Investment tips for the current period:
1、 The reason for the short-term adjustment: the high point of the catalytic density of the real estate policy is also the periodic high point of the expected fermentation of improving domestic demand. The high cut low market since late April has come to an end. The profit making effect of the market has spread to a high level in the early stage, and there is a lack of new offensive direction in the short term, so it is reasonable that the profit making effect shrinks.
The driving force affecting the strength of the short-term market is the policy catalytic density. Last Friday, the real estate bottom covering policy ushered in a phased peak of catalytic density, which corresponded to the fact that the real estate policy entered the effect observation period, and also corresponded to the peak of the expected fermentation of domestic demand improvement. The real estate chain and domestic demand cycle repair came to an end. At the same time, the direction of relatively high short-term performance price ratio is scientific and technological growth, and the continuation of the "high and low cut" market in the short term may require scientific and technological growth relay. However, two rebound opportunities have been missed in the short term. One is the upward revision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation in the early stage, and the other is that Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations in the short term. This reflects that overseas catalysis has limited boosting effect on domestic scientific and technological growth, and needs to wait for domestic AI application end industry catalysis. The rebound in science and technology was weak, and the high cut low market since late April came to an end. The profit making effect of the market has spread to a high level in the early stage, and there is a lack of new offensive direction in the short term, so it is reasonable that the profit making effect shrinks. At present, the price performance ratio of the market has only fallen back to near the middle, and the band is still adjusted in the short term.
2、 The judgment that should be adhered to during the adjustment period: there is no major downward risk in the market, which is still the benchmark judgment. The export chain, consumption, and cycle are all Alpha strong, and Beta improvement is difficult to sustain. The macro environment conducive to the dominance of high dividend assets did not change fundamentally in the first quarter, and the judgment that broad high dividend investment was the main line of the year remained unchanged.
We suggest three points: 1 There is no major downside risk in the market, which is still the benchmark judgment. Before July, the market's expectation of policies will still effectively support risk appetite. 2. The pattern of "overall market resilience is better than expected, and structural sustainability is weaker than expected" remains unchanged. The export chain, consumption, and cycle are all Alpha strong, and Beta improvement is difficult to sustain. The new main line is not easy to appear, and the upward space of the medium-term market is also limited, maintaining the judgment of a volatile market. 3. The economy improved in the second quarter, but there is still doubt whether it can continue to improve in the third quarter, and the medium-term trend of risk-free interest rate downward has not ended. The macro environment conducive to the dominance of high dividend assets did not change fundamentally in the first quarter. Continue to be optimistic about broad high dividend investment as the main line of the year.
3、 After the correction, the direction that is more worthy of bargain hunting is still broad and high dividends, and continue to recommend electricity, household appliances and liquor, coal, oil and nonferrous metals. Overseas catalysis has played a limited role in boosting A-share technology stocks, and reiterated that the condition for an effective rebound in technology is domestic industry catalysis. There is a high probability that the real estate policy will be adopted later, and the real estate stocks will be allocated after the short-term price performance ratio is improved.
Think about the direction worth focusing on after the callback: 1 The broad high dividend is the main line of the whole year and the first Alpha direction selected by the market in 2024. Electricity, household appliances and liquor, coal, petroleum and nonferrous metals are still the key directions in the medium term. Short term adjustment is an opportunity for layout. 2. Allocation of high cost performance direction shareholding to be increased is the dominant strategy in the volatile market. Continue to remind that technology is the direction of short-term high cost performance. In the market adjustment stage, the price performance of the sector continues to improve. The development of domestic AI industry is "people have what I have". The progress of large models and the catalysis of the application of blockbusters are mainly a matter of time. At the stage when the cost performance ratio is enough to cover the time cost, it is still worth actively configuring. 3. The catalytic density of the real estate policy has been reduced. During the adjustment period of the real estate stock real estate chain, there is a great probability that there will be future moves in the real estate policy. After the short-term performance price ratio has improved, the real estate stock is also worth bargain hunting configuration, waiting for the cumulative effect of the follow-up policy, quantitative change to qualitative change.
In terms of Hong Kong shares, foreign capital and domestic capital from the south participated in the revaluation of Hong Kong shares in the early stage. The trend attribute of marginal trading funds is strong, and the protection of allocation funds is weak, which determines that Hong Kong stocks will be characterized by high beta in the short term, with greater elasticity in the rising phase and faster speed in the adjustment phase. We suggest that the high dividend of Hong Kong stocks and the Internet callback are also worth bargain hunting.
Risk tip: overseas economic recession exceeded expectations, and domestic economic recovery was less than expected
