will make the function of overbought and oversold more effective. In general normal market, when the value of D is greater than 80, the stock price often goes downFall back；When D value is lower than 20, the stock price tends to rise.In the extreme market, when the D value is greater than 90, the stock price is prone to an instant retracement;When D value is lower than 15, the stock price tends to rebound instantaneously.
Calculation formula
1. Generate KD firstImmature random valueRSV。The calculation formula is: N day RSV=[(Ct Ln)/(Hn Ln)] × 100
2. Perform exponential smoothing on RSV to get the following K value: today's K value=2/3 × yesterday's K value+1/3 × today's RSV
In the formula, 1/3 is the smoothing factor, which can be selected manually. However, it has been established by convention and is fixed at 1/3.
3. Perform exponential smoothing on the K value to get the following D value: today's D value=2/3 × yesterday's D value+1/3 × today's K value
In the formula, 1/3 is the smoothing factor, which can be changed to other numbers. It has also been agreed, and 1/3 has also been fixed.
4. When KD is introduced, it is often accompanied by a J index. The calculation formula is: J=3D-2K=D+2 (D-K) It can be seen that J is D plus oneCorrection value。The essence of J is to reflect D and the difference between D and K.In addition, the calculation formula of J index in some books is: J=3K-2D
classification
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There are quite a few indicators for technical analysis, and there are nearly 100 default system indicators, even professional onesanalystSometimes it is easy to confuse.In order to solve this problem,QianlongAccording to the design principle and application principle of indicators, the Windows version analysis system divides all indicators into "big trend", "overbought and oversold", "trend", "energy"“volume"," average line type "," chart type "," stock selection type "," path type ", and" stop loss type ".As long as users know the category of indicators, they almost know the application rules of indicators;Similarly, users only need to understand their own needs (for example, whether to judge the trend or look forOverbought and oversoldRegion), you can easily find the appropriate technical indicators in the corresponding categories.
This classification of technical indicators is also convenient for users to learn, understand and remember the principles of indicators.
Qianlong SoftwareAll types of indicators dedicated to judging the trend of the market are classified into this category. Generally, the trend indicators cannot be used in the individual stock screen (except COPLOCK indicators).
Overbought and oversold
Including: CCI, DRFKDJ、K%R、KAIRI、MFI、MOM、OSC、QIANLONG、ROC、RSI、SLOWKD、VDL、W%R、BIAS、BIAS36Brin limit and limit width.
About one fifth of the indicators belong to this type. They are applied and explained accurately and are quite complex. However, as long as the characteristics of its "antenna" and "ground wire" are mastered, various problems can be easily solved.
Both antenna and ground wireCentral axisParallel, the antenna is located above the central axis and the ground wire is located below the central axis, both of which have the same distance from the central axis.The antenna can be regarded as the indicator pressure or the rising limit in the normal market.The ground wire can be regarded as the index support or the falling limit in the normal market.Here, the normal market refers to the situation in which the ups and downs are seen each other, the trend fluctuation is carried out in the mode of wave theory, and the indicators continue to fluctuate up and down with a fixed range. Continuous sharp rises and falls or instantaneous sharp rises and falls are not normal.
This type of indicator has at least two lines, and the signal of the indicator is the intersection of two lines:
Trend indicatorsThe occurrence of the signal of is generally based on the intersection of the two lines, and you can use it freely if you grasp this key point.
It is a price graph derived from the K line. It judges the buying and selling signals and forecasts through the characteristic forms and combinations of the graphsUps and downs。
Also called pressure support type.The graph can be divided into upper limit zone and lower limit zone. The upper limit represents pressure and the lower limit represents support.Its indicator graphic features are: when the stock price touches the upper limit, it will fall back;The stock price will rebound when it touches the lower limit downward;Different indicators have different meanings.
Stop loss type
Including SAR and VTY.
Such indicators not only have the function of stop loss, but also have the function of reverse trading. Therefore, this indicator cannot be viewed simply in the concept of stop loss, but is a relatively independent one that will generate trading signalstrading system 。
When the stock price rises, the stop loss circle (red) is below the stock price;
When the stock price drops, the stop loss circle (green) is above the stock price;
The closing price breaks through the circle from bottom to top (green) as a buying signal;
The closing price falls below the circle (red) from top to bottomSell signal。
Technical indicators are classified according to the calculation method
There are five prices that can be used for calculation. The opening and closing prices are the highestminimum price, and what is not indicated on the K lineMiddle price。There are countless kindsMathematical methodCan be used except for addition, subtraction, multiplication and divisionFour arithmetic operations, can also be weighted, averagedPowerSquare cutting and calculationlogarithmwait.
