Source: Website of the Central Meteorological Observatory
May Northeast China The weather conditions for spring sowing are good. It is better to harvest in sunny weather in the south
I April weather summary
In April, the national average temperature was 13 one ℃, 1 seven ℃ , the highest since 1961 , most of which are in the middle east 2~4 ℃ higher (Fig. 1). The national average precipitation is seventy point six Mm, more than the same period of the year twenty-seven nine millimeter , the most since 1961 ； Most agricultural areas appear twenty-five millimeter above Precipitation, including the southern part of Northeast China, the eastern part of North China East of Northwest China, West of Huanghuai River and Shandong Peninsula 、 Yangtze and Huai rivers and Jianghan Most other places 25 ~ one hundred millimeter ， Jiangnan, South China , East of Southwest China, etc. 100 ~ six hundred millimeter ， More than 600mm in northern Guangdong ， Precipitation in most of the above areas More than the same period of the year three Up to 4 times ； but Hebei South Western Shandong 、 Eastern Henan Southern Sichuan, Yunnan in Department precipitation Less than 10 mm, 30% to 90% less (Figure 2). The national average sunshine hours is 192.9 hours, 21.5 hours less than the same period of the year, of which East Jianghan, South Jianghuai There are few places in Jiangnan and northern South China three ~ five become 5% less in eastern Hunan and western Jiangxi ~ eight become (Figure 3)
chart one National average temperature and air temperature Departure chart（ two 02 four year April 1 day to April three zero day ）
chart two National precipitation and percentage of precipitation anomaly （ two 02 four year April 1 day to April three zero day ）
chart three National sunshine hours and sunshine Deviation percentage diagram （ two 02 four year April 1 day to April three zero day ）
two 、 April Agriculture weather conditions analysis
Most of the Northeast has sufficient heat and suitable moisture, which is conducive to spring ploughing and spring sowing. Temperature in most parts of Northeast China relatively High at the same time of the year two ～ four ℃, warming up and Soil thawing process Faster ； Within month Most agricultural areas have precipitation of more than 10 mm, including Liaoning Most 25 in central Jilin ～ 50 mm, Storage There is plenty of water. Hydrothermal conditions are conducive to dry land crop preparation and sowing ， end of month One crop rice Seeding and seedling raising Basically completed, the seedlings grow well, Corn , potato Wait until the dry land crops start to sow 。
Northern winter wheat region The hydrothermal conditions match well, It is beneficial to the growth and development of winter wheat and the emergence of spring sowing crops. Northern winter wheat region Most of the temperature is 2~4 ℃ higher than that in the same period of the year, The sunshine is the same as that in the same period of the year, The precipitation is 10~50 mm, and most of the soil moisture is suitable, which is conducive to jointing, booting, heading and flowering of winter wheat. but Hebei Within Southern Months The fields with rainfall less than 10mm and insufficient irrigation conditions are slightly short of moisture 。 North China and Most of Northwest Spring Sowing Area Sufficient light and heat during the period The soil moisture is good, which is beneficial to spring corn cotton And other crops Emergence and Seedling growth.
Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China Heavy rainfall and severe convection weather occur repeatedly , early rice transplanting and dryland crop sowing are affected 。 Average temperature in most regions relatively High at the same time of the year 2～4℃ ， The light in Jianghuai, the central and western Jianghan, and the western South China is normal ， The meteorological conditions are generally favorable for grain and oil crops in summer Yield formation and Cotton, corn, etc Seedling emergence and seedling growth of spring sowing crops 。 Jiangnan and Jianghan East The number of precipitation days in rape producing areas is generally 18 ～ 21 days, 2 more than the same period of the year ～ 7 days, local 8 ～ 15 days, 3 days less sunshine ～ eight Cheng, frequent rainy days and scant sunshine lead to Waterlogging of some low-lying farmland , affecting the normal growth of rape roots ； East and south of Jiangnan, South China in east Department Heavy rainfall and severe convection days gas many Hair superimposition , rainfall 30% to 4 times more ， Severe convective weather, such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and hail part Good morning! The paddy field is flooded for a short time 、 Corn Local lodging etc. ， Agricultural facilities such as greenhouses also Damaged 。
There is precipitation in the east of southwest China, The drought in Guizhou and other places has been relieved, It is conducive to the formation of grain and oil crop yield in summer, but Yunnan Central Department Equidistant The drought continued. 50~250mm precipitation occurs in the east of southwest China, which is conducive to increasing soil moisture in farmland and replenishing reservoir water storage ， The drought in western Guizhou has been relieved, yes Winter wheat Yield formation And rape Spring sowing crops are very beneficial to seedling emergence and seedling growth; The sunny weather in the south is favorable for harvesting and drying mature winter wheat and rape; But southern Sichuan and central Yunnan The precipitation is less than 5mm, Agricultural drought continues, and immature winter wheat is fully grouted and spring sown seedling Poor growth.
