[Yue Linwei, Special Correspondent of the Global Times in Japan, Yu Wen, Special Correspondent of the Global Times] "This is a battle to determine the fate of the Kishida government" - as described by the Japanese media, it is a minor by election of the House of Representatives, but it has become the "battle of fate" of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Wenxiong. According to Kyodo News Agency, three small constituencies in Japan's House of Representatives held by elections on the 28th. The results of the vote that night showed that the Liberal Democratic Party had lost all its seats and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, had won all the seats. The three by election seats originally belonged to the Liberal Democratic Party, and the loss of all of them would cause a huge blow to the government of Kishida. The Japanese "Daily News" said on the 28th that this by election was positioned as a touchstone to predict the future direction of Prime Minister Kishida. The results show that the gears of the Liberal Democratic Party continue to get out of control, the "last stronghold" of the "conservative kingdom" collapses, and the disastrous defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party makes the path of Prime Minister Akita thorny.
The Liberal Democratic Party was defeated in an all-round way
Kyodo News Agency said that the three constituencies voted on the 28th were 15 districts of Tokyo Metropolitan, 1 district of Shimane Prefecture and 3 districts of Nagasaki Prefecture. In the previous candidate selection stage, the LDP, plagued by the political "black gold" problem, was forced to give up the election of candidates in the two constituencies of Tokyo Metropolitan and Nagasaki Prefecture, and lost without a fight. Only District 1 of Shimane Prefecture became the contention point for candidates of political parties.
It is reported that the by election of District 1 of Shimane County was held due to the death of Hiroshi Hosoda, former Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party. Hiroyuki Hosoda was not only accused of being involved in the "United Church", but also served as the chairman of the Abe faction of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who had a secret funding scandal. Japanese television said that since the implementation of the small electoral district system in 1996, the LDP has never lost its seats in the first district of Shimane Prefecture, but this time the situation is very different. The conservative kingdom is experiencing "abnormal changes" that are not conducive to the LDP. A senior official of the Kishida regime said that the Liberal Democratic Party suffered "double headwinds" of "unified church" and "political black gold incident" in the electoral district.
The final result also confirmed the concern of the Liberal Democratic Party. At about 8:00 p.m. local time on the 28th, the candidate elected by the Constitutional Democratic Party and former congressman Akiko Kamei was confirmed as elected. She said at the celebration: "The election results of Shimane, known as the 'conservative kingdom', will be conveyed to the Anda government. I want you to feel what makes us so angry."
In the 15 districts of Tokyo Metropolitan and 3 districts of Nagasaki Prefecture, the former members of the Liberal Democratic Party withdrew from the Party and resigned because they violated the Public Election Law and withdrew the deduction. The Liberal Democratic Party could not even find suitable candidates and had to give up the competition. The Japanese Jiji News Agency said on the 28th that this by election was the first national political election after the LDP factional bribery scandal broke out. "Politics and money" was the biggest theme, and its results would affect the operation of the Kishida regime. Kyodo News Agency said that the support rate of the Kishida Cabinet has been hovering at a low level of more than 20% for a long time. The overall defeat in this election reflects the strong criticism of the people on the LDP.
Kishida posted on the social platform and flooded in 4000 negative comments within three hours
The Kishida government attaches great importance to this election. According to Kyodo News Agency, in this by election, the "war of words" between the ruling party and the opposition party lasted until the last day of the election. During the election campaign, as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida Wenxiong made two rare trips to the electoral district of Shimane County to support his party's candidates. On the afternoon of the 27th, he appeared in Shimane County for the second time and said to the voters in the street of Songjiang City, "We must make up our mind to change our party". Just five hours ago, he was attending activities in Tokyo. Insiders in the Prime Minister's official residence said, "I didn't expect that the Prime Minister would fly to Shimane immediately after the event".
After the election campaign, Kishida posted pictures and texts on social platform X and posted photos of his speech in the street. The accompanying article said that "for the first time in 30 years, Japan's economy showed signs of positive growth. Wage increases not only appeared in large enterprises, but also expanded to small and medium-sized enterprises, local governments, agriculture, forestry, aquatic products, nursing and other fields". Japan's Yahoo News said that Kishida's post, which seemed to turn a blind eye to rising prices, the historical weakness of the yen and the plight of ordinary people, was responded angrily by netizens. In less than three hours, more than 4000 negative comments poured in, and the comment area was in chaos. Netizens said: "Where is the bright spot?" "The yen is so weak, real wages are falling, and people's savings value is falling every day. What should we do?" "The road ahead is dark." "That will be hell."
Will there be "recall of Andian"
In the history of Japan, it is not uncommon for the change of government triggered by the by election of the House of Representatives. Japanese NHK TV recalled that in April 2021, the then Kan Yiwei regime was defeated in the by election of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Shortly thereafter, Kan Yiwei announced that he would not participate in the LDP president election in September that year. Looking back, in the Yamaguchi District 2 by election of the House of Representatives held in April 2008, the LDP lost to the then Democratic Party, and Fukuda Yasuo's cabinet collapsed in September of that year. However, the report also pointed out that people around Andian told NHK that the situation in all districts of this election was the same, and the election results would not directly affect the operation of the regime.
Previously, a senior member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who did not want to be named told Japanese television that if the LDP failed in the by election, the Kishida regime would not be maintained. Some politicians who once served as ministers said that under the leadership of Kishida, the LDP would not be able to win elections in the future, and "the trend of pulling Kishida down will become increasingly superficial".
Kenichi Kokura, director of Japan's Etmos Research Institute, commented on the evening of the 28th that the change of Japanese regime has gradually become a reality. He believed that the LDP had lost all three wars in the by election of the House of Representatives, which once again highlighted the dissatisfaction of the Japanese people with the political black gold issue. Up to now, the resignation of Takeo Kishida may be inevitable.
However, Japanese television reports also said that many people within the LDP believed that there would be no "removal of Kishida" action in the short term. There are four main reasons. First, the LDP was already at a disadvantage during this election, and its complete defeat was expected. Second, the LDP as a whole is responsible for this result, so there is no room for unrest within the party. Third, Kishida will visit France, Brazil, etc. during the Labor Day holiday, and the opposition party cannot investigate the issue in the Congress or other places. Fourth, the non mainstream view is that the time to "dismiss Awada" is not now, but the LDP president election to be held in September.
But the opposition party is not ready to give up. "Starting from Shimane County, eliminate the old politics and change Japanese politics" became the slogan of some people in the Constitutional Democratic Party. Quan Jiantai, the representative of the party, said on the 28th that the election on the same day foreshadowed the beginning of a political reform. Since the exposure of the LDP black gold scandal, the truth investigation has been slow, the punishment is not serious, and the political reform has been delayed. He will call for the early dissolution of the House of Representatives and the holding of national elections.
Editor in charge: Zhang Di