The most basic indicator is the average line, which can be averaged using the prices of the previous five days or the prices of the previous ten days.A curved and beautiful curve can be drawn on the K line.According to the calculation method, there are three kinds of averages,Simple moving average。Weighted moving average。Exponentially smoothed moving average。
first kindTrend indicatorsIt can be generated. As long as the exponential smooth moving average of different periods is combined, a line will be drawn on the iconLineThese lines form an image when the market runs unilaterallycrocodileMouth like shape when grown up.This is it.Alligator 。
BOLL band is also based onMoving AverageIf necessary, it also adds the K line slope parameter, and adds or subtracts a price from the average line to form threeBoll 。When prices continue to move, the slope of the K line increasesBell mouthWhen zooming in, there is a certain degree of adjustment when the price touches the three tracks.
Because the calculation method of CCI should be a trend indicator, but because it directly applies negative values to the calculation, it also reflects a certain degree of shock.
The price fluctuation is strong or weak. According to the length of the K line,HatchesHigh and low fluctuation statistics, smartTraderInventedOscillation index。Today's price can be compared with yesterday's price, or with the price of any previous day, to draw a relative conclusion.For example, RSI, KDJ, etc.
RSI translation is calledRelative strength index。It compares today's closing price with the price of the previous day, draws a jump fluctuation line, and then makes a coefficient of the same fluctuation line as the heart rate chartaverage value, you get a relatively smooth curve.This curve fluctuates between 0 and 100 coefficients.According to the observation, it is easy to conclude that 30 and 70 can be used as the starting point for transactions.And draw on the curve of RSItangent, controlK line, we can get the deviation of the market.Or called market divergence.
For example, when the stock price reaches a new high, but the RSI value does not exceed the previous high, there may be deviation, that is, the market is about to reverse.At this time, traders can short when the RSI is below 70.
MACD is actually a trend indicator andOscillation indexCombined products.
Market basedvolumeYou can also count out a classindex, such as BBD, DDE and other domestic products that describe the difference between large orders and small ordersPatent technology。Trading within 24 hoursinternational marketThe turnover is differentexchangeIt is impossible to form statistics when using different currencies
bias The closing price andMoving AverageThe gap between.The greater the positive deviation rate, the greater the short-term profit, thenProfit takingThe higher the possibility of;The greater the negative deviation rate, theShort coveringThe higher the probability of.According to the closing price of individual shares and different daysAverage priceDifferent BIAS lines can be drawn.
Parameter: The system draws three BIAS lines, which are the difference between the closing price and the moving average price of L1, L2, and L3.
DMI Chinese name trend indicator is a very common indicator.Its basic usage is to look at the intersection of+DI and - DI+DI crosses from bottom to top - DI, which is the buy signal+DI downward crossing - DI is the sell signal.If the ADX is below 20, it means that the stock price is in the consolidation period and should leave the market;ADX breaks through 20-30 and climbs upward, with a considerable rise and fall;When the ADX is higher than 50, it suddenly turns down and reverses. Whether it is up or down at this time, it indicates that the market is about to reverse.
Parameter: N statistics days;M interval days are generally 14 and 6.The ADXR line is the mean value of the ADX value on the current day and the ADX value before M day.
EXPMA index smooth moving average
To solveMoving AverageThe problem of backwardness,AnalystAlso seek EXPMAMoving average indexUsed to replace the moving average.EXPMA can immediately adjust its direction with the rapid movement of the stock price, effectively solving the problem of backward signals.When the firstEPMAWhen crossing the second EXPMA from bottom to top, the stock price will be boosted.When the first EXPMA passes through the second EXPMA from bottom to top, it will push down the share price.When the stock price touches EXPMA from bottom to top, it is very easy to suffer from great pressure to reverse.When the stock price touches EXPMA from top to bottom, it is easy to experience a big support rebound.
K valueAround 20, cross upwardsD valueIt is a short-term buying signal.The K value is about 80, and the downward cross D value is short-termSell signal。The K value is higher than the bottom, and at a low level below 50, when the D value is crossed twice from bottom to top, the stock priceIncreaseIt will be larger.When the K value is lower than the top, and at a high level above 50, the D value is crossed twice from top to bottom, the stock priceDeclineIt will be larger.
