Source: Latest quotation of egg price
April 20 To the 21st, the 2024 China Agriculture Outlook Conference was held in Beijing under the guidance of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and hosted by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
With the theme of "strengthening the monitoring and early warning of the whole industrial chain and developing new agricultural productivity", the conference released the China Agriculture Outlook Report (2024-2033), which focuses on 20 major types of food in the next 10 years agriculture products Production, consumption, trade and price trends are predicted.
From April 20 to 21, the 2024 China Agriculture Outlook Conference was held in Beijing. Courtesy of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences The Report shows that, In the next 10 years, the output and consumption of meat will keep growing, and the import will increase first and then decrease ； Pork output showed a steady decline trend, and the import volume decreased; Poultry production and consumption continued to increase, and self-sufficiency rate steadily increased; The production and consumption of beef and mutton kept growing, while the growth rate of imports slowed down; Egg production growth slowed down; Export continued to grow; The output of dairy products continued to grow and the consumption gradually increased.
Meat: Overall, output and consumption maintained growth, while imports increased first and then decreased
In the outlook period, with the optimization and adjustment of pig production capacity, the basic production capacity of beef and mutton will be stable Stable development of meat production The supply guarantee capacity of meat products has been strengthened The meat output will increase in general 。 It is estimated that the meat output will reach 9764 in 2033 10000 tons, with an average annual growth of 0.4%. The demand of the meat market has been released steadily, and the consumption of meat has kept growing, It will reach 102.53 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 0.3%. With the improvement of residents' income and living standards, the diet structure of residents will be gradually optimized, and the market share of poultry, beef and mutton will increase.
At the beginning of the outlook, considering that the price difference of beef and mutton at home and abroad is still obvious, Small increase in beef and mutton imports It is estimated that the meat import volume in 2024 will be 6.06 million tons, a slight increase of 0.5% over the previous year; Looking forward to the middle and later period, with the gradual improvement of domestic meat product supply security level, The self-sufficiency rate will be steadily increased, and the import volume will be slightly reduced in a steady manner It is estimated that the import volume will be 5.84 million tons in 2033, with an average annual decrease of 1.4%.
Pork: the output shows a steady downward trend, and the import volume decreases
In the outlook period, The proportion of large-scale pig breeding has gradually increased, the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, and the quality and efficiency of pork production have been improved, The overall output declined and stabilized at about 54 million tons. It is estimated that the pork output will be 53.86 million tons in 2033, with an average annual decrease of 0.3%. Influenced by the aging population and the upgrading of residents' consumption, The total consumption of pork will decline in the outlook period 。 It is estimated that the pork consumption will decrease to 54.79 million tons in 2033, 5.0% less than the base period, and 0.5% less annually.
The overall decline of domestic pork consumption demand Decrease in pork import demand However, residents still have a rigid demand for pork with bones, and there will still be a certain amount of pork imports. It is estimated that 1.07 million tons of pork will be imported in 2033.
Poultry meat: production and consumption continued to increase, and self-sufficiency rate steadily increased
In the next 10 years, the poultry production structure will continue to be optimized, and the market share of domestic high-quality varieties will continue to increase, Steady growth of poultry meat production It is estimated that the output will reach 29.05 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 1.7%. With the continuous improvement of urbanization, the consumption habits of the new generation have changed, and the market scale of meat and poultry prefabricated dishes has expanded, Poultry consumption continues to increase , the proportion of meat consumption has significantly increased, and the consumption is expected to be 29.32 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 1.5%.
The growth rate of poultry production is faster than that of consumption, and the import demand is gradually decreasing The proportion of poultry imports in domestic consumption is generally declining. It is estimated that the import volume will be 1.05 million tons in 2033, with an average annual decrease of 2.6%. The production efficiency of meat and poultry has improved, and the international competitiveness of products has gradually increased, Poultry exports grew steadily It is estimated that the export volume in 2033 will be 780000 tons, with an average annual growth of 2.5%.
