[Next week's strategy]
Review of this week's trend
This week, the index rose and fell, and the Shanghai index fell to 3100 points. At the beginning of the week, the index strengthened in shock, and the Shanghai index hit a new high in the year again, but the rising trend failed to extend to this Friday. The index then fell in shock, and finally the Shanghai index lost 3100 points, and the three major indexes fell more than 2% on the weekly K line. From the weekly K line, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 2.07%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 2.93%, the GEM Index fell 2.49%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 3.61%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 0.80%. Individual stocks generally fell, coal, public utilities and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors closed higher, while automobile, building materials, comprehensive, real estate and light industry manufacturing sectors were among the top losers.
Next week's general trend research and judgment: shock consolidation
From the market this week:
First of all, the policy of optimizing and adjusting the property market has been accelerated, the pace of issuing national debt has been accelerated, and the foundation for economic recovery has been consolidated.
Secondly, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates fell back, and the urgency of cutting interest rates continued to decline.
Finally, the LPR interest rate remained unchanged in May, and the capital was stable and abundant.
On the whole, the index rose and fell this week, and the Shanghai Stock Index lost 3100 points, ending the fifth consecutive positive week on the K line. From the perspective of market environment, the current policy of optimizing and adjusting the property market has been accelerated, the pace of issuing national debt has been accelerated, and the foundation for economic recovery has been consolidated. However, there is still a "temperature difference" between macro and micro, and more demand side policies are expected to be introduced in succession to promote the steady recovery of the economy. In addition, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates fell back, and the urgency of cutting interest rates continued to decline. On the whole, however, the spillover of monetary policy in developed economies will develop in the direction of reducing pressure. The cyclical difference of monetary policy between China and the United States is converging, which is objectively conducive to enhancing the autonomy of China's monetary policy operation and expanding the space for monetary policy operation. On the capital side, the current medium and long-term market interest rates are still operating below the policy interest rates, and liquidity is still stable and abundant. From a technical perspective, the index rose and fell this week, and the Shanghai Stock Index fell to 3100 points, ending the pattern of five consecutive positive days on the weekly K line. The market's earning effect was general. In the future, the implementation of short-term real estate stabilization policy has strengthened the market's expectations for the economy and policies. Factors such as accelerating the pace of bond issuance, driving the continuous repair of physical workload, will support the recovery of investors' risk appetite. The market is expected to usher in an upward pattern of shocks after the consolidation of shocks, and focus on the changes in volume and capacity of the two cities and the flow of funds northward.
Operation suggestions:
It is suggested to focus on banking, coal, utilities, building decoration, food and beverage and other sectors.
Risk warning:
The overseas economy declined more than expected, and the Sino US trade friction worsened more than expected, leading to the fall in foreign demand and the pressure on domestic exports; The major economies in the world have extended the interest rate increase cycle beyond expectations. The high interest rate environment has significantly slowed the global economic growth and reduced the domestic capital; Overseas credit contraction triggered risk events, which impacted market liquidity and interfered with interest rate and exchange rate movements.