Parameter: N, M1, M2 days, generally 9, 3, 3.
Usage rules:
1. When D value is above 80, the market is overbought.When D value is below 20, the market is oversold.
2. WhenRandom indexWhen there is a deviation from the stock price, it is generally a signal of turning the trend.
3. When the value of K is greater than the value of D, the current trend is upward; when the value of D is greater than the value of K, the current trend is downward.
4. When the K line breaks through the D line upwards, it is a buy signal, namely KDJkdj 。This buying signal is formed above 70accuracyHigher.
5. On the contrary, if the K line falls below the D line, it is a sell signal, that is, KDJDead fork。Such buying signals have high accuracy when they are formed below 30.
6. The indicator hovers around 50 orWhen crossing, which is of little reference significance.
7. When K and D values rise or fall at a reduced speed,InclinationLeveling down is an early warning signal of short-term trend change.
8. KD is not applicable to stocks with too small issuance and trading volume;But it has extremely high accuracy for the index and popular large stocks.
MACD Exponential Smoothing Similarities and Differences Average
This indicator is mainly used to calculate theDifference value。This indicator can be removedMoving AverageFrequent false signals retain the advantages of moving average.However, due to the low sensitivity of this indicator to price changesMedium long lineTherefore, it is not applicable in the consolidation market.The column line turning from green to red is a buying signal, and turning from red to green is a selling signal.When the MACD curve crosses downward from the top grade twice, the stock price will decline more deeply.When the MACD curve crosses up twice from the low level, the stock price will rise significantly.The high point of stock price is higher than the previous high point, andMACD indicatorWhen the high point of is lower than the previous high point, it indicates that the stock price will reverse and fall.
Parameters: SHORT, LONG, M days, generally 12, 26, 9.
Application rules:
1. DIF and DEA are both positive values, that is, when both are above the zero axis, the general trend isBull marketIf DIF breaks the DEA upward, it can be bought. If DIF falls below the DEA downward, it can only be used as a closing signal.
2. DIF and DEA are both negative, that is, when they are both below the zero axis, the general trend isShort market, DIF falls below DEA and can be sold.
3. When DEALine andWhen the K line trend deviates, it is a reverse signal.
4. DEA inBoardThe error rate is high, but if you cooperate with RSI and KD, you can make up for the shortcomings properly.
5. Analyze MACDColumn Chart, when it changes from positive to negative, it usually indicates to sell, and vice versa, it usually indicates to buy.
ROC change rate
When ROC drops below zero, sell signal;ROC breaks through zero upward, a buying signal.price of stockset a new recordROC did not cooperate with the rise, indicating that the upward momentum was weakened.The stock price hit a new low, ROC did not cooperate with the decline, indicating that the downward momentum was weakened.The share price and ROC rose from the low point at the same time, and the short-term rebound is expected.The share price and ROC both fell from a high point, and they were alert to fall back.
Parameter: N, interval days;M. Calculationmoving average Days of.Generally, 12 and 6 are taken.7.RSIRelative strength index(Relative Strength Index) The short-term RSI is below 20, and the long-term RSI is crossed from bottom to top, which is a buying signal.The short-term RSI is above 80, and the long-term RSI is crossed from top to bottom, which is a sell signal.The stock price is lower and lower, on the contrary, when the RSI is higher and higher, the stock price is easy to reverse and rise.The stock price is higher and higher. On the contrary, when the RSI is lower and lower, the stock price is easy to reverse and fall.The area with RSI below 50 is weak, and the area with RSI above 50 is strong.Breaking through 50 lines from bottom to top means weak to strong, and breaking through 50 lines from top to bottom means strong to weak.It is generally believed that RSI above 50 is more accurate.
Parameters: N1, N2, N3 statistical days, generally 6, 12, 24.
TRIX Triple Indicator Smooth Average
This indicator is aTriple exponential smoothing average, some signals of this indicator can be filtered out during long line operationShort term volatilityTo avoid too frequent transactions, resulting in some unprofitable transactions, andService ChargeHowever, this indicator is not applicable in the consolidation market.When TRIX crosses its MA line upwards, it is a buying signal; when TRIX crosses its MA line downwards, it is a selling signal.There is a view that this indicator may be distorted when judging sales.