Eggs: Output growth slows down and exports continue to grow
In the next 10 years, as high-yield varieties, precision feeding, environmental control, epidemic prevention and control and other modern equipment and technologies are widely promoted and applied, the level of improved varieties, scale and mechanization of egg poultry breeding is constantly improved, and the domestic breeding pattern with high production efficiency, resource conservation, environmental friendliness and reasonable layout is gradually established, Egg production capacity continues to increase , the output increased steadily It is expected to reach 37.16 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 0.7%.
With the increase of people's requirements for reasonable diet and balanced nutrition, the space for per capita consumption of eggs to increase gradually narrows, Egg consumption growth will slow down It is estimated that the consumption of poultry eggs will reach 36.75 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 0.6%. The export volume of poultry eggs is expected to keep growing, It is estimated that the export volume will be 240000 tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 5.8%.
Beef and mutton: production and consumption keep growing, while import growth slows down
In the next 10 years, with the improvement of cattle and sheep production technology and the improvement of improved varieties, scale, standardization and intelligence, The production and supply capacity will be enhanced, and the output of beef and mutton will keep growing 。 It is estimated that the output of beef and mutton will be 7.98 million tons and 5.87 million tons respectively in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0% and 1.2% respectively. Considering the multiple impacts of the upgrading of meat consumption structure in the future, the promotion of new urbanization and negative population growth, The growth of consumption demand for beef and mutton will slow down 。
It is estimated that the consumption of beef and mutton in 2033 will be 11.1 million tons and 6.46 million tons respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2% and 1.4% respectively; The annual per capita consumption of beef and mutton reached 7.97kg and 4.64kg respectively. With the increase of self-sufficiency of beef and mutton, the dependence on foreign countries has decreased, and the growth rate of imports has slowed down. It is estimated that beef and mutton imports will be 3.12 million tons and 590000 tons respectively in 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9% and 4.0% respectively.
Soybeans: The unit yield and output have increased year by year, Significant increase in self-sufficiency rate
In the next 10 years, with the in-depth promotion of the national soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement project, The yield per unit area has significantly increased, and the output has steadily increased It is estimated that the soybean planting area will increase to 184.47 million mu (12.3 million hectares), the unit yield will increase to 193 kg/mu (2901 kg/hectare), and the yield will reach 35.68 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 2.4%, 3.9%, and 6.4% respectively. Due to the increase of soybean consumption and the high demand for feed, Soybean consumption slightly increased steadily It is expected to reach 113.29 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 0.3%.
With the continuous improvement of domestic soybean production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of soybean will continue to increase, Imports show a high decline trend At the end of the forecast period, the self-sufficiency rate of soybean will increase to more than 30%, and the import volume will decrease to 78.69 million tons, with an average annual decline of 1.9%.
Corn: The output continues to grow, The import volume shows a downward trend
In the next 10 years, The sown area of maize remained stable , which is expected to be 663.66 million mu (44.24 million hectares) in 2033; With the continuous improvement of agricultural infrastructure, the integrated promotion of good farmland, good varieties, good laws, good opportunities and good systems, It is expected that the yield per unit area will continue to increase 。 At the end of the forecast period, it will reach 486 kg/mu, with an average annual growth of 1.3%; The output will grow steadily to 323 million tons, with an average annual growth of 1.4%. Corn consumption increased steadily It is estimated that the consumption will reach 321 million tons in 2033, with an average annual growth of 1.1%. The import volume continues to decline ， It is expected to be reduced to 6.8 million tons in 2033.
Feed: The output grows slowly, Gradual adjustment of consumption structure
In the next 10 years, the feed industry will gradually enter a mature development period. Driven by the development of large-scale, standardized and intelligent breeding, the popularity of industrial feed will continue to increase, Feed output will keep growing, but the growth rate will slow down 。 It is estimated that the feed output will reach 336 million tons in 2033, with an average annual increase 1.0% long. The total population is gradually decreasing, the aging process is accelerating, the quantitative structure of animal food consumption is facing adjustment, and the industrial feed consumption structure will change accordingly, Overall consumption increased slightly 。
In 2033, the industrial feed consumption will be 334 million tons, with an average annual growth of 1.0%. In the outlook period, The import sources of feed grain and feed protein raw materials are more diversified, and the supply of feed raw materials is more guaranteed, Fluctuation of feed price will be weakened 。
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