On Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes showed a trend of unilateral shock and fall. Several major stock indexes opened low and went down level by level. There was no counter attack from many parties. The concept of aerospace military industry and electromagnetic shielding was slightly active throughout the day, but the early theme hotspots fell as a whole, and the market's short selling power increased significantly. In addition to the slightly resistant performance of shipbuilding, aerospace and military industry, and electromagnetic shielding concepts, the other hot spots in the sector experienced declines in varying degrees, with precious metals, nonferrous resources, and real estate services among the top performers. In the end, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets closed down by more than 1%. The trading volume of the two markets increased slightly by 0.84 trillion throughout the day, and the market activity was still low.
The spokesman of the Eastern Theater said that from May 23 to 24, the PLA Eastern Theater organized troops from the army, navy, air force, rocket corps and other forces in the theater to carry out the "Joint Sword 2024A" exercise around Bitai Island, focusing on the exercises of joint air and sea combat readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive control of the battlefield, joint strike of key targets and other subjects, as well as the warship aircraft patrol around the island, The island chain is integrated inside and outside to test the joint combat capability of the theater forces. This is also a strong punishment for the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces seeking "independence" and a serious warning of interference and provocation by external forces. Affected by the news, the market was worried about the situation in the Taiwan Strait and expected to rise, and the related aerospace and military industry sectors showed active changes. However, the impulse performance market of this week's topic hot spots had limited willingness to follow. In the atmosphere of general callback in the peripheral markets, A-share finally followed the trend of shock adjustment. In the recent period, the warm wind is blowing frequently in the policy area. The central bank, the securities regulatory commission and other departments continue to speak out and introduce relevant measures, implement the deployment requirements of the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China, and strive to stabilize the market and confidence. The measures targeted at the illegal acts of malicious short selling in the market, strengthened market supervision to strictly control the quality and financial situation of listed companies, increased the counter cyclical adjustment of margin trading and other businesses according to the market situation, and implemented the investor oriented supervision and management concept in the New National Ninth Article, effectively reducing the short selling power of the market, The earlier collapse of investors was effectively alleviated. We clearly pointed out that in order to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, the management has continuously launched relevant policies and measures, which effectively sent a positive signal to the market that the management is active in the capital market. Under the background of constantly releasing and boosting the economy and maintaining a stable market, the market policy has been basically established, However, as the stock index fell before the Spring Festival holiday and hit new lows in the year, investors lost confidence. Since the Spring Festival, there has been a wave of retaliatory rise in the stock index and recovered the lost ground at the beginning of the year, and investors' confidence has begun to recover gradually. The escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine tends to be long-term, the geopolitical situation between the peninsula and the South China Sea continues to deteriorate, the tension in the Middle East and the Red Sea caused by the spillover of the escalation of the Palestinian Israeli conflict is still in danger, and the market uncertainties have increased and had a great impact on the capital market. The United States regards China as the main target of competition and wantonly suppresses defamation, and works with its allies to politicize economic, trade and scientific and technological issues and constantly create unilateral sanctions. The spiral of conflicts between China and the United States is escalating; A series of restriction policies in Europe and the United States have seriously disrupted the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. The tide of global de dollarization is rising day by day, and the economic situation is becoming severe and complex.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the recent data did not bring greater confidence to the market. On the contrary, it may take longer than expected to gain confidence. If the inflation rate continues to be higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, the Federal Reserve may maintain the interest rate at the current level for a longer period of time, At the same time, he also said that the existing policies are ready to deal with the risks we are facing. Given the current progress in the employment market and inflation, it is appropriate to allow more time for restrictive policies to play their roles. This statement shows that the delay of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut within the year is almost a high probability event. After Fitch downgraded the credit rating of the United States last August, Moody's Investors Service, an international rating agency, also downgraded the rating outlook of the United States from "stable" to "negative". The scale of U.S. government bonds continued to rise, indicating that the U.S. economy still faces many challenges and bank liquidity threats in the future. The global economy is facing downward pressure. European worries about future economic stagflation and recession are expected to rise. The probability of interest rate reduction in the United States is expected to rise in the second half of the year. The U.S. debt market is experiencing severe shocks. The amplitude of the U.S. dollar has increased. The exchange rate of non U.S. currencies against the U.S. dollar has increased. The gold price has rebounded strongly and hit a new record high. After that, the volatility has increased. The international crude oil price has fluctuated and extended to the price of bulk raw materials. In the context of the registration system, the value of shell resources has declined, but the willingness of the industrial capital to reduce its holdings and leave the market has not decreased. Although the management actively encourages and guides the medium and long-term capital to enter the market, compared with the large-scale and continuous water release in the overseas market in the past few years, the sound policy of the domestic market is difficult to effectively and continuously stimulate the market's confidence to do more, and the southward capital continues to flow out of the A-share market, The domestic market capital has always been in a state of obvious imbalance between supply and demand. The lack of effective incremental funds in the market is basically dominated by the mutual game of stock funds. Therefore, the market is more characterized by a structural market characterized by plate rotation.
From a technical perspective, at the beginning of the new year, the stock index accelerated its downward shock, several major indexes continued to decline and hit new lows in the year, and market confidence was severely hit; Before the Spring Festival, under the influence of favorable policies, the stock index showed a retaliatory rise after a quick bottoming out. The stock index continued to rise and recovered its lost ground during the year. The trading volume also showed a good momentum of increasing day by day. Among them, the sharp rise of the entrepreneurship and innovation index played an obvious role in boosting and stabilizing market sentiment. Before the May Day holiday, the stock market broke through the consolidation platform, and the trading volume also synchronously increased to the trillion level. The market's power to do more began to strengthen, in which the weight plate played an important role, and the market's confidence in doing more rose; Last week, the stock index first fell and then rose. After making up the weekly gap after the holiday, many parties started a new round of upward attack with the help of the real estate sector. The overall performance is still strong, but the only problem is that the trading volume is always below one trillion yuan. This week, the stock index was blocked from soaring. Since Tuesday, the stock index has shown a gradual fluctuation and decline trend. The trading volume has rapidly declined, reflecting that after the last week's rally, the energy of many parties has been consumed, and both the long and short sides have begun to enter the conversion phase of the energy of attack and defense. On Thursday, the air side focused on releasing the energy of the stock index and fell below the short-term moving average to test the support role of the dividing line between the long and short again. In view of the continuous shock and fall of the stock index in recent days, in particular, although the stock index fell a lot on Thursday, the number of limit falls of individual stocks was only 10, indicating that the continuous release of short selling power of the short side has entered the end stage, so both the long and short sides may face a fierce attack and defense competition. It is expected that the wide range shock of the stock index in the short term will be unavoidable, and close attention will be paid to the trend of trading volume and popularity index, Grasp the market rhythm, sell high and absorb low, and strictly control the operation of selecting individual stocks.
