Future prospects:
On Thursday, the market opened lower and moved lower all day, with three major indexes all falling more than 1%. The three major indexes opened at a collective low opening, with the Shanghai Index opening at a low opening of 0.27%, the Shenzhen Composite Index falling 0.27%, and the GEM Index opening at a low opening of 0.07%. Subsequently, the market experienced shock adjustment, and the three major indexes all fell by more than 1%. By the end of the afternoon trading, the three major indexes had all fallen, and the GEM index fell slightly, but the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 index rose more than 3% against the trend, and only one stock of all the Beijing Stock Exchange fell. On the market side, the military industry shares became stronger after shocks; Electromagnetic shielding concept stocks rose collectively; AI and PC concept stocks continued to be active. In the afternoon, the market declined more and the three major indexes ended lower. In terms of individual stocks, none of the Shenyi class stocks recorded gains, and more than 4500 stocks in the whole market fell, while nonferrous metals, social services, media and other sectors showed weak performance.
It is worth noting that the National Development and Reform Commission, the Central Bank and other four departments issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Key Work of Cost Reduction in 2024, which pointed out that it is necessary to promote the loan interest rate to achieve steady and moderate decline. At the same time, we will optimize tax and fee preferential policies to ensure that structural tax and fee reduction policies such as pre tax addition and deduction of R&D expenses and tax reduction and exemption of scientific and technological achievements transformation are effectively implemented, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the sustainable development of manufacturing industry, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation, and appropriately reduce import tariffs on advanced technological equipment and resources.
In addition, the Director of the Comprehensive Business Department of the CSRC said that it was necessary to improve the multi-level capital market system, so as to give full play to the synergy effect of the stock bond market, and improve the quality and efficiency of the development of new quality and productivity services. We will implement the 16 measures for the capital market to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises, and give priority to supporting the equity and debt financing of enterprises that break through the "choke" of key core technologies. Further promote the smooth circulation of "raising investment, management and withdrawal" of private venture capital funds, and actively play the unique role of venture capital and equity investment in mining, cultivating and supporting future industries and emerging industries. This will help promote scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and promote high-quality economic development.
On Thursday, the three major indexes collectively corrected, showing weak performance. In terms of capital, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 847.7 billion yuan, 16.5 billion yuan higher than the previous trading day. From the perspective of technical analysis, the Shanghai index fell below the 20 day average, and short-term selling pressure increased. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were worried about the insufficient progress of inflation reduction, and believed that it would take more time to have confidence in reducing interest rates, suggesting that the wait-and-see state of maintaining high interest rates should last longer, and the US stock market took a break. At home, the policy is still positive. The introduction of the comprehensive policy package for real estate has significantly expanded the control space for local and urban policies. This new policy not only helps to release some of the backlog of demand in the real estate market, but also conveys the government's clear policy guidance of "resolving risks in the real estate field". At the same time, the substantial reduction of the mortgage interest rate will effectively reduce the economic pressure on property buyers, which is expected to further stimulate the release of rigid demand and improved demand for housing, and provide strong support for the stability and recovery of the real estate market and the accelerated repair of fundamentals. The short-term market is faced with pressure relief, but the medium-term trend is still in a pattern of sideways shocks. Pay attention to the change of capacity and the support of the lower moving average. In terms of plate selection, investors are advised to pay special attention to household appliances, banking, hydropower and AI themes.
Risk warning:
The overseas economy declined more than expected, and the Sino US trade friction worsened more than expected, leading to the fall in foreign demand and the pressure on domestic exports; The major economies in the world have extended the interest rate increase cycle beyond expectations. The high interest rate environment has significantly slowed the global economic growth and reduced the domestic capital; Risk events triggered by overseas credit contraction may impact market liquidity and interfere with interest rate and exchange rate movements.