If it is lower than 20, it will be overbought, and will peak soon. It should be sold in time.If it is higher than 80, it is oversold and is about to reach the bottom. You should wait for an opportunity to buy.This indicator is related to RSIMTM indexThe effect is better when used together.
Parameter: N statistics days generally take 14 days.
AR is a "potential kinetic energy".becauseOpening priceIt is a mutual understanding of shareholders after a night of calm thinkingReasonable price, then, push upward from the opening price to the current dayMaximum priceBetween, every price will lose one minute of energy.WhenAR valueWhen it rises to a certain limit, it means that the energy has been exhausted. The stock price that lacks the driving force will soon face a reversal crisis.On the contrary, the stock price has notRush upwardIf it is high, it will naturally reduce the loss of energy. Relatively, it will accumulate and preserve a lot of accumulated energy. This invisible potential may burst out at any time when it is ripe.BR is a“Emotional indicators”That is to say, "antiMarket psychology”Based on our position.
ARPopularity index, between 80 and 100, consolidation;Too high, falling back;Too low, rebound.BRWillingness indicator, between 70 and 150, consolidation;If it is higher than 300, shift back;Below 50, bounce.
This indicator is used to judgeTrading opportunity。It can measure the potential of popularity and price momentum;The pressure band and support band are displayed to assist in the deficiency of the BRAR.a. B The area between two wires is called "secondaryseismic belt”When CR wants to cross the sub seismic zone from bottom to top, the stock price will be relatively disturbed by the secondary pressure;When CR wants to penetrate the sub seismic zone from top to bottom, the stock price will encounter secondary support interference.c. D The area between the two lines is called the "main seismic zone". When CR wants to cross the main seismic zone from bottom to top, the stock price will encounter strong pressure interference relatively;When CR runs through the main seismic zone from top to bottom, the stock price will encounter strong support interference.When CR falls below the four lines of a, b, c and d and climbs up 160% from the low point again, it is an opportunity to sell short-term profits.When the CR falls below 40, the chance for the stock price to form a bottom is quite high.When CR is higher than 300~400, the stock price is easy to reverse downward.
Parameter: N The number of days to calculate moving average for M1, M2, and M3, usually 5, 10, and 20.
When the ASI drops below the previous low point, it is a sell signal; when the ASI breaks above the previous high point, it is a buy signal. The price goes from bottom to top, trying to cross the previous high pointLassoDistrict time, near the high point, it is not yet determined whether it can be successfully crossed.If ASI is ahead of the stock price and passes the previous wave of ASI highs relative to the stock price one step earlier, it can be determined that the stock price will break through the high hold zone smoothly after the next day.From top to bottom, when the stock price wants to pass through the dense support area of the previous wave of low points, it is still uncertain whether it will fall below the support due to loss of confidence near the low point.If ASI leads the stock price and falls below the previous ASI low point of the relative stock price one step earlier, then after the next day, it can be determined that the stock price will subsequently fall below the support zone of the price point.When the stock price moves higher and higher, but ASI does not form a "bull deviation" from the new high, it should be sold.When the stock price moves lower and lower, but ASI does not form a "bear deviation" from the new low, you should buy.
BOLL Bollinger Belt
This indicator uses the wave zone to show its safe high and low price levels.The stock price moves within the band of "upper limit" and "lower limit", when the stock priceRise and fall rangeWhen it is increased, the ribbon area will become wider, and when the range of rise and fall is reduced, the ribbon area will become narrower.When crossing the "upper limit" upward, a short-term retracement will be formed, which is the selling opportunity for the short-term.When the stock price goes down through the "lower limit", it will form a short-term rebound, which is a short-term buying opportunity.When the strip area of Bollinger line ishorizontal directionWhen moving, it can be regarded as being in the "normal range". At this time, two methods are used: 1 and 2,ReliabilityQuite high.If the banded area moves to the upper right or lower right, it is out of normal and has special significance.When the wave zone narrowsPrice fluctuationIt may occur at any time.
Parameter: N sets the number of days for statistics, usually 26.P Set the width of the BOLL strip, which is generally 2.
