Weekly report of food and beverage industry: liquor performance price ratio highlights the bottom opportunity of public products

Liquor -- Focus on the inflection point of Moutai's rating, and be optimistic about the medium and long-term value of liquor leaders

    The current decline of liquor prices is dominated by multiple factors, and the fundamentals are mainly due to the weakening of liquor companies in the off-season, especially the amplification of the emotional impact of the continuous decline of Moutai's rating. The stabilization of Maotai's rating will be a turning point. We still adhere to the 24 year liquor sector investment idea of "leading thinking+bottom reversal", preferentially recommend high-end liquor with certainty of annual revenue performance and strong ability to resist risks, as well as the buying opportunities of secondary high-end white horses at low valuations, and pay attention to the national secondary high-end valuation opportunities.

    Popular products - seize the opportunity to allocate excess returns on snacks, and focus on the bottom opportunity to buy dairy products

    In the snack section, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of income allocation. The annual performance growth of the snack sector was strong, and the fundamentals remained unchanged around the company's guidance and expectations. The inter quarter quarter on quarter growth fluctuation did not change the center of annual performance valuation. At present, the core targets have been less than 20 times. Compared with other sectors, the future performance is expected to remain unchanged, and the downward impact is expected to be less than that of other sectors. Recommend buying Yanjin shops, Jinzai, etc.

    It is recommended to buy the bottom of dairy sector. Dairy Q2 suffered from triple cycle (supply/demand/channel) repression, the performance level became weaker month on month, superimposed on the overall market beta, and the stock price was under pressure, becoming the overall influencing factor for the stock price of the sector. Q2 may be the bottom period of the performance level. In the second half of the year, the supply cycle, one of the three cycles, is expected to improve, and the performance is expected to be better month on month. It is suggested to focus on bottom buying opportunities. In the future, with the improvement of dividend ratio and cycle, it is expected that the valuation will return to a reasonable level and earn money for performance growth. It is recommended to focus on Mengniu, Yili, New Dairy, Miaoke, etc. In addition, the milk powder sector is expected to usher in a performance inflection point throughout the year, and continue to recommend Feihe, Aoyou and other standards.

    Risk warning: weak macro-economy, performance not meeting expectations, market systemic risk