National crop growth Remote sensing monitoring result indicate ， to April in Ten days ， Growth trend of most crops in China And Same period of year Flat 81% ， Preference 5%, deviation 14%, among Hebei, Shandong Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, etc land And Same period of year Flat or preferred ， South Hunan, Jiangxi, North Guangdong, Northeast Guangxi Equidistant relatively upper year Same period Slightly poor (Fig four ） 。 April In the middle of the year, whole country agriculture crop remote sensing The average growth index is 0 .4 seven ， relatively The same period last year Slightly lower zero 02 , relatively average in recent 5 years slightly High 0 zero one (Fig five ） 。
chart four National agriculture Remote sensing monitoring of crop growth（ two 02 four year April Mid day)
chart five National agriculture do Change of material growth potential index
IV April crop yield trend expectation
1. Winter wheat
By the end of April, North China Huang Huai Most winter wheat is heading bloom stage ； Northwest China and Xinjiang are at the crossroads Heading date; Jianghuai and Jianghan are at the heading and flowering stage , some of them enter the milk ripening stage; Most of the southwest is in milk To maturity stage ， Yunnan Start harvesting ； In most areas, the development period is close to the normal year or 3-8 days earlier.
Since sowing, each production area average The temperature is higher than the same period of the year one . zero ~ one point eight ℃， The accumulated temperature ≥ 0 ℃ is more than the same period of the year two hundred and forty-nine point seven ～ three hundred and forty-five point five ℃ ？ d 。 Northern winter wheat Precipitation in main production area Yes 8 five . one ～ two hundred and forty-one point five five Mm, More than the same period of the year nine . eight % ～ 31.8% ； Precipitation in Jianghuai and Jianghan production areas Are four hundred and twenty-five point two Mm three hundred and forty-seven point three millimeter ， Compared with the normal year many twenty-six %、 twenty-seven point six % ； southwest region Production area Precipitation two hundred and twenty-six millimeter ， Compared with the normal year More 5.7 % 。 Sunshine hours in each production area Most Near the same period of the year , more in southwest China 1 Cheng. In general, the light, temperature and water meteorological conditions are conducive to the growth and development of winter wheat.
Since sowing, The average climate suitability of winter wheat in China is 0.71, which is suitable ， relatively last year The same period is 0 zero 3, ratio Average in recent 5 years high zero zero three 。 Among them, four Monthly national winter wheat average climate The suitability is 0 seventy-two ， YoY 0.02 higher than near 5-year average 0.0 high two ， climate The suitability level is appropriate , of which the first ten days are relatively Suitable, the middle and late ten days are suitable（ chart six ） 。
chart six National winter wheat average Climate suitability change
According to the results of the meteorological prediction model for crop yield, it is estimated that in 2024 Henan Sichuan 、 Xinjiang Gansu 、 Beijing, Tianjin and The average yield per unit area of winter wheat increased by more than 1.5% compared with that of the previous year (the year of increase in yield), and the average yield per unit area of winter wheat in other major production provinces increased or decreased by less than 1.5% (the year of average yield) (Fig seven ）。
chart seven Compared with 2023, the average unit yield of winter wheat in major producing provinces is increasing or decreasing
two . rape
By the end of April, Jianghuai and Jianghan oilseed rape were in the period of flowering to green maturity, and Jiangnan and Southwest China were in the period of green maturity to maturity Sichuan, Chongqing and other places began to harvest ； Most of the development period is normal or 3~8 days earlier 。
Since sowing, National rape All production areas average The temperature is higher than the same period of the year one ~1. seven ℃， The accumulated temperature ≥ 0 ℃ is more than the same period of the year two hundred and fifty-four point two ～ three hundred and ninety point five ℃ ？ d 。 Jianghuai, Jianghan Jiangnan Southwest Precipitation in production area yes four thirty-one point four ～ eight hundred and thirty-one point one millimeter ， Compared with the normal year many eleven point four ~ thirty-five point nine % 。 Production area Most The sunshine hours are close to the same period of the year , more in the southwest two Cheng.
