2024 Medium Report Forecast of Building Materials Leading Stocks - Real time Update
It is estimated that 70 million tons will be delivered in the second quarter, which will be the same year on year. The gross profit per ton is expected to be around 50 yuan, and the gross profit per ton will be about 90 yuan in Q2 2013;
At the delivery end, from April to May, we estimated that Q2 Company's cement delivery volume would be 15 million to 16 million tons, a slight year-on-year decline. After Q2 peak shift, some regions had price increases, and the gross profit per ton of cement was estimated to be about 60-65 yuan. Among them, it was estimated that domestic cement would break even, aggregate would be about 30 million tons shipped in a single quarter, and the net profit per ton would be about 8-9 yuan (regardless of exchange rate fluctuations
At the delivery end, it is expected that the delivery will be flat and slightly reduced. At the same time, the effect of price increase in East China is limited, and the gross profit per ton is expected to remain around 50 yuan
At the delivery end, according to the delivery rate of Zhuochuang Jiangxi Cement, which is 50% to 60%, the expected volume still has a year-on-year decline, the price change in East China is limited, and the expected profit still has a loss
The continuous rainfall and recent flood in Guangdong affect the demand release. It is estimated that the Q2 cement shipment is about 3.6 million tons, with a decrease of 18-20%. The gross profit per ton is expected to be between 55-60 yuan. The Jiaoling flood is expected to affect the delivery and transportation costs in 5-7 days
From the perspective of volume, Q2 core North China market and Northeast market demand may still show a year-on-year decline, but the decline should be somewhat narrower than Q1, and the peak shifting in the northern region is better, so the price increase is more obvious. Since May, the price has entered the fast repair cycle, and the ton profit may become positive around May June, but the pressure to make quarterly profits as a whole may still be greater.
The cement plate is judged by Jidong Cement; The real estate sector is more about the de transformation and carry forward of stock projects, maintaining the assumption of certain profitability; The overall development speed of building materials and packaging is relatively fast, but the cost investment is also higher temporarily, so no profit contribution assumption is made.
In terms of production and marketing, we expect that Q2's shipment will still decline by 10%+year on year, mainly due to the increase of regional peak shifting. In terms of price, the price will still decline by about 70 yuan year on year from April to May, and Q2 is expected to still have a small loss on average.