MIKE index
This indicator is a kind of indexFluctuation rangeVariable in sizePressure support indexThe pressure above the stock price is called the "upper limit", and the support below the stock price is called the "lower limit".Between the first "upper limit" and the first "lower limit", we set an imaginary middle line. When the stock price is above the middle line, refer to the "upper limit" pressure value;If the stock price is below the middle line, refer to the "lower limit" support value.When the stock price breaks away from consolidation and moves upward, the three "upper limits" above the stock price are its pressurereference price。 When the stock price breaks away from consolidation and moves towards a downward trend, the three "lower limits" below the stock price are its supporting reference price.During consolidation, if the stock price is higher than the middle line, the "upper limit" price will be selected as the reference basis;If the share price is lower than the middle limit, the "lower limit" price shall be selected as the reference basis.(Attention! In some stock market software, it is displayed in the form of "table", directly transferring the pressure and supportdata displayAnd will indicate that the price level of "upper limit" or "lower limit" should be referred to at this stage.But we think that the figure can better reflect this indicatorChange trend。）
Parameter: N is generally 26.
limitations
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The changes in technical indicators and the buying and selling signals sent are the values reflected in the indicators by the market, and also the changes in the market in advance.If the market does not change, the indicators will not display and send signals.If a buy signal is sent at the moment, and a sell signal may be sent at the next moment, both possibilities exist.Therefore, the changes in technical indicators and the sales signals sent are still arandom process。Therefore, technical indicators reflect the past of the market and predict the possibility of future market trends.
Many technical indicators are prone to passivation and often send out some wrong buying and selling signals.Therefore, many wrong reversal signals in the stock market are caused by the passivation of technical indicators, especially when the stock price deviates from the top or bottom, its sensitivity and reliability are poor.
Each technical index is partial and one-sided.The parameters and variables selected for each indicator are too simple, which can only reflect the local trend of the stock price and cannot truly reflect the stock market'sCapital、Fundamental plane、Technical aspects、PolicyAnd speculation.
There are thousands of known technical indicators, almost all of which are usedMoving AverageThe principle is to use a short-term fast moving average to cross a long-term slow moving average to generate cross signals for buying and sellingPrediction technologyThere is no new idea or breakthrough.The author has made statistics on the dynamic buying and selling of stocks for dozens of technical indicators, and found that all the statistical technical indicators cannot guide investors to invest. The reason is very simple. When they send a buying signal, investors buy stocks,Stock priceThe probability of rising is only 50%, and the probability of falling is 50%.
Technical indicators such asTrend line theoryCombined, it can be calculated that when the stock priceAscending channelWhen the technical indicators send the signal of buying and selling stocks, the probability of stock price rising can be greater than 50%.The probability of stock price rising in the down channel is less than 50%.
Momentum index
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MTM Principle and Calculation
MTM is the difference M between the closing price V of the current day and the closing price VN of the previous N daysM valueWhen connected, it is MTM line MTM calculation formula:
M= V－VN
Here, two fixedtime intervalThe difference between the closing price parameters of includes the concept of speed change.If V>VN continuously, and its difference M is getting larger and larger, it means that the market is accelerating;If V<VN continues, and the difference | M | is getting larger, it means that the market is accelerating to decline.Similarly, the process of deceleration and direction reversal can be seen from the change of M value.This is why the momentum index curve can measure the direction and speed of the market trend.
Application of MTM
1. Generally, N=10.
2. Generally speaking, MTM passing through the 0 axis above is a buying signal, and passing through the 0 axis below is a selling signal.However, if M=0, then V=VN, then the market trend may shift, or rise and then return, or fall and then rise during the N day period.Therefore, the buying and selling signals near the O axis need to be handled carefully, including:
① The adjustment of the MTM of the city road up and down near the 0 axis can be ignored;
②Upward trendReverse, MTM undercrossing axis 0 is the selling signal;
③ The downward trend is reversed, and the MTM goes up through the 0 axis as a buying signal;
④ In the process of rising, MTM undercrossing axis 0 may be a false breakthrough, and the subsequent rising after the end of downshift;
⑤ During the decline, the MTM may be a false breakthrough when it crosses the O axis. After the rebound, it will decline again.
It can be seen that MTM operation should have other indicators to help identify trends.
3. Usually when the market has completed rapid development and started to slow down (but there is no top or bottom),MTM indexHas turned down or up first.Therefore, MTM indicators are ahead of price changes.Experience shows that the lead time is about 3 days.Thus, the inflection point of MTM is the early stage of the price inflection pointWarning signal。
