Key investment points:
Top Down: Pay attention to the signal of foreign capital inflow, and strive for success in a stable and volatile pattern.
Consumption: 1) After the panic of "consumption downgrade", the cost performance ratio became prominent, and the tendency of high dividend distribution may help the industry benchmark overseas valuation. 2) At the end of April, the northward capital inflow reached 33.3 billion yuan in two days, and attention was paid to the "core assets" preferred by foreign capital. 3) Inflation recovered moderately. At the end of April, CPI hit a new high in nearly 13 months, and was higher than last year's 0.2%.
Medicine: 1) 24Q1 institutional positions returned to low allocation, industry chips were cleared, and the structure was improved. 2) The north direction continues to flow in, and the pharmaceutical assets at a low level or the preference to benefit from foreign investment. 3) Medical anti-corruption awareness is expected to improve (the Commission for Discipline Inspection issued a document in July 23, nearly a year ago). 4) The innovation policy document was issued or entered an outbreak period.
Dianxin: 1) In historical experience, foreign investors obviously prefer core assets such as consumption, Dianxin and medicine, especially the leading stocks. 2) The market has, or even over reflected, the pessimistic expectations of the industry: the United States has imposed additional tariffs on China's new energy, but the amount of tax increases is small, more for political purposes; The PV Industry Association clearly proposed to combat malicious competition, encourage mergers and reorganization, and speed up the clearing of industrial capacity. 3) Vehicles are the focus of this round of "old for new" action, and new energy vehicles have benefited significantly.
Non ferrous metals: 1) Historical experience shows that the copper gold ratio is strongly related to the trend of global manufacturing PMI. Not only China, but also the United States and India, which reflect marginal demand, continue to expand their manufacturing PMI. 2) The decline of US inflation boosted the expectation of interest rate reduction, and the price of precious metals is expected to continue to rise. 3) Overseas interest rate cuts are expected to rise. With the domestic central bank supporting the real estate industry, confidence will be boosted. Industrial metal prices are expected to continue to rise.
Coal: 1) Looking at currency in the long run, overseas interest rate cuts are expected to increase, which may open space for domestic interest rate cuts later. 2) In the medium term, the long-term production capacity pattern of coal is tight, emphasizing the role of "supply guarantee" and "bottom covering" in energy supply. 3) In the short term, the power plant will supplement the steam coal in summer when the peak load comes; The steel plant replenishes coking coal (31% of the quantile level and increases for 5 consecutive weeks), and with the improvement of the profits of the steel plant, the steel output is expected to continue to recover, bringing demand.
Bank: 1) The "core assets" have both fundamental advantages and high dividends, and are more resilient in volatile markets. 2) The real estate policy turns clearly, and the stock banks may benefit in the short term under the market sentiment; Looking at the fundamentals, Dahang, a high-quality urban agricultural commercial bank with high dividends in the medium and long-term perspective, still dominates.
Prosperity perspective: the major categories of manufacturing and consumption are dominant, and the real estate subdivision is bottoming out. 1) Upstream raw materials: the chemical industry chain is booming, and the real estate chain is partially warming up. 2) Middle stream manufacturing: military industry and electronics are in the ascendant, and the automobile chain is beginning to differentiate.
3) Downstream consumption: IT, beauty care and liquor are prosperous, and the education industry is rehabilitated. 4) Financial real estate&public service: real estate and environmental protection are dominant, while banking and transportation are declining.
Risk tips: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; Second, the macro-economy is not as expected; Third, the overseas market fluctuated significantly.
