Source: China Fertilizer Network
get into In May, The compound fertilizer market has basically ended in the spring, with only partial residual sporadic replenishment demand. The actual transaction price of compound fertilizer at the closing stage is mainly negotiated, and upstream manufacturers are actively promoting the transaction and de stocking. The compound fertilizer market is at a critical stage in summer. The overall performance of both the compound fertilizer market and the downstream demand is more eye-catching than that of the previous period. In fact, compared with the same period of previous years, the progress of fertilizer purchase and sales in this summer is slightly slow. Due to more negative factors, the market of compound fertilizer is not optimistic, and the downstream is more cautious in the early stage of stock preparation.
With the arrival of the peak purchase and sales season, the compound fertilizer market has recovered in summer. By the end of the festival, according to China Fertilizer Network The mainstream ex factory quotation of 40% chloro based high nitrogen fertilizer (such as 28-6-6/30-5-5) is 2030-2250 yuan/ton. Although the gap between high and low prices of high nitrogen fertilizer is still slightly large, the rumors of low prices have begun to decrease recently, and the fluctuation of high-end prices has slowed down. Some voices even indicate that there is an opportunity for the price of compound fertilizer to rise. Considering the current raw materials and supply and demand relationship, the support for the price rise of compound fertilizer is not sufficient, however, the price will not fall down in the short term, It is more likely to become more stable and less dynamic.
First of all, changes in raw material market narrowed. The market of compound fertilizer is stabilizing, mainly because the fluctuation of raw material cost is relatively limited, among which urea Prices rise and fall. When the downstream market just needs to appear, the urea market tends to remain relatively strong, otherwise it may be slightly depressed, but the recent rise and fall is still expected; Ammonium chloride factory is cautious in price adjustment, some quotations are slightly raised, and there is another enterprise plan A new price was introduced in May; The market of monoammonium has not changed much, the price shows a weak and stable trend, and the actual transaction of new orders is general; The price of potassium chloride is high and firm, and it is difficult to rise or fall in the future market. Therefore, the narrow rise and fall of raw material price has little impact on the production cost of compound fertilizer.
Secondly, downstream demand is released centrally. since Since the middle of April, the demand for fertilizer in summer in the terminal market has gradually increased, especially high nitrogen Corn The demand for fertilizer and the buying and selling atmosphere in North China and East China have obviously warmed up, because first, the market of compound fertilizer is better than expected, at least the price has not continued to fall, and it is more and more stable to see that the willingness of downstream to pay for and pick up goods has increased; The second reason is that the season is approaching, the terminal wholesale and retail links have been started, and the number of inquiries has increased. Due to the slow picking up activities of dealers in the early stage, the demand activities are relatively concentrated, but the actual space for replenishment is still unclear. It remains to be seen how much support will be given to the future market.
Finally, the upstream factory expedited shipment. There is a short gap in demand in spring and summer, and the fertilizer market is still in a stalemate in summer. Until recently, there was a buying and selling atmosphere in the peak season. However, the downstream dealers delayed the time of picking up the goods, which caused the factory to backlog a lot of early orders. At one time, the delivery was not only accelerated suddenly, but also the local supply was slightly tight. In addition, the sales price of the terminal market gradually surfaced, Nowadays, compound fertilizer factories generally aim at stable price shipment; In addition, if the ex factory quotation is easily adjusted, it may affect the follow-up of new orders. Therefore, some compound fertilizer enterprises said that they would make decisions after the May Day holiday depending on the situation.
To sum up, the price of compound fertilizer is not likely to rise or fall sharply, but tends to be stable in the short term. In the long term, it needs to be judged by combining the raw material market and supply and demand. book If there is any part of the online analysis and market data that you want to know more about, you can call the hotline 0451-88001128。 For more information on fertilizer market, please keep an eye on the official website of China Fertilizer Network (www.fert.cn) and mobile phone A PP (www.fert. cn/app), WeChat public platform (fert cn), one-on-one communication with analysts, wonderful content can't be missed! (Zhongfei Network Author Feng Hongyang /Checked by Che Yanhong)
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