Power equipment: semi-solid sets sail smoothly; new material system stands out
Focus: Zhiji L6 semi-solid loading ignites market hot spots
Reviewing the performance of the solid state battery capital market, we found that from the perspective of the overall trend, the changes in the solid state battery index basically converge with the battery and power equipment index. From March to May 2024, semi-solid mass production and loading and other good news will emerge frequently. At the beginning of April, Zhiji L6 Light Year Solid State Battery Conference will release positive emotions, and semi-solid loading will gradually become clear. Solid state battery loading will accelerate or the index will rise.
Demand: The monthly loading is up month on month, and the penetration rate of solid state batteries is expected to increase by 798MWh in 2023, mainly including Ganfeng Lithium, Weilan New Energy and other enterprises. From January to May 2024, the cumulative loading of solid state batteries will reach 1.62GW, and the month on month growth will decline in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. From March to May, the installation will achieve a relatively rapid growth, of which the monthly loading of solid state batteries in May will be 482.9MWh, with a month on month growth of 30.87%. In the long term, the global shipments of solid state batteries may reach 614.1GWh in 2030, and the CAGR is expected to reach 95% and the penetration rate is expected to reach 10% in the next five years.
Supply: The electrolyte routes are scattered, and the expansion of production is concentrated in the battery sector. The domestic and foreign solid-state battery industry chains are concentrated in the battery sector. The head battery manufacturers carry out a multi line layout in terms of technical routes, covering oxides, sulfides, polymers, etc. The capacity planning of domestic solid state batteries (including semi-solid state batteries) is close to 300GWh, and the capacity will be about 15GWh in 2023. The capacity planning for the supply of solid electrolyte and other key materials is less, which is mainly supplied by the integrated capacity of solid state battery enterprises and the original positive and negative material suppliers on a small scale.
Outlook: optimistic about new material system
The key to improving the energy density of solid state batteries lies in the upgrading and iteration of positive and negative electrode materials; The final form may be nickel cobalt manganese ternary positive electrode with lithium metal negative electrode. From the enterprise side, in the field of positive electrode, Dangsheng Technology has successfully introduced customers such as Qingtao, Weilan and Ganfeng Lithium Battery, and has taken the lead in realizing batch supply; In the field of negative electrode, mainstream negative electrode manufacturers have carried out multi-directional layout on materials for solid state batteries, including but not limited to silicon carbon negative electrode, hard carbon negative electrode and lithium metal negative electrode. As many automobile enterprises, battery and material manufacturers continue to increase their size and layout, solid state batteries may be expected to achieve technological breakthroughs and rapidly promote industrialization field by field. We are optimistic about the continued layout and development of positive and negative pole enterprises in the field of emerging materials in the future.
Investment suggestions: For enterprises that pay attention to the forward-looking layout of solid state battery technology, we believe that the core of improving the energy density of solid state batteries lies in the iteration of material renewal: the negative electrode will be upgraded from graphite to silicon based negative electrode, and then to lithium metal negative electrode; The positive electrode is upgraded to new positive electrode materials such as high nickel ternary, manganese rich lithium base, etc; We recommend leading battery enterprises that actively deploy solid state batteries, such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy; It is suggested to pay attention to Dangsheng Technology and Rongbai Technology with cathode material innovation in the cathode material link; It is suggested to pay attention to leading enterprises such as Putailai, Shanshan and Zhongke Electric in the process of anode materials.
Risk warning: the technical promotion is not as expected; Policy change risk; Demand fell short of expectations.