Since sowing, The average climate suitability of rape in China is 0 six two , is appropriate, than last year Same period Low 0.02 ， And Average in recent 5 years Flat 。 Among them, four The average climate suitability of rape in China is 0 fifty-four ， than The same period last year 0.12 low ， than Average in recent 5 years low zero eight , suitability level is relatively suitable , of which the first ten days are no Appropriate, medium Ten days relatively suitable ， lower Ten days is suitable （ chart eight ）。
chart eight whole country Average rape Climate suitability change
According to the results of the meteorological prediction model for crop yield, it is estimated that in 2024 Guizhou, Sichuan The average yield per unit area of rape increased by more than 1.5% over the previous year (the year of increase in yield), Hubei The average yield per unit area of rape decreased by more than 1.5% compared with the previous year (the year of yield reduction), and the average yield increase or decrease of rape in other major provinces was less than 1.5% (the year of average yield) (Fig nine ）。
chart nine Compared with 2023, the average unit yield of rape in major producing provinces is increasing or decreasing
three . Early rice
By the end of April, Jiangnan early rice was in the period from three leaves to transplanting, most of South China was in the tillering stage, and Hainan early rice was in the period from jointing to maturity 。
Since sowing, the average temperature of early rice production areas in Jiangnan and South China is 2.4 ℃ and 2.6 ℃ higher than that of the same period of the year 。 Jiangnan production area precipitation 321.3 mm, 73.0% more than the same period of the year ； Precipitation in South China 392.5 mm , 61.9% more than the same period of the year. The sunshine hours in Jiangnan production area is 65.3 hours, 42.5% less than that in the same period of the year ； The sunshine hours in South China are 161 hours, nearly 13.2% more than that in the same period of the year 。
Since sowing, the national average climate suitability of early rice is 0.79, which is very suitable, 0.04 higher than the same period of the previous year, and 0.05 higher than the average of the past five years. Among them, the average climate suitability of the national early rice in April was 0.79, 0.03 higher than the same period of the previous year, and 0.06 higher than the average in recent five years. The suitability grade was very suitable, including the first ten days of the season and the second ten days of the season (Figure 10) 。
zero whole country Average of early rice Climate suitability change
V May Weather impact estimation and suggestions
It is estimated that in May, the temperature in most agricultural areas in Northeast China will be close to the same period of the year or higher The soil moisture is suitable, which is beneficial to spring corn soybean Seeding, seedling emergence and one crop rice breeding Seedling transplanting; but Liaoning and Jilin large Department High temperature and little rain ， And the wind is strong in spring, The rate of moisture loss is fast, Some regions Possible drought elephant outcrop , need to strengthen prevention 。
Most of the northern winter wheat areas have good water and heat conditions and suitable moisture content, which is conducive to the formation of wheat yield ； but North China, eastern Huanghuai River, etc The temperature is on the high side, appear The risk of dry hot wind is high, and Hebei south There is less precipitation in the local area, and the soil may appear Lack of moisture It is necessary to pay close attention to the change of soil moisture and timely irrigate, and do a good job of "one spray, three prevention" to reduce the impact of dry and hot wind 。 Northwest China More precipitation in the east 2 ~ 50% , in favor of Supplement soil moisture and corn etc. Spring sowing Crop seedling growth , but also Pay attention to arranging wet Reducing waterlogging and controlling diseases and pests at heading and flowering stage of wheat.
The temperature in Jianghuai, Jianghan and the eastern part of southwest China is higher and the precipitation is normal, which is beneficial to Yield formation and mature harvest , also conducive to Seedling growth of spring sowing crops such as corn, cotton and rice ； The rainfall in southern Sichuan and Yunnan is continuously low, and the agricultural drought continues or develops, so it is necessary to actively develop water sources science combat drought, ease The adverse effects of drought on crop growth.
Jiangnan He south China Middle East More precipitation one ~ 50%, The risk of periodic continuous rain is high, Jiangnan Rape harvest Will be affected ， low-lying The risk of farmland waterlogging is high, Heavy rainfall and severe convection are frequent, also It is easy to cause rape lodging, Increase the difficulty of machine harvesting. At the same time, rainy days and scant sunshine are not conducive to the steady growth of early rice seedlings. all places need advance Dredging ditches, Preventing farmland waterlogging Stain disaster ， Jiangnan region Do a good job of agricultural machinery scheduling, avoid precipitation periods, and harvest mature rape 。
chart one one May Focus of agrometeorology
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