Chief securities internal reference
On May 23, the market fell in general, with the Shanghai Stock Index approaching 3100 points by more than 1%. More than 4500 shares in the three markets closed lower, with more than 850 billion transactions.
In terms of hot spots, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, small metals and other resource sectors led the sharp decline, while education, tourism and other sectors also led the decline. The concept of new theme electromagnetic shielding materials rose sharply against the market, the military industry chain rose generally, and concepts such as AIPC and flying cars also rose against the market.
There are two triggers for the general decline of the market: first, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal, and bulk commodities such as gold, silver and copper plunged together, dragging down the whole resource sector of A-share; Second, the news of the military exercises in the eastern war zone triggered concerns about the rising geopolitical situation and affected the market sentiment.
The above two negative factors are short-term disturbances: the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been repeated, leading to fluctuations in the global financial market, but the general direction of the interest rate cut remains unchanged, and the variable is when to start to cut interest rates; As for the geopolitical situation, at present, it is likely that the rate will not deteriorate further.
In the short term, the Shanghai Index has come to the lower edge of the 3100-3200 point range shock. Referring to the trend of the range shock in recent months, the Shanghai Index may hit the bottom near 3100.
In the medium term, the market is in a relatively balanced state of internal and external games: external factors are negative (monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, China US relations, geopolitical situation, etc.), and internal factors are positive (policy is constantly positive, the economy is recovering, etc.). Due to the interweaving of long and short, the willingness of funds to enter the market is relatively limited, leading to fluctuations in the index range. If the market wants to make further breakthroughs, it may need to wait for further verification of economic data to boost investor confidence and attract more funds!
In terms of configuration, focus on the concept of China Japan South Korea cooperation. The ninth China Japan ROK Leaders' Meeting will be held in Seoul, South Korea, from May 26 to 27, which will be the first summit meeting between China, Japan and the ROK in more than four years. China has been the largest trading partner of Japan and South Korea for many years, and Japan and South Korea are among the top four trading partners of China all the year round. It is expected that the negotiation of the China Japan ROK Free Trade Agreement may restart, which will directly benefit the relevant concepts of China Japan ROK cooperation.